FOR FRIDAY: (7/6) We have had a bias in cycles toward cycle highs into July 10 but the days after July 4th are always precarious, and cycles are particularly volatile. Weather forecast are warmer and drier but there appears to be enough soil moisture for a few week to prevent major damage. The verdict will still be out on beans with later pollination. With no overnight action to go on we won’t have a clear reaction for over a ½ hour. Given everything, we slight new lows in grains should be bought for buy the fact reaction to China and weather and cycles into Tuesday. Meat grinder action will have us waiting for confirmations and the dust to settle.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/6) Beans are much closer to key support at 847 and if you are into buying the fact of the Chinese tariffs, then there’s a buy zone down there with a target bounce area to 905. Hard to imagine much more and a fall to key support at 798-800 right away. Optimists hope for a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” turnaround. Wheat is a better buy on dips.
WEEKLY CHART: Market made a new weekly chart continuation chart low, which might eventually go to 710-2 if trade disputes and good crops continue. Still, when beans get killed in June they’re very open to pollination problems and recoveries into late July or August. We’re crunching cycles and numbers and will report soon.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally higher into July 6 and July 11; lower into July 12-13.
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