FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We hate trading around July 4th. Usually you have to sell and hedge corn if it makes highs around there. Beans are too far from pollination. Crop has gotten enough rain that a week of heat shouldn’t be a deal killer, and there appears to be enough rain in the forecast. We would use rallies to hedge Dec. corn and be done by July 9 at the latest. Verdict is out on beans and we have to wait for better prices.
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (7/2) Beans couldn’t take out the breakout point at 885 basis July and are going for the lower support at 854. That would take Nov. to 876.50. That’s probably a buy area for a day but the deep break looks ugly. Still, there are more cycle highs the next few days so you can bottom-pick, but wheat and corn may be better.
OVERALL: Possible progress into next week if hot and dry get extended would be 920 and 941 on July and get Nov. up to 942 and 963. Usually if you get a spike into July 10 or so seasonally, you have to sell and hedge it.
WEEKLY CHART: Market made a new weekly chart continuation chart low, which might eventually go to 710-2 if trade disputes and good crops continue. Still, when beans get killed in June they’re very open to pollination problems and recoveries into late July or August. We’re crunching cycles and numbers and will report soon.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into July 2- 3; mixed into July 5; lower into July 6; higher into July 10.
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