Author: admin

TESLA READY FOR NEXT PUSH HIGHER 

 

Looking for a pullback to 303-305 to add and you could start at 310.50.   Key resistance is at 373 and 404 and 414 short-term.  Larger targets weeks and months out suggest 461 and 537.  The market is fine as long as 250 holds. We may consider adding at 303-310  but wondering if it will take a few days to get there but this market moves fast.  We had predicted the entry at 210 and at 240 in previous Financial and ETF Timers.

 

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CRUDE OIL AND ENERGY ETFS GIVING BUY SIGNAL

(10/31)  We had a cycle low today and overnight we hit a minor breakout out number and that may open a chance for 7175 into Sunday  Geopolitical cycles are complex into Sunday night and there are concerns about Lebanese fuel depots being targeting and pre-emtive strikes against Iran coming so this mess is far from over and we should be accumulating oil at these oversold area with ETFs like USO. There are also hopes for peace with Lebanon in the mix.

Cycle highs dominate into Sunday but the market could be lower on Monday and then higher into Nov. 7^th and Nov. 9^th and Nov. 11^th and Nov. 15th.  That is enough time to give us a major breakout at 7225 and get to 8000.  We have to buy the dips as the lower targets seem less likely now through mid-Nov. and there is too much time for a breakout.

Hence there is not that much time for a fall to lower targets of 6330 and we will assume higher prices into at least mid-November but a the 1 year cycle could create a larger set-back from there.

We like to trade energy with ETFs like USO and XLE:

USO:  (10/31)   We have to buy dips with higher prices into mid-November with next resistance at 7300 and then 7530.  Buy targets at 7160-65 and 7130-35 and the risk is to about 6750.

XLE:   (10/31)    Mixed data as crude is better but stocks are not but oil stocks are very oversold and have good value and it may be too much to squeeze a few more drops out. Time to accumulate. Hard to see this market falling apart. Some longer-term stock market cycles are friendly into the end of the year after election wranglings are over.

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WHAT’S AHEAD FOR GOLD?

(10/21)  Gold hit 2755 overnight. The extended target is 2788 and 2800 will easily come in.   Not likely to take out 2688 on pullbacks.   The pullback in November could go to max 2480 but that may be asking too much.  .   There are patterns that would allow 2800 and we have until the end of the month.  Cycles suggest we cannot count on pullbacks as it is in a war market.

Last Friday, we noticed the 89 day cycle which kicks in a positive way Oct. 18-29^th and that will allow gold a longer period of time to extend.

LOOKING AHEAD:

The next strong move up will be  probably Nov. -Jan. 2025 and then into  Sept 2025 and another one due into Dec. 2026.   Larger Patterns from the October low point to 2882-2925 on the next run higher and is that the January high or does that happen sooner with X-a factors?

CYCLE SYTHESIS:  topping Monday and retracing into Tuesday/Wednesday; higher into Oct. 29^th.

LARGER CYCLES:   We are watching highs into Jan. 2025 and major cycle highs into Sept. 2025.  Longer-term gold cycles peak into the years 2027-28 and the most exaggerated projection for gold into that time window is something like 4918 . With a major top for stocks since the depression low in 1932 into this year, gold may take off as a major asset if the government does not ban it as it has in the past.  Still, it would take a while for that to happen.

GDX: Looking for at least 4540 but 4700 is easily obtainable this week. The most extended target is 5500 but that would seem a lot for this week but could easily be a target by December or January.

GLD:  GLD should hit 262-3 by next Monday.  We are not clear where the best entry is but there is a gap at 251.40 and 251.00 will probably not come out.

If there is a crisis, it would go to the 3^rd wave target of 272-275.     We have some on as we have to hedge world tensions but not worth betting the house on.

GLD LONGER-TERM:  Upper targets at 272 and 282 and 303 and we do no not have time windows but look at our analysis of long-term cycles above. Possibly into the January high.

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S & P Patterns Still Suggest More Upside

S & P cash got to 5732 overnight and is closer to the highs of the continuous session. NQ is staying above the key 20200 region. If the market is healthy and higher on schedule today, resistance is first at 5772 and 5787 and above there to 5795 and 5820 and we do have until the 16th -17th to get up higher. Pullbacks are likely to stay above 5720. We have a high into Thursday and then a 2 day pullback and more highs into the 16th
.
NQ closed above 20200. Above 20456 and we can project at least 20771 the next few day. We are open to 20971 next week. We are in topping mode over the next few we ks and between Hurricane Milton and waiting on Israel, it’s hard to get too friendly although our cycles suggest that we should get a nice pop into Thursday.
.
For now we will go with this:
Extended cash targets into Oct 16-17th are 5844-60 at least and then pullback may be brief and only hit 5800. The uppermost target is 5970-6009. We cannot negate that possibility yet but the later in the month it gets beyond Oct 21st or so the lesser the
chances of it happening. NQ 100 looks like it will retest the July high in October which is 20971 on the continuation chart for futures with upper resistance at 21200. First resistance is at 20514 and then at 20771 and then 20800. We are keeping 21230 in our back pocket for
later in the month, it seems less likely right away and Megacaps seem rather stretched out although they inched through key highs of the week.

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A PAUSE IN THE ACTION–PULLBACKS COMING FOR STOCKS AND METALS

Markets are getting stretched out  Silver has an upper pattern completion at 3303 and  Dec. gold at 2678 or max 2694.  Patterns suggest that we could start a 7 week pullback in gold to 2440 and on silver to 2850.  Its hard being short with geopolitical tensions but there are reasons to take partial profits with patterns and price and time coming in.

The Stock market is also a bit stretched out. NQ futures could do a bit more but many Megacaps have completed first patterns to 195 for Amazon and 573 for META and 254 for Tesla and NVDA is close to 122.00.  We do expect the S & P cash to at least pullback 100 points from max. 5755 but it could stall lower and we doubt that 5605 will come out on pullbacks into the first week of October.

Bitcoin is also due for a pullback with the energy complex.  While the bull markets are not done on these, they are due for a pause.  Stay in touch with our daily service for new entries and new projections for the seasonal October rally.  Is there hope after the election? How long can we keep peace going with world tensions rising.

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Gold is Far From Done to the Upside with Current Run

Geopoltical cycles in September are tense and you can see it with Iran/Israel and Gaza but also Russia/Ukraine/Belarus and probably Taiwan and China will heat up. That should continue to support gold and the dollar issued a breakdown signal and could hit 99.50 and 97.50 and that will support gold in September.

We did more research and we are willing to be more patient with gold. We always worry about end of the month fund profit-taking and that could hit Thursday and Friday but it does not have to be dramatic.

Patterns still look like 2650 or 2669 needs to come but it seems until later in Sept.  .  We looked out into September and the larger cycles and seasonals are supportive so we probably need to be patient about our pattern completion   Once 2650-2669  completes, a larger pullback to 2285 will happen into the October low and that would be followed by a rally to 2882 into the January high.  The pattern there is accurate but we are estimating the time window for manifestation.

Entries are soon as the market is often lower at the end of the month on fund position squaring. Stay on top of this exciting market and trade with ETFs also in our ETF Timer which follows GLD and GDX for miners.

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STOCKS AND CRUDE OVERBOUGHT–WHAT’S NEXT?

Stocks are on their 8^th day up and are struggling early on and we have been looking for a pullback into Friday/Sunday.  We did let you know intraday that a pullback to cash 5400-5390 might be all we get and then we see higher stocks into the end of August toward S & P cash 5600.

Crude is sideways waiting on the peace talks but we still like buying pullbacks into the weekend as the market looks higher next week.

We still like metals but we do have mixed signals this week and silver getting to 2710 on futures would not be a shock and gold has turned red.   We do not like Bitcoin this week and it has turned negative and is lower into Friday.

Tech still looks good on pullbacks and we have updated Mega caps below. This would be a 2 week trade.

We are not clear what will happen in September for stocks but it is seasonally lower and the seasonal low into October will probably happen.  How deep it goes will depends on geopolitical events and cycles there are still intense into August 26^th when a major world event could happen.

So not much to do without pullbacks into late Friday and Sunday and those are trader plays but if NQ goes to 20100 on futures, there may be some money to be made for traders and NVDA could get to 122-126. Investors have to make sure S & P cash 4950 holds during the Sept/Oct. sell-off and will the trade do anything before the election and will anyone accept the result?

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STOCKS AND CRUDE OVERBOUGHT:

Stocks are on their 8^th day up and are struggling early on and we have been looking for a pullback into Friday/Sunday.  We did let you know intraday that a pullback to cash 5400-5390 might be all we get and then we see higher stocks into the end of August toward S & P cash 5600.

Crude is sideways waiting on the peace talks but we still like buying pullbacks into the weekend as the market looks higher next week.

We still like metals but we do have mixed signals this week and silver getting to 2710 on futures would not be a shock and gold has turned red.   We do not like Bitcoin this week and it has turned negative and is lower into Friday.

Tech still looks good on pullbacks and we have updated Mega caps below. This would be a 2 week trade.

We are not clear what will happen in September but it is seasonally lower and the seasonal low into October will probably happen.  How deep it goes will depends on geopolitical events and cycles there are still intense into August 26^th when a major world event could happen.

So not much to do without pullbacks into late Friday and Sunday and those are trader plays but if NQ goes to 20100 on futures, there may be some money to be made for traders. Investors have to make sure 4950 holds during the Sept/Oct. sell-off and will the trade do anything before the election and will anyone accept the result?