FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Not sure if Yellen’s testimony will mean much with an expectation for a rate hike in December. Cycles are such that a surprise or Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar confirmed the 100.55 but extensions are possible.
Hogs are topping
FOR THURSDAY: (11/17) Usually we can count on grains going lower on Thursday but cycles are particularly volatile so we’ll leave the markets alone and count on pattern completions lower to exit the rest of hedges and to start thinking about buying March contracts. Cattle is getting ready for COF report. Hogs are topping and have to take profits on longs.
Dollar is close to being done at 100.55
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We have some very volatile and speculative cycles happening into Friday and it coincides with Janet Yellen’s testimony so whatever she says, the markets may overreact. Stocks are close to confirming the 5-wave pattern to 2220 and the dollar is close to being done at 100.55 but extensions are possible. Think it will be quiet on Wednesday before the Yellen tornado on Thursday.
Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows
FOR WEDNESDAY: (11/16) We warned you about short-covering starting and these transition periods are tricky. Patterns aren’t done but buying may start for those picking bottoms and happy with value. We still have a chance for new lows and pattern completions and can’t do much on Wednesday. Need to buy the new lows or secondary lows, which did not come in. Market looks higher Wednesday with some cycle work suggesting higher prices into Friday while the 29-day cycles suggest a peak Wednesday and a pullback into Friday. Hogs look higher a few days but cattle cycles are rather mixed but look tired and should come off a few days.
Congestion ahead for financial markets
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Lots of Fed Speak this week and then waiting for Janet to speak on Thursday is always a congestive delight. Market has a lot to digest after so much activity the last week and we probably should be patient with some markets.
Grain patterns might allow a mid-week bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (11/15) Continue to move stops down on corn spec and hedge positions. Patterns might allow a mid-week bounce and final lows by Friday/Monday, which is when seasonal lows come. Cycles for cattle and hogs are mixed this week but the 16-year cycle is hitting and last time it had the market lower.
Crazy speculative cycles this week
FOR MONDAY: (11/14) There’s a 16-year cycle peaking this week which we last saw around Y2K in Jan. 2000. It can be seen in large democratic or humanitarian societal movements which seek to alleviate social injustice. It’s manifesting now with the riots against Trump but there also riots in Europe. Yet, without a firm peaceful foundation aligned with higher principles, movements like this tend to backfire and become ineffective and dangerous. These cycles can be quite unconscious, eliciting violent, confusing, incoherent, and disintegrating shadow forces. Like Y2k when we were all convinced the world was going to end because of computer glitches and it turned into a subconscious hoax, it feels like everyone is spinning the Trump victory into the end of the world or the best thing since white break. We are somewhere in between. This week, speculative cycles are very crazy so if you thought last week was crazy, there’s more coming. We have to continue to play patterns and look for the completion of energy points. Thinking last week’s trend will continue into Wednesday or Thursday and then a shift will start by Friday.
Cycle lows due by first hour of trading
FOR MONDAY: (11/14) Cycle lows due by the first hour of trading and then we may get short-covering before the progress weekly report. Tuesday is unclear and we will continue to monitor patterns. Seasonal lows are due this week and buying usually happens before Thanksgiving. Continue reading
Bonds due for short-covering
FOR FRIDAY: (11/11) Happy Veteran’s Day! Only the bond market is affected but the Fed. Reserve is on holiday so everything is delayed clearing. We often see congestion setting in on Friday before a weekend break and profit-taking setting in. Bonds are due for short-covering and also crude could. Dollar and euro are quieter on Friday. Super Moon and the closest moon to the earth since 1948 may create more big surges come Monday. Still, the world and most of us are ready for a rest from a very long week. Honor our beloved military by donating to some of their favorite charities and hopefully Trump will fulfill his promises to them as they have been victimized by lack of care from Veteran’s hospitals.
Grains continue to disappoint
FOR THURSDAY: (11/10) We had suggested the need to sell rallies today/Thursday but we didn’t get anything after the USDA report and we had gotten stopped out of beans on the freaky rally on Tuesday. Will be harder to chase but usually you sell the Nov. USDA report and get out before Thanksgiving and there is still time left. Still disappointing how this market has its bizarre rhythms sometimes.