Author: admin

FOR THURSDAY: (9/22) By Thursday we have a number of forces that should finally create a strong harvest reversal. Continue to accumulate shorts. Cattle could hold up 1 more days but feeders are struggling and we won’t sell Dec. hogs without a price completion. Rain continues to hinder the Midwest corn and soybean harvests with severe storms in Iowa and eastern Nebraska today and rain lingering there through Friday. The seven-day and 6- to 10-day are wet for the Midwest with the 6- to 10-day also showing above-normal temperatures there.

Outside markets were a little supportive with equities and crude oil higher and the dollar lower. The Federal Reserve said a rate increase was likely by the end of the year. It said the U.S. economy and job market are doing well. Crude oil got a lift from a weekly government report showing a drop in U.S. supplies.  (For details and recommendations see our full timer.)

FOR WEDNESDAY: (9/21) Grains could hold up one more day and rarely fall strongly on Wednesday. By Thursday we have a number of forces that should finally create a strong harvest reversal. Continue to accumulate shorts. Cattle should hold up 1-2 more days but feeders are struggling and not selling Dec. hogs without a price completion.

FOR TUESDAY: (9/20) Storms over the weekend focused on the southern half of the growing region, while rains early in the week return to the upper Midwest before another front moves in from the west. Maps for the next seven days keep the eastern Corn Belt mostly dry. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday remain wet with a cooling trend in the west though the latest updates this morning are warmer for the period. Grain patterns to the upside would still look more complete if 342 on Dec. corn, 993 on Nov. beans at 416-8 on Dec. wheat came in. If you need to sell or hedge, we will hold out the next few days for those areas. Cattle should hold up a few more days and then congest into the COF report. Waiting for higher hog prices to be selling and that may take a few more days.

FOR MONDAY: (9/19) Corn and soybeans closed higher on Friday and wheat followed as a steady parade of rain showers in the Midwest raised concerns about harvest delays. The corn and soybeans still finished lower for the week as the market continues to price in the big crops that USDA had forecast on Monday. Short covering was likely in play ahead of the weekend and after the post-report losses. Rain moves across the Midwest the next few days. Both the seven-day outlook and the latest 6- to 10-day outlook favor rain for the Midwest, with the 6- to 10-day also showing above-normal temperatures. We expect short-covering to continue for a few more days and set up more sales and hedges. Cattle looks higher next week and hogs should be higher 1-2 more days and set up a sale.

FOR FRIDAY: (9/16) We did more cycle work and more likely to see grains lower on Friday and recovering Sunday/Monday and then generally lower much of next week. Given seasonals and harvest pressure, hard to see much of a rally coming the next few weeks. We would continue to favor shorts there. Rain moves across the Midwest this week with severe storms expected today in Nebraska. The seven-day outlook puts rain in the Midwest and the latest 6- to 10-day outlook favors hot weather there then and above-normal chances for rain.