FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/3) Usually we can count on grains being higher on Wednesday but cycles are rather sickly this week and we wonder if the market could just sit waiting for wheat damage reports. Still, grains look higher here but then lower into May 11-12 so we’ll want to take profits. Hogs may have trouble taking out 7500 and then pull back and cattle is too overbought to chase.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July Chicago wheat longs from 451 with a 445.50 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (5/3) We got filled and the market closed in profits. Support is at 447. Not sure we want to see the market take out 450 again. Seasonally the market is vulnerable and we’ve seen these weather markets quickly give back gains. Open to 465 and 485 eventually. Winter wheat markets were calmer today after Monday’s big-short covering gains as traders await damage reports from a weekend snowstorm that hit western Kansas fields. While some fields are expected to bounce back, those with headed wheat may not, according to one Kansas crop specialist. SRW wheat in the Midwest had its own problems with plentiful rain and flooding over the weekend. The Weather Service forecast major flooding today and Wednesday along parts of the mid-Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio Rivers.
FUNDAMENTALS: As David Streit, the senior lead forecaster at Bethesda, Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group LLC, said in a telephone interview cited by Bloomberg, more than 12 inches of snow fell on ripening wheat in parts of Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Nebraska in the past 24 hours. And while it will take several days before the damage can be assessed accurately as the snow melts, early estimates suggest losses could exceed 50 million bushels, according to Pira Energy.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: May 3 high?; May 5 low; May 7-8 low; May 10 low; May 11-12 low.
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