FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/6) We ‘ve been thinking early frost this year because of a very cool August and now parts of western NE may experience it on Wednesday and that could spook the market more. While the hurricane’s path is unknown, damage to orange groves is likely and those hurricane remnants may hurt Southern harvest. Given a very oversold grains, there’s reason to have short-covering. We still see a recovery for meats this week.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (9/6) We took profits at the day session open and waiting for a consolidated range between 348-362 but wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout if Southern harvest is impacted by Irma. Three-wave rally starting to project 369. Corn conditions declined in the weekly progress report so the market should continue to rally but beans are probably have more potential.
OVERALL: (9/6) We should get another 30 cents lower after the USDA report from some congestion triangle patterns. That could be followed by another 30 cents lower. At some point in October we could have a 26-cent bounce before a final low. Major weekly chart support at 312 should hold.
FUNDAMENTALS: Is the Corn Belt ready for frost? Historically, the median occurrence of first 32 °F freeze happens between September 21 and 30 in Minnesota, the Dakotas, western Nebraska and Wisconsin. By October 31, most of the Corn Belt has experienced its 32 °F freeze. That’s still weeks away – but a small portion of western Nebraska could see a potential frost Wednesday morning.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Sept. 12.
