Employment report a game-changer?
FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Was the employment report a game changer? Too early to tell. While some profit-taking will set in on Monday from overdone conditions, we may not know right away–and if no breakdowns/breakouts happen, we have to stay open for pattern completion on many of the markets rather than getting stuck with a key weekend cycle turn here. Still, a fear cycle tends to dominate next week and it may trigger exaggerated action. Deeper pattern completions to 1312 on gold, 1887 on silver and 129.60 on the pound and higher to 9757 on the dollar have us thinking that maybe S & P 2218 has a chance if we don’t get a big breakdown soon.
Grain cycles lower on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (8/8) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday but there was not enough definitive movement for us to feel totally safe. Cycles for grains point lower into Monday but not sure we will stick around much after the USDA weekly report. Cattle look like they need to retrace on Monday/Tuesday and hogs look higher.
Stocks likely to hold up on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Another employment report day. We have a bias for stocks holding up but any surprise news might change the verdict, as cycles look like they will weaken next week. Battling computer ALGOS is often tricky so we’ll have to go with pattern and looking closely at cycles into Sunday.
Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: (8/5) Weak closes on grains should set up new lows into Monday and willing to sell if we have a good risk/reward. Cattle are hooking lower and may be down into the middle of next week and hogs are too oversold to be chasing. We have to stay open to 323 on Dec. corn into Monday still but a buy should finally set up by then for the August rally–but it will be sickly.
Fortucast Financial Video Magazine
Fortucast Financial Video Magazine for the week of August 4th, 2016. Topping action for US stock market and more.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-8aCdFHbM1M
Employment report breaks excessive
FOR THURSDAY: (8/4) While we got into a number of positions on Wednesday, it was more for positioning for the bigger picture. Bounces are all bigger than we like and that leaves us vulnerable and having to position trade through chaos on Friday with big stops. We’re going to retreat as much as we can and see what develops. Trading the week of employment report is always a congestive mess but some of the breaks are more than they should be, like silver and crude, and suggests that something is wrong. Big energy point for everything still into Sunday night.
Positive cycles peak overnight for grains
FOR THURSDAY: (8/4) Positive cycles peak overnight for grains and meats but possible that grains could come back into the close. We continue to be open to one more push lower into Monday and we aren’t quite willing to top-pick for shorts until Thursday night or early Friday. Cattle had a nice run up on Wednesday and may come off a bit on Thursday and if so we’ll look to rebuy them.
Wednesday best day for stocks to fall
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/3) Best day for stocks to fall is Wednesday as they congest into employment numbers on Friday. Dollar may finally find support also. Crude still in trouble until Friday. If the S & P stays above 2133, it still may be a minor 4th wave matching the July 5-6 fall and be followed by a new high into Friday. By next week, stocks could unravel for 1-2 weeks.
Grains due for a countertrend bounce
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/3) Still like the long side of meats for Wednesday and also grains for a counter-trend bounce. Macro data is centered on US employment numbers on Friday. Soybeans closed lower for the second day on Tuesday as weather forecasts show mild conditions the next two weeks and USDA late on Monday said corn and soybeans continue to do well and are quickly maturing. Wheat markets were pressured by the lower soybeans and by news that Japan and South Korea have temporarily restricted imports of certain classes of U.S. wheat after a GMO discovery in a Washington state field. Crude oil cycles are lower into Friday with cycle lows projecting 35.00 max. Not a good thing. The dog days continue!