Crude Oil In Trouble

Crude Oil

Crude oil in Trouble

Crude violated a key support zone this morning at 7600 and the break should mean a move to 6905.  Recessionary fears are up.  We cannot get too bearish as we move into the driving season and gasoline prices usually go higher into June and pull the complex up.

Energy stocks have also been falling as the ETF for energy stocks, the XLE failed to get through 8800 and issued a buy signal, and seems to be in trouble.  Still, it is one of the better sectors to own. Still, if 7900 comes out, it could break to 6600 eventually.  Chances are it will hold 8000 short-term. We do think stocks will move higher after the May 3rd FOMC meeting and pull the XLE back higher for a few weeks.

Natural Gas is closer to a bottom finally and we are watching the ETF UNG as it is trading around 7.00 and a good buy for scooping up multiple shares Natural Gas futures should rally to 13.50 into the year 2025 once the bottom comes in. 

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-Barry 

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Where is gold headed?

Gold

 

Where is Gold headed?
Gold has to take out 2008 to issue a sell signal and then the max. a pullback would be to 1940 or 1923.  It is very overbought.  Cycles would give it a chance to hold up much of next week with next Tuesday being very volatile.  We have to favor the pattern of 2062-65 manifesting.  Above 2070, the market could explode.  We are not seeing too much to knock it down until after April 20th and that may be only brief.

We are getting too close to a 3-day weekend and overbought conditions to expect that upper targets will come in today.  Still, we like next week and we warned you that we do not see much weakness in the cycles.   The most bearish pattern would stop at 2065-2072 and pull back to 1940.  The more bullish pattern would allow 2178 next and confirm the May high to 2285.

-Barry 

So why wait? Subscribe to our financial market reports today at https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans and start making informed investment decisions with the guidance of Barry Rosen and the Fortucast team. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to profit from the current crude oil market conditions.”

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One More Pullback for Energy Next Week

One More Pullback for Energy Next Week

Crude oil held up well and the May contract is not likely to take out 7700 and still has weak cycles next week and possibly a few days into the following week.  The more ideal pattern would suggest a strong sell-off to 6250 but that may not be realistic unless there is some huge event.  We are more interested in buying that pullback and looking for higher prices into June.  The ETFs USO and XLE and XOP should also pull back and set up nice buys.

Natural gas futures need one more low to 1.80 on the May contract to put in a major bottom.  We see higher natural gas from this low into the Year 2025 and it may get up to 13.50-14.50.  The ETF, UNG, is also very oversold and worth buying when Natural Gas bottoms.

Stay in touch with our latest thinking daily with the Fortucast Financial Timer and the Fortucast ETF timer.  One Month trials is 97.00.

-Barry 

So why wait? Subscribe to our financial market reports today at https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans and start making informed investment decisions with the guidance of Barry Rosen and the Fortucast team. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to profit from the current crude oil market conditions.”

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When is the next gold entry?

When is the next gold entry?
Gold is far from done and still has cycle highs into early May and larger cycles are supportive into 2024.   The market is currently in a pullback situation and will be set up for the next advance.  Where is the best entry and when will it be?  Cycles are volatile this week and we might do a fake-out new high to 2058 and then still retrace from there.  Stay on top of this exciting market and find out how to trade it with ETFs like GLD or gold miners stocks in the ETF GDX.   Stay in touch with the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer.  1 month’s trial is 97.00.

-Barry 

So why wait? Subscribe to our financial market reports today at https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans and start making informed investment decisions with the guidance of Barry Rosen and the Fortucast team. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to profit from the current crude oil market conditions.”

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Finally a Break for Crude Oil Inflation

Finally a Break for Crude Oil Inflation

“Are you looking for a break in crude oil inflation? Our expert analyst and trader, Barry Rosen, says it’s time to pay attention to the crude oil market. According to Barry, crude has broken key levels and is projecting a bearish trend in the coming weeks.

Cycle lows are expected to dominate into late March and the first few weeks of April. The ETF’s for oil are vulnerable with this drop, so both USO and XLE for oil stocks are not yet done. The good news is, with Fortucast’s financial market reports, you can stay on top of daily developments and find out how to take advantage of these moves.

Barry has been a trusted voice in the financial industry for over 30 years, providing accurate and timely predictions for traders and investors. With Fortucast’s financial market reports, you’ll have access to his insights and strategies, as well as the perspectives of our team of expert analysts.

So why wait? Subscribe to our financial market reports today at https://fortucast.com/market-reports/financial#plans and start making informed investment decisions with the guidance of Barry Rosen and the Fortucast team. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to profit from the current crude oil market conditions.”

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Bitcoin Finally Comes Alive. What’s Next?

Bitcoin Finally Comes Alive. What’s Next?

Cycles for Bitcoin are strong into the 3rd week of April. The background noise is finally there to push people back into Bitcoin.  The banking crisis is not solved because the FDIC wasted its huge reserves bailing out the corporate technology sector.  Where is the market heading?  You can also trade it with ETFs like GBTC.  What are the targets?  Get our latest information in the Fortucast Financial Timer or the Fortucast ETF timer.  One month trial only 97.00.   

-Barry 

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Silicon Valley Banking Crisis: Cracks in the Markets

Cracks in the Markets and the Economy

The Silicon Valley Banking crisis and then,

that of Signature Bank on Sunday are the beginning of cracks appearing.

  • The FDIC rode to the rescue but will the band-aid solve the larger problem of raising rates from 0 to 5% in a year? 

  • What will happen at next week’s FOMC meeting? 

  • We do not see the correction in the stock market being over until April, so how low will it go? 

  • Moreover, there is a bankruptcy cycle into late May that we last saw in 1873 during a Panic Year. Will it repeat? 

  • Is it connected to the US debt ceiling?  

Today’s excitement is not over.  Stay on top of these markets with Fortuast Timers. One month trial only 97.00.

So how far lower are these markets going?  When will it end?  Stay on top of our short-term and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Market Timers.  One-month trials for the financial or ETF timers are only 97.00.   Exciting moves ahead!

-Barry

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Powell Throws a Wrench into the Markets

Powell Throws a Wrench into the Markets

It turns out that retracements that the highs we were seeing for many markets into Friday are now retracement highs as the action for Tuesday’s low were too impulsive to the downside.  With the higher dollar due to a perceived 50 bps hike.

  • Patterns on March futures in the S & P  suggest a 3-wave recovery to 4045 and then the market will start heading lower.
  • Many commodities tanked and gold and silver, and platinum still have much more time and room to fall now.
  • The Dollar could get to 111.00 to 113.00.

So how far lower are these markets going?  When will it end?  Stay on top of our short-term and long-term forecasts with Fortucast Market Timers.  One-month trials for the financial or ETF timers are only 97.00.   Exciting moves ahead!

-Barry

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For short-term traders and moderately active swing futures traders. Markets covered: S&P 500 T-notes Dollar Euro Gold Silver Crude Oil Bitcoin Futures.

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Ready to Launch?

Ready to Launch?

  • The stock market has put in some positive divergences and the MACD is turning up.
  • Needing NQ 100 futures to take out 12210 and then we can start a recovery rally next week.
  • S & P cash is holding up and could be at 4077 next week.
  • Usually, the week before FOMC is lower and it will be hard for the stock market to hold up past March 13th.   What lies ahead after FOMC?

-Barry

Stay on top of specific entries and exits for the next explosive moves on these markets into early March.   Get a trial for the Fortucast ETF timer or the Fortucast Financial timer for 97/month on our introductory trial.

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LONGER-TERM CYCLES FOR THE US AND WORLD

LONGER-TERM CYCLES FOR THE US AND WORLD

 

GENERAL ECONOMIC INSIGHTS:

We have plenty of tensions rising as we move into April. Geopolitical cycles are intense

into the week of March 12-16 th with increasing war tensions as the US is absurdly

thinking that they can win in a long-term nuclear war against Russia and Russia and

China keeps moving closer to joining forces. There are some climaxes in April 13 th and

the difficult cycle will be dominating until May. In general, This cycle increases tension

and stress and with the war tensions in the air, something is going to pop up in Europe

and Ukraine and we still have China playing games in Taiwan as the US continues its

game of chicken in the skies with Chinese planes.

You can see why April is not going to be a great month for the stock market and the

dollar will continue to rally against the Euro with the dollar going to 110-113 and the

Euro probably falling to 97-101.

Higher dollars tend to hurt gold and it is a myth that gold is a hedge against inflation, in

reality, gold only is sought when governmental trust in currencies goes out the window

which could happen in May and June as the debt ceiling crisis comes to a peak. Gold

has a short-term bounce finally coming but it may not mean much.

Meanwhile, we probably have 2-3 more rate hikes into June, and only when the FED

breaks the camels back and we worry about recession more strongly in the 3 rd and 4 th

quarters, will interest rates come down again and stocks will respond to the second half

of the year with another swoon.

Cycles into April 1-May 6th this will increase world tensions and increase unexpected

events. We might see more earthquakes and natural disasters. .

I have not had enough time to look at all the cycles for the next few years but big the

world debt crisis is not going to go away these problems have been boiling and brewing

for years and governments make wars to get out of crises as was the case with World

War 2 after the depression. I have a sense that 2023 is a better year for prosperity in

the first ½ of the year than 2024 but there is a steady decline coming from the US as we

move into later years in the decade and having your gardens and greenhouses, sources

of power, and being in safe communities are things to think about.

Cycles for stock market look better in May and June but seasonally that is also when

stocks top out. Still, a 13 year cycle is up into June and we need to see how it will

impact certain countries will be dependent on their economies Unlikely it will happen in

the US but the debt ceiling crisis is another way for governments to manipulate us.

 

The recessionary cycles are peaking itn June 19, 2023. The stock market will initially

like a recession as it means the FED will be forced to lower rates in the 2 nd half of the

year and the market may be trading that idea for the May/June rally.

Looking ahead, we have to look for bargains on defense stocks and sporting goods as a

12 year cycle and will support their growth in the next year above other sectors. We

would look to buy dips at the general stock market low which is early January. The

best ETFs for Defense are ITA and XAR. ITA is a bit overbought but XAR has some

upside potential to 118-20.

Natural gas looks like it has a long-term uptrend and has bottomed and should be

higher into the year 2025. Europe avoided a crisis with a mild winter but how long with

that last? Natural gas has a key 29.5 year cycle and the next 2 years look good. Still,

UNG, the ETF for natural gas did bottom at 7.00 and should not fall more. Natural gas

got to below 2.00 in Feb and should rally to 13.00 eventually and there are still

shortages in the world even if the European cold winter did not manifest this year.

Worldwide food shortages will also fuel inflation as grain cycles are set for a cycle high

into May 2023. There are grain future ETFs like SOYB for soybeans and CORN for

corn and even cotton that will do well this year as there are several drought cycles due

to hit the Midwest this summer and only Mars in watery nakshatras may save us a bit.

BAL is the ETF for cotton. Grain futures may not bottom until April when a wet spring

will delay plantings and then we will have a hot summer.

April 2024 is a pivotal moment for the US. There is a key 248-year cycle of revolution

going back to the US founding. In similar cycles for other great civilizations like Rome,

did lead to a major dethroning of power and it is clear that China wants to take over the

mantle of a world leader and that the US is sinking. Can it be saved? This cycle is

long and carried into 2024-25. There will be a crisis next year but I am more hopeful

now that the 12-year cycle will help a positive transformation into early June 2024.

 

financial overview

 

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