FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Three-day weekends are always precarious with South American and winter weather for wheat, and it’s usually safer to stand aside. Will go with pattern analysis but it’s possible that beans will be complete at 1031-2, and wonder if we will get a sell the fact or a big reversal if weather patterns shift over the weekend. Tired of gambling with weather and we’ll mostly stand aside.
MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (2/16) Market didn’t give us a pullback and doubt that we’ll see 1011– and if it does come, it will be a 4th-wave pullback after 1031-2 comes in. The market is probably a sale at 1031 if you want to gamble for 20 cents but they may buy that back up. Not thinking a major fall is coming yet. Extended target if dire weather develops is project 1065-1072. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is reporting that 56% of Argentina’s soybeans and 58% of its corn are in poor to very poor condition, although the group did not downgrade its production estimates in its latest weekly report.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into Friday.
