FOR MONDAY: (4/17 no change) We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/17) Breakout over 960 easily will reach 976. Cycles look lower Sunday/Monday now and we could retest 961. Market looks like we could get up to 988 before it turns lower again. Will wait until Tuesday to be a buyer. Have to leave it alone with weekend noise and geopolitical tensions. More rain moves through the Midwest the next few days, which will likely prevent the start of spring planting for many farmers. USDA raised its forecast of 2016 crop imports by China to a 4.5% increase, still behind the actual pace. Fears of losses in Argentina continue to wind down, with the forecast still mostly dry for the next two weeks.
OVERALL: Weekly charts still are bearish for 916 and 895 but cycles for grains may hold the market up as late as April 20 or a bit longer toward 988.
SHORT-TERM: (4/17) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May are suggesting 895. Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100. Way too much to ask for without a weather problem.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Volatile and probably lower Sunday/Monday; generally higher into April 20.
