Metals Have Key Cycle low for Wednesday

Gold

KEY METALS BUY SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY

The CPI is due on on Wednesday and we think it will be inflationary. Metals actually do not like inflation.  That may give metals one last push lower and gold is close to key support at 1922 and 1914 and GLD to 175.50. 

  Lower support is 1914 and we should get that pattern completed on Wednesday.    Above 1955 and 1960 we might be more friendly and not worry about 1921.  Gold would at least go to 2010   We see cycle highs into late October and early Nov. and we have a crisis cycle setting up in early October and we last saw it around Sept 11, 2001 with the 9/11 event.  Something major could happen that weak and lead to stocks falling in 4th quarter and metals being a flight to quality buy.

We see the dollar topping at max.  10535 on cash and coming off strongly and that should allow gold to recover. We have weaker dollar cycles early in the week but then we have to see the reaction on Wednesday and at the moment it looks higher and any inflationary shocks and we could see the dollar spurt up as 106.00 is not out of the question.   . 
 
That along with the fact that GDX would look better with a new low to 2680-2700 has us wondering thinking a key low is at hand. 

Oil and Technology are the last bullish sectors left and oil is due to top by Friday and technology may make it through the end of the month but the rest of the stock market is lagging.

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-Barry 
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Metals Give a Buy Signal

Gold

METALS AND ENERGY UPDATES

Silver gave a buy signal this morning and the least bullish pattern would allow 2450 and then a pullback to 2250.  We do expect it to move to 2600 and higher and SLV will move with it.  We have a long-term cycle high into early November.  Platinum gave the earliest confirmation of a low and we like to trade PPLT, the ETF.   Gold is lagging and waiting on Dec. futures to take out 1943.  We suspect we will get a chance to buy GLD at 171 if we are patient.

We still like XLE and XOP and USO but we may have a few more days for crude to get to max. 7500 and pull those markets lower. They also have the more bullish potential for mid-September and probably early October when seasonal strength happens.

Also, keep an eye on Bitcoin and GBTC as it is oversold and will at least bounce into mid-September.

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When China Sneezes

When China Sneezes

Fitch put China on a warning to downgrade their debt and that is a huge warning to the world.  I remember when China had major problems in 1998 and it how it impacted the US stock market.  They are struggling with unpaid real estate loans, massive youth unemployment. They cut their rates in an attempt to stimulate their economy, but is it enough?  Some recent problems:

Country Garden just defaulted;

Zhongzhi Enterprise Group missed payments on high-yield investment products;

Recent bank loan data were terrible;

Industrial production 3.7% y-o-y (4.3% expected),

Retail sales 2.5% y-o-y (vs. 4.0%),

Fixed asset investment 3.4% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. 3.7%),

Property sales -8.5% y-o-y year-to-date (vs. -8.1%),

Unemployment 5.3% vs. 5.2% (not to mention that youth unemployment which just hit all time highs, will no longer be reported for obvious reasons).

The US markets are taking notice.  The failure  to rally on Tuesday was a yellow flag and of course when China sneezes, the whole world notices.

For the S & P: Key cash support overnight is at 4427 and 4411 and cash will need to get above 4477 to turn the corner.  We are very open to 4375-4385 before we get a reaction on cash.  With world crisis cycles next week, the 4311 and 4275 areas are not off the table for the August low before the market comes back in September.  As we have noted, we think that will be a 2nd wave bounce and not the new high we had hoped for in September.
Geocosmic and geopolitical cycles are a mess next week into the 28th and some larger crisis is out there, particularly with Jackson Hole, the BRICS meeting in South Africa, and the FOMC meeting all hitting.
Stay on top of our long-term forecasts for the fall and how to make money when you will have to short.  What do we do about the repeat of the 1987 crash cycle in October.
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The Last Bulls That Will Be Standing

THE LAST BULLS STANDING

The stock market is tiring and many indices have fallen in five waves suggesting that from a late August low,  a bounce in September may be the last bull bounce.  We have outlined many ugly background noises including China’s problems, higher interest rates that are not going to stop, geopolitical tensions and the end of the leftover free Covid money as people are spending and running up their credit cards.   The banking mess will not go away either despite Yellen’s continual Pollyanna-like statements.  By early October, you are going to have to make money with short stratetgies.

If there are last plays for longs, we are looking at late August pullback lows.  Energy seems the safest and best play and you can add or buy this Wednesday on pullbacks.  We like ETFs like USO and UGA for oil and gasoline as crude oil futures project 9150 into mid-August.   Metals will have a final fall into August 21st but then look positive into early November so GLD, SLV and GDX for miners will do well.   We also think Cryptos will come back into mid-September and later in the year.

There may be a few safe sectors to be long during September like XAR for Defense and Health Care is doing better than average so watch XLV.   The DOW has been holding up the best and the ETF for the DOW DIA will be a buy at the August low for a nice run in September.  Tech may come back also in September so we are always liking MGK for the Megacap techs.   If you look around, most other sectors are starting to fail.

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FIRST STOCK MARKET SWING LOW DUE TODAY, AUGUST 9TH

FIRST PART OF STOCK MARKET CORRECTION LOW DUE TODAY

The first part of the correction on the stock market is due to be over today.  NQ broke and projects 15061 on NQ futures.

Watching a minimum of 4455 on S & P cash and a max. of 4434 on cash and we might as be patient as today was a turning point and they are going for the lower numbers.

Buying the dip today is gambling for PPI and a 1 week rally and it is traders play for a bounce. Inevitably we are more caught up in wanting to buy the August 22nd low for the last move up.

Cycles look positive for an upward reaction on Thursday as there has been a series of better PPI numbers lately. Higher energy prices into the Sept. high will upset the numbers next month and the question is whether today’s strong rally in crude and energy stocks will be a reminder that the end of the lower PPI numbers is over.

 
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Troubling Geo-political Cycles this Fall.

FALL GEOPOLITICAL PREVIEW
Major climax cycles are set up around  BRICS Summit in South Africa on August 21-23.   Also into  August 23-28th there are several international and geo-political cycles peaking and not sure how they resolve. Tensions between leaders and government are also climaxing into August 26-27th.  Something major will happen then in the world.  Will the stock market care? We do have cycle lows due into that time window.  

Fall is usually not a great time for the stock market.  We looked at our geopolitical cycles and there are a number of things setting up.

1)    BRICS desire to destroy the dollar.
2)    The political and Presidential crises in America could hurt the perception of investing in the US.  We sense a late October peak here. We remember the Watergate scandal in 1973-4/
3)    Geopolitical tensions with China over Taiwan have an eerie 18.5-year cycle peaking into November.  
4)    Another eerie geopolitical cycle with North Korea nuclear muscle-flexing is also peaking into November.
5)    The reality of the FOMC  will continue to hit.

We have some thoughts on fall downward potential.  It is possible with the repeat of the Oct 1987 crash cycle into this October and November and it is connected to the 12 year cycle going into the third time around.

Gold cycles are very supportive for a strong rally in September and Bitcoin will probably benefit from this mess.  For now we are in the dog days of August wondering if 4650 on the S & P cash will hit before the craziness.  

 
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Smoke and Mirrors from the Employment Report

SMOKE AND MIRRORS IN THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT:

Stock indices went right up to the breakout point on Friday at 4560 on S & P futures  and had a weak close. We have had a bias that this market would break into Wednesday but we did find cycles that are negative for the dollar and better for gold and bonds into Wednesday but we think we are just getting retracements there.

We are wrong about crude as the move above 8300 opens the door for 84.85 or 86.65 before we get a max. break to 7500.  We still have weak cycles next week.

There was a lot of smoke and mirrors in the employment report if you look closely as zerohedge.com did:

Well, one look at this month’s adjustment and it’s literally a shocker: you will not hear anyone from the Biden admin or associated economist cheerleaders mention this, but the BLS reported that in July the number of full-time jobs plunged by 585,000 to 134.274 million, the biggest monthly drop since record Covid crash of 14.7 million jobs!

But if full-time jobs crashed how did the BLS get an increase of almost 300,000 employed workers? Simple: it was all in the surge of part-time workers. In July, the number of part-timers exploded by almost one million – 972K to be precise –  to 27.153 million.

Finally, going back to a quantitative read of the data, we look at the number of multiple jobholders – those workers who have to work more than one job at a time to make ends meet. In July, that number surged by 118K, and at 8.113 million was just shy of the pre-covid record hit in July 2019.

Putting it all together, if one believes the headlines, in July the US added 187K payrolls, and the number of employed workers rose by 268K. However, taking a closer look at the composition we find that in July, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 585K, offset by a 972K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 118K people who discovered last month that to keep up with the economic miracle that is Bidenomics, they need to work at least one more job.  (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-todays-disastrous-jobs-report-part-time-jobs-soar-1-million-full-timers-crash )

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CONFIRMED SELL SIGNALS IN MANY MARKETS–WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

CONFIRMED SELL SIGNALS IN MANY MARKETS
— WHERE ARE THEY GOING? 

Fitch downgraded US Treasury Bonds today and the markets were not happy.  NQ 100 futures issued a sell signal by taking out 15540.   August gold futures broke below 1940 and Sept. silver broke below 2410 to issue sell signals.  The cash dollar got above 102.60 to issue a stronger buy signal.  Crude oil had broken out earlier in the week hitting 8240 but is reversing and staring a correction.

These signals just happened within the last hour and for those of you looking for shorts, there is still time and room to make money. Most of these plays are traders plays for the short-term as we do not see a top in the stock market until September and the same is true for oil and gasoline.   Stay on top of new entries and projections with our Fortucast Timers. 

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Metals Toppy and Ready for a Correction

Gold

METALS COMPLEX TIMING AND READY FOR A CORRECTION

August gold issued a sell signal this morning as it came off on the ECB rate hike and comments and hit 1942. It may get to 1926 before having a minor bounce into August 1st but the trade tends to sell metals off into the end of the month which is Monday. Silver is also close to a breakdown signal at 2410 on Sept. futures . The ETFs are also in trouble as GDX and GLD came off sharply and also SLV. How far will they fall into the August low. When will they bottom? What kind of hope is there for the fall for a strong rally? We do see a financial crisis this fall and gold and silver will finally take off and continue into next year but for now they are ready to correct.

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-Barry

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July Astro-Finance–The Rockets may Pause

ASTRO-FINANCE FOR JULY 2023
By Barry Rosen
The US survived the debt ceiling crisis and kicked the can down the road past
the 2024 elections. What’s another 2 trillion dollars in debt? The military-industrial
complex is enjoying its spoils as Congress and President Biden pour money into
another opportunist war to protect democracy. But Zelansky just said there
would be no elections as long as there is war and he jailed a US journalist who
was critical of the war and is banning Russian books and the Russian Orthodox
Church. Sounds like a wonderful democracy. Not seeing a happy ending here
and we worry about the escalation with NATO and Europe determined to push
the world into war.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s chart continues to suffer from Rahu transiting over
his natal moon in the 6 th house at 7.56 Aries. While the mainstream media is
ignoring the Republican findings of political influence peddling and over 20 bank
shell bank accounts for Joe Biden’s relatives, one knows this scandal cannot go
on forever. Will it take until the next Lunar eclipse on Oct. 28 th at 12 Aries near
his natal moon to knock him out of the ring while the Sun transits his 12 th house in
the sign of debilitation? The media is even starting to turn on him as his party
sees the writing on the wall and Kamala Harris has the lowest popularity of a VP
in years. Her Moon is at 4 Aries and will also get hit by Rahu this fall and will
suffer from the eclipses. Her Mercury mahadasha (Adhana Vimshottari Dasha)
is connected to Rahu and Swati in the 5 th and she may well rise.
STOCK MARKET:
The pause in the stock market has been brief. It is close to a technical breakout
at publication and we still think it is vulnerable at least into July 9 th . We are not
expecting much of a pullback now. We have noted in previous issues that the
Jupiter/Uranus connection in late Aries will hold AI and tech up into early
September.
The Jupiter/Rahu conjunction continues to push the tech bubble and AI craze to
the moon. We do not see it ending until early September with Jupiter
approaching Uranus toward the end of Aries. The media is calling for a new bull
market but the 20% figure has always been rather arbitrary.
If the S & P cash takes out 4505 by July 3 rd , then pullbacks into July 9 th will be
minor and the trade may start pushing the stock market back up. Usually the
the Mars/Saturn opposition into the week of July 17 th is not helpful and
Mars/Saturn oppositions tend to create labor strikes and UPS is close to
announcing a strike at publication that would cripple the supply chain.

The stock market usually does not like the Mars/Saturn opposition which is
between Leo and Aquarius into July 20 th as Mercury goes retrograde into July
22 nd in Leo. Not sure if the market will be able to take off again until after the next
rate hike.
The next FOMC meeting is July 25-26 th and at the moment there is an 85%
chance of another rate hike coming and we wonder if that will put the breaks on
this recovery rally in progress at publication.
With Jupiter's proximity to Uranus peaking with the Jupiter station into Sept 4 th ,
there will be some kind of high on the year for stocks into that window. We are
starting to think that NQ 100 could get up to 16500-17000 with the AI craze and
pull Tesla up to 304. Doubt that Tesla will take out 230 now.
With Jupiter going retrograde from Sept. 3 rd into the end of the year, we will get
recessionary action happening. We do not expect the FOMC to ease rates until
next year. We have been looking for a difficult time for US stocks in
September/October/November. This is also coinciding with the 12-year cycle of
Jupiter in Aries when in Sept. 2011, stocks made a high and then fall into May of
2012.
The problem for the fall is Jupiter will be opposing the debilitated Sun and Mars
in Libra with Mercury in the fall of 2023 and that is similar to the oppositions we
had between the bearish signs of Aries and Libra, two air signs, which caused
more rapid stock market declines. In Oct. 1987, we had something very similar
and hence there is more crash energy in the fall of this year.
The context for a major financial crisis continues to be there this fall as the house
of cards of world debt, endless war expenditures are not going to come to a
pretty and neat end. Still, the powers that be manage to do what they can to stay
in power for the sake of the rest of us.
PLUTO RETURN FOR THE US :
This year has always looked better than 2024. We have been looking at the US
Pluto return into May/June 2024 for a while and it tends to cause big shifts in a
super-power. Rome and the United Kingdom were not the same after the Pluto
returns. Juliana Swanson did a long presentation in Dallas last week and she
noted that changes in all these superpowers occurred to waging expensive wars,
corruption, over-spending, and loss of moral and ethical standards. Any
surprises here? The April 8 th Solar Eclipse in 2024 makes X across the US and
is very powerful because it occurs during the day. It appears to be another huge
omen. (https://astralharmony.substack.com/)

The feeding of the military-industrial complex continues with billions of dollars as
money pours into Ukraine but their history of corruption has us wondering where
is all the money going. There are no victors in war and just too many victims.
Private figures suggest over 300,000 deaths on the Ukrainian side. Zelensky
wants the war to spill over into Europe and NATO is also a war-monger and we
think it has a good chance of happening into the summer of 2024 as no one
seems to want to talk peace. Where are diplomats when we need them?
I do know that there are powers of good trying to shift the energy of the world out
of war and power games and totalitarian control. Do your part by meditating and
contributing to the growth of world consciousness.

BANKING CRISIS:
At publication, banks are still drawing heavily on the FED’s emergency funding
window. On the horizon for a new crisis is the banking situation which we
warned is in trouble in July. The banks passed the stress test by the Federal
Reserve but the commercial real estate crisis is there to rear its ugly head in the
background and that may be a cause of a problem this fall.
We had mentioned that the banking crisis would not go away. We are at the
Jupiter/Rahu conjunction, which is a signature for bankruptcy, and it happens in
the True Node system on June 2nd, and a bit earlier in the Mean Node system.
GOLD
Gold has failed to launch and will more likely do so in the fall and winter with a
more extended financial crisis unless the banking crisis comes earlier.
Larger cycle highs for gold are due in Sept. as it is gold like the Sun in Leo and
Jupiter will be trining it and we have another cycle high in early November with
Venus trining Pluto into Nov. 6 th as I find Venus/Pluto aspects are often
connected to gold highs. Mars going into Leo at publication should help a bit but
we are concerned that if gold breaks 1890, it would fall to 1820 and seasonally
then the planets go through Cancer, 12 houses from Leo, gold is in trouble.
We have seen banks trash gold by selling futures for years and are not sure
they will stop and a break of 1890 on gold would lead to 1800. It is not out of the
question as the banks continue to manipulate. We do think gold will have its day
from the fall of 2023 into the spring of 2024.
We have a gold cycle higher into 2024 for now. Gold could accelerate in a crisis
to 2245 and then 2450 into the year 2024. Stay on top of our daily forecasts with
Fortucast.com newsletters.

CRYPTOS: Bitcoin finally gave a technical breakout a few weeks ago and
projects at least 35000 short-term and could get back to 54000. The fall
financial crisis will help. Jupiter is trining the natal Jupiter in the natal chart
(10/31/2008 11:10 am, Van Nuys, CA) at 22 Sagittarius) into Jupiter station in
early September at 21 degrees.
We think long timer they will be vulnerable still as the SEC tries to regulate
cryptos out of existence as indicated by the SEC filings against COIN and other
players. Still, Bitcoin is in a Jupiter/Rahu period from August 2023 into 2026
using the correct dasha of (Adhana Vimshottari Dasha) and it is likely to weather
the storm for a bit.
Remember to work with your broker. Trading and investing have to be done both
technically and astrology can help but should not be the only factor in making a
decision. You have to buy low and sell high.
As always, this is my snapshot thought for June 30, 2023. New information
comes in daily. If you are a trader or investor, consider my Fortucast newsletters
which are published daily at www.fortucast.com. A trial subscription is
97.00/month. If you want to learn financial astrology visit my website at
www.appliedvedicastrology.com and click on the Financial Astrology link.
ABOUT BARRY ROSEN: Barry Rosen has been teaching classes in Investment
Astrology since 1990 and began teaching the other aspects of Vedic astrology
specialized courses online in 2017, including Dashas, Transits, Personal
Finance, Health, Longevity, and Death, Nakshatras, The Spiritual Dimensions of
Vedic Astrology, Secrets of the Houses, Relationships and many more. In his
consultations, he focuses more on the emotional and mental patterns in the chart
and their impact on consciousness which can create waves of illusion blocking
you. A good consultation should help you witness the play of karma so that you
are not gripped by it; you can transcend it and realize your Divinity, becoming the
commander of the planets and not the victim. Barry Rosen also operates a blog
on Facebook under Barry Rosen and also Astro-Yoga and his professional
astrological website is www.appliedvedicastrology.com. He can be reached at
support@appliedvedicastrology.com.