Will the Stock Market Surprise us with A Rebound this Week?  

Today is shaping up to be the most bearish session of the week for the stock market —barring an unexpected upside surprise from NVDA earnings for Wednesday , which remains a major sentiment driver for the broader tech complex. A negative shock, on the other hand, could weigh heavily on global risk assets. 

Last week, we highlighted that the next meaningful cycle low is likely to emerge in the first week of December. Our broader outlook still anticipates a rally extending into January, but with recent softness across equities, the question now is whether that January move becomes a secondary high rather than a decisive breakout. 

A few weak sessions are not enough to invalidate the larger trend structure, but price action does suggest rising odds that S&P 500 cash 6244 could come into play. For now, the 6550 level on cash remains a critical area of support, and the market’s response there will likely set the tone for December positioning. 

We are not changing our core forecast at this time. It will take additional market confirmation before we adjust downside targets for either the S&P or NQ. By Friday, the structure should be clearer as volume firms and traders react to key levels. 

Metals: No change in outlook for gold and silver—our timing work continues to favor buying opportunities in the first few weeks of December. 

Energy: Crude oil still appears vulnerable to another breakdown; patience remains warranted before attempting long exposure. 

Crypto: Bitcoin continues to set up constructively, but correlations with NQ remain a concern. A sharp equity sell-off could open the door to significantly better value—possibly even toward 80,000, should the 92,000 threshold give way. This week had been the earliest window for a potential buy, but volatility may offer a deeper entry.

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Stocks Ready for a Pause

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Stocks should pause after today and pull back into Monday, but then continue higher. We are
not expecting anything dramatic to the downside, but it could be a sell on the fact that the
the government is reopening or some stalling and bickering that delays it. We are at a point where buyers can wait until Monday for better levels.Crude oil still could recover today’s losses by Monday, but it may not mean much in the big
scheme of things.


Bitcoin still has more to do by next week, but it is setting up, so keep an eye on it for a
significant buy opportunity next week.
 
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Recovery in Silver is Stronger than Gold

Recovery in Silver Is Stronger Than Gold DEC SILVER. 11.11.25 – Silver is stronger than gold and has already hit 5109 overnight. There is time for an extension to 5219, but above 5225, a new bullish pattern would allow for acceleration to 5720. Silver has different rhythms than gold, so we will stay open.

We do expect to be able to buy Silver closer to 41-42 in December and the next push up in the winter will at least go to 6100. Cycles are similar to gold, and we expect to see a higher price in the very short term, with the upward movement likely to be completed by November 25th.

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When will the BTC carnage end?

NOV. BITCOIN FUTURES (CBOE)
 
(11/5). The bounce off 99331 is sickly and may stall at 105200. Thursdays are often
lower, so we remain open to 92499 next. The market remains in trouble through the week of
November 17th, so assume the bears will stay in control, even though we occasionally
get some  absurd blips.
 
WEEKLY CLART SELL SIGNAL: : We received major confirmation with a
print of 112,000 weeks ago that the market had topped  which allowed us to project a first fall to 92000 and max. to 80,000 into the November low. There are more bearish patterns indicating a deeper fall, but the fundamentals do not support this. 
 
OVERALL: We remain bearish until November 17-21. 

Sideways Trading Pre-FOMC, Rising Downside Risks, and Gold Rally Forecast

Market Summary 10/22:
One week before the FOMC, expect sideways market action. Some stocks and sectors are holding up, but the risk of a decline next week is rising. Bonds and notes may react positively to the FOMC but could peak and sell off. Energy is recovering from oversold conditions, but no buy signal exists yet, and November seasonals are weak.

Gold 10/22 Year-End Outlook:
By mid-December, cycles suggest a gold rally. A three-wave pullback or volatile congestion triangle is possible. A secondary high is likely this week. Gold typically rises from Dec. 15 to Jan. 15, with messier geopolitical cycles into the new year.

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How Much More Upside for Gold?

Gold

MORNING GOLD 10/15
Gold at new highs projects 4253 next, with an extended target of 4323. The market must surpass 4157 to appear toppy. Avoid capping this market; there’s still time for gains. This market offers few easy entry points. Rally potential persists until Oct. 23-24, but caution is advised once the minimum target is hit. Silver has stronger fundamentals and more potential.

MORNING SILVER 10/15
Silver hasn’t broken 5250 yet, but highs of 5395, 5420, or 5500 are possible next week. Don’t cap it. Playing this market requires courage, even with expected new highs. A recovery is likely by Oct. 22-25. If new highs occur into November, daily charts suggest targets of 5295 or 5500.

Is the stock market bounce for real?

October 13th Market Summary

Bargain hunters are stepping in, but we’ll wait for an overbought market into Friday/Sunday before trimming longs and eyeing the bigger correction into October or early November.

NQ flashed the clearest sell signal, yet in these wild ending Elliott wave diagonal patterns, expect crazy pullbacks and potential new highs. Gold and silver have another two weeks of upside—targeting 5395 for silver and 4200+ for gold, which look achievable now. Recent pullbacks have been shallow after big spurts like today’s.

Still not bullish on Bitcoin; waiting to load up at the November low. It may recover alongside NQ. Traders are buzzing this week, but the broader investment play should extend at least to October 31st, possibly longer for stocks.

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DEC. S & P FUTURES AND CASH

Enjoy our new user-friendly format for S&P Analysis!

MORNING COMMENTS:  

Cash hit 6634 overnight, and let’s see if that leads to acceleration at 6657 on cash which could happen before FOMC on Wednesday or the minimum is done. .  . NQ Dec. futures hit the 24630 area that we mentioned last night, and are starting a correction.

DEC FUTURES NEW THOUGHTS:

Futures are positive for an extended 5th wave to 6719 max. If 6510 holds.  That could be a pre or post reaction to FOMC but does not have to happen. Pullback to 6598 , OR 6573, or  6538, possible as  4th wave.  The extended diagonal target is likely now at 6719 and is not favoring the upper resistance at 6750.  Not clear how this fits into our timing models. Will the 4th wave come after the FOMC announcement?  That would make sense based on cycles.  

 

Bottom line: We usually avoid fighting the long side on a Tuesday, but NQ is stretched out quite a bit, and I wonder if the market will become congested while waiting for the news on Wednesday.  Again.  We may only get a 250-point reaction to the downside over the next week on the S & P

 

Market Recap

·        Cash Index (Monday Close): 6,615

·        December Futures Settlement: 6,674.25

·        Cash/Futures Spread: ~59.25

Key Observations

·        Correction Risk:
Current technical and cyclical indicators do not suggest a significant correction. Until cash breaks 6,212, deeper downside projections remain speculative. Despite geopolitical stressors (Nepal, France, Japan, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk), the market has largely shrugged off risk events.

·        Resistance Levels:

o   Cash: Key resistance at A breakout above 6,625 could extend toward 6,653, with an upper stretch target at 6,692–6,700.

o   December Futures: Breakout above 6,680 targets 6,719. Extreme upside not expected beyond 6,800 in the near term.

·        Support Levels:

o   Futures: Initial weakness if 6,519 breaks, followed by 6,500, 6,473, and 6,425.

o   Cash: Minor breakdown starts at 6,545; stronger confirmation at 6,360. Only a break below 6,212 would open the door to a potential move toward 5,600.

Short-Term Timing & Cycles

·        Best Window for Pullback: September 17–24.

·        NASDAQ Cycle: Remains friendly into October 2, suggesting relative resilience.

·        FOMC Considerations:

o   The session on Sept. 17 could trigger volatility if the expected 50 bps rate cut is not delivered. Even if delivered, the risk of a “sell the fact” response remains.

o   Historical tendency: markets trade higher on the Tuesday before a rate cut.

Seasonal and Geocosmic Factors

·        Late September/Early October: Historically softer period, with risk of a 400-point pullback (e.g., from 6,700 toward 6,285, probably the max).

·        Seasonal Recovery: Strength often returns into late October; cycles show potential for renewed buying Sept. 29–Oct. 3.

·        October Weakness: Expect pressure into the week of Oct 5-Oct. 11, before typical year-end seasonal strength resumes.

·        Geopolitical Overlay: Ongoing risks from Ukraine, Europe’s financial fragility, and U.S.–China tensions could serve as catalysts for downside shocks.

Strategic Outlook

·        Upside Targets (Fall/Winter): Extended cash projection to 7,144, with bullish cycles supportive into January 2026.

·        Downside Scenarios: A corrective move to 6,375 is most probable; a deeper slide to 5,800–5,600 would require a severe geopolitical or financial shock.

·        Trading Strategy:

o   Use rebounds to trim positions or take partial profits, especially on late entries.

o   Avoid aggressive top-picking; cycles suggest higher levels remain possible.

o   Maintain awareness of Fed timing (Sept. 17–18) and seasonal patterns.

Cycle Snapshot

·        Sept. 17–18 (FOMC): Volatility risk; likely downside reaction

·        Sept. 19–24: Pullback window

·        Sept. 29–Oct. 3: Recovery phase

·        Oct. 6: Higher

·        Oct. 11: Seasonal weakness

Bottom Line

The S&P remains in a ranging bull market with resilient upside momentum. Near term, watch Sept. 17–24 for a corrective phase. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a wild card. Central cycle highs point toward January 2026, with  7,144 as a longer-term extended target.

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Gold Cycle Still Strong Until Sept. 25th

Gold Cycle Still Strong Until Sept. 25th

December Gold

MORNING  COMMENTS:  Gold is only up slightly, but it will not take much to take out 3715, and that could continue the rally, and even 3830 later in the month is not far-fetched. The pullback we saw Thursday, which projected as low as 3571, is not being reflected in the cycles, and geopolitical tensions are too high to give it much of a chance.

 

WORSE CASE PULLBACK: We did get a reaction off the key resistance area, but it stayed under 3715 and could pull back to 3571 and max. 3571.  That will set up a buy.

 

BOTTOM LINE: If the market surpasses 3715, it will then likely take off toward 3789, 3841, and 3885.  The most bullish pattern for the Nov. high is 3969 or 4100 even.

 

We must remember that this market will be higher until September 25.     Gold will have to take out 3495 to negate the uptrend.  We continue to underestimate this market and expect acceleration rather than capitulation.

 

LARGER PICTURE: The current move is starting to project 4508 and 4909. As indicated by the monthly chart, we are not yet clear when that will materialize. However, we have noted cycle highs into November of this year and into May 2026.

OVERALL: The next major cycle high is expected in November 2025.

LARGER CYCLES:  .   We are watching highs into Nov. 2025.  Longer-term gold cycles peak in the years 2027-28, and the most exaggerated projection for gold in that time window is around  4,918 but much higher is possible if we do get some of the economic collapses in the world that have been pending with 115 trillion dollars of world debt.  . With a major top for stocks since the Depression low in 1932, gold may become a significant asset if the government does not ban it, as it has in the past.  Still, it would take a while for that to happen.

The ETF GLD is projecting 350 this fall .  

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World Tension Cycles and the Stock Market in September

World Tension Cycles and the Stock Market in September

War cycles are tense in September.   Israel is bombing Yemen again.  Venezuela has called up 4.5 million soldiers, and US ships are moving that way.  Maduro has been accused of being a Narco-politician, and there is a move to stop the drug trade coming out of there.  Peace is already breaking down, and Europe continues to push toward war, so will Trump sanction Russia and create some Sept messes?  Something is expected to upset the stock market in September, which is supportive for gold and unfavorable for cryptocurrencies.  Currently, it also appears that Europe and the IMF are considering bailouts and further dissolution of the French government. Will Macron use the crisis to take more power?

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