FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/18) Looking like we missed shorts, as Wednesday looks lower but the next few days could get volatile if we get any unexpected events. Not sure what to do given incomplete upward patterns so we’ll wait for the morning.
DEC. CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (10/18) While we favor higher prices for 355 or 360, we see no point in chasing the upside, as this market can easily disappoint around harvest.
WASDE: (10/12) U.S. corn production is also forecast higher, up 96 million bushels from September for a total of 14.280 billion bushels. Supply and use changes essentially offset, with U.S. corn ending stocks up 5 million bushels from a month ago. Global corn stocks are down 1.5 million from a month ago, to 201.0 million.
OVERALL: The most bullish case for corn would allow a 3-wave rally up to 374-6 but that’s expecting too much. Eventually harvest pressure will do this market in as seasonal lows come in Thanksgiving. Cycles are higher much of next week and the daily chart patterns could go back up to 355-60 before the market turns lower again. We should get out on any harvest pressure over the weekend rather than ride this market up for a week with a drawdown.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower Wednesday; higher Thursday.