FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) We should see grains recover into the close of the night session but then they look like they turn lower into Friday. Hard to get away with longs in late July and they often sell the bad weather—which is very real. We would take profits on grain longs by the morning and may get short for a few days in case we get a meltdown.
NOV. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold Nov. bean longs from 1001.50 with a 995.50 stop. Exit partials at 1018 and all at 1021.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/20) Market still could reach up to 1018-21 for a more ideal place to take profits. Not sure we have the courage to stick around into Sunday night but if the weather doesn’t change, we could see a massive move up.
NEAR TERM: Beans will easily get up to 1022 with a 78% retracement up to 1033. Given late pollination and plenty of time left here, we have stay open to the 1066 daily chart projection. Cycles are positive into Thursday and stress from weather may continue to add weather premium a few more days.
OVERALL: Technically action is disastrous but we can get recoveries later in the year if there are problems with podding later and yields drop. The projection to 1096 is not out of the question given current weekly chart patterns. Still might see 1069 if weather supports the next week.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Wednesday night; lower Thursday; lower Friday; volatile and higher Sunday.
