FOR THURSDAY: (4/13) Trade will be position squaring for the long weekend. We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/13) Beans couldn’t get much above the minimum target of 961 and this isn’t the market to be long even if it does make it to 976. Market is often lower on Thursdays and trade won’t want go home too heavily long a bear. Still, printing 966 will turn up the point-and-figure charts and issue a strong buy signal and many cycles support higher prices next week. Will leave it alone. Forecasts continue to look drier for the next two weeks in Argentina, easing concerns about a repeat from flood damage that hurt last year’s crop there.
OVERALL: Weekly charts still are bearish for 916 and 895 but cycles for grains may hold the market up as late as April 20.
SHORT-TERM: (4/13) The most bearish patterns into late April and early May are suggesting 895 . Weekly chart recovery target may only be close to 1100.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into April 13; volatile Sunday; generally higher into April 17 and into April 20.