FOR MONDAY: (4/10) We have a key cycle low for grains by Sunday or early Monday and it can set up a countertrend buy if you want to be long into the USDA report on Tuesday. Weather news is largely good for crops but bearish for prices with the recent widespread rain to be followed by a few days of warm, dry conditions in both the Plains and Midwest. Rain returns to the Midwest on Sunday with severe storms expected in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. Next Tuesday is USDA’s monthly supply and demand reports. A Bloomberg survey showed the trade expects increases in U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks, plus some higher numbers for Argentina and Brazil corn and soybeans.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/10) Bottoming and basing action projects at least 961 for scalpers who want to buy dips. We’re open to upward action this week, which could go to 980 but we would have to buy and hold through the report. We will buy Monday am if conditions are good and the market doesn’t break hard on Sunday night.
OVERALL: Once the report gets out of the way and the market gets over oversold conditions, we have a downward bias still into early May. Need better number to sell from. Seeing at least 933. Freefall on the daily chart would project 895. May look for a 1-2 day bounce and sell again very soon.
SHORT-TERM: (3/13) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May are suggesting 933. Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into April 9; higher into April 13; lower into April 14.
