FOR FRIDAY: We missed a speculative cycle into Friday which last has caused the major cycle top last June and we think it is probably repeating. That will have us cautious top-picking until at least Sunday.
JULY SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
SWING TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold July bean shorts from 938 with a 946.50 stop.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/16) Beans didn’t recover as much but they are still vulnerable if the market gets carried away by the wheat. Market stalled at channel resistance and much above 942 would be friendly. Beans did issue a breakdown so this rally is just fund-swinging. Key support now to 919 and then all the way to 903. Stay with shorts. Not sure we’ll get much above 930 for new shorts.
OVERALL: Daily chart suggesting 895 and if acreage increases, it’s possible that lower prices to 837.50 or 850 will come. Still, for now, they may run it up to 962 and it may be a gift for hedgers and cash sellers.
WEEKLY CHART: Given that the market is close to 895, key support, we wonder if a breakdown to 837 or 850 is likely before it’s done when hedging pressure enters.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into June 19.
