FOR MONDAY: (3/27) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend and look to take more profits and tighten stops. Not willing to bottom-pick and not sure how much of a bounce we will really get next week to make it worthwhile. We do see higher prices after USDA so it will be important to look for a ledge to buy next week for the more bullish grain contracts. Meats look generally lower at least until Tuesday.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July corn shorts from 372.50 with a 367.00 stop. Take profits at 361.75.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/27) This market is looking better but really need to take out 360 if it is going to make funds nervous. First pattern completion is at 361.25 and then 356. We fear a bounce from the 360 area and will exit. Not excited enough to want to be buying. Not clear how much of a recovery we will get this week until it starts.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
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