FOR FRIDAY: (12/16) We’re open to seeing grains hold up 1-3 more days before end of the year selling is likely to hit. Soybeans were higher Thursday because of good demand and hot, dry weather in Argentina. DTN says that’s to be taken seriously with demand has high as it is. Last week’s soybean export sales and shipments were bullish, and total exports running 24 percent more than a year ago. China keeps buying, with the latest sale of 132,000 metric tons supportive to the market. Last week’s corn export sales and shipments were neutral, but corn prices at the U.S. Gulf roughly 50 cents cheaper than at Brazil’s ports, the active export pace should continue well into early 2017. Corn’s main bearish concern is the size of South America’s next harvest.
MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/16) Weather trading happening. Taking out 410 was a rather bearish break. Most likely target is 403.75 or 399.50 now but the trade will probably buy that area for another bounce. Will leave it alone but the chances of a breakout above 420 coming in and leading to higher prices seems high into next week.
WEEKLY CHART: Wheat has been a very dull affair and would seem that at best March wheat might move back toward the 450 region into early January. Seasonally the market often tops out by the January USDA report and turns lower into late February. The Farmer’s Almanac forecast for a dry and mild winter may be supportive to July wheat, which will easily get up to 488-491 if not 509. We can favor longs for at least a month from secondary lows into Dec. 1 and hold at least into the Jan. USDA report.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Dec. 21; lower into Dec. 23; lower into Dec. 31.
