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FOR TUESDAY: (7/19) I suspect that markets are oversold enough that we’ll get a bounce if we can get in from lower levels at pattern completions. Corn, soybean and wheat closed higher on Monday as traders await the severity and duration of this week’s Midwest heat wave.

For the Midwest, forecasts put 100-degree highs from the Mississippi River and west and 90-plus east of there. The 6- to 10-day outlook (July 23-27) has above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and Plains then, plus dry conditions for the western Midwest. Reports from the field say Midwest corn made it through pollination in good shape and widespread weekend rain should help the crops make it through this week’s hot weather. Winter wheat moved higher with corn and soybeans despite harvesters reporting good yields as the winter wheat harvest moves into Nebraska and South Dakota. Protein content has slipped with readings of about 10% common versus the normal 12%.

FOR MONDAY: (7/18) Rains last week focused south of I-80. That’s expected to change into early next week, according to maps for the next seven days, as milder temperatures begin to give way to heat from the Southwest. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday show the warmer and drier pattern extending into the last week of the month, though the latest updates this morning dial back the extreme conditions some. Lately the more bearish forecasts tend to manifest over the weekend and cycles suggest as much going into Monday.

Still, we’re open one more recovery but at the moment we think the market will be lower the next few sessions. Gaps on Sunday night are very difficult to trade.

FOR FRIDAY: (7/15) We warned you how fickle these forecasts are how they can quickly turn. Soybeans made a sharp turn lower at midday and closed sharply lower as new forecasts apparently favor rain next week for the Midwest crop and indicated the heat wave then may not last long.

Previous hot, dry forecasts for the Midwest helped drive corn and soybeans higher this week with some help from Tuesday’s USDA report that increased exports for corn and soybeans and lowered Brazil’s corn crop.

FOR THURSDAY:  (7/14) Forecasts put 90 to 100 degree temperatures in key soybean areas next week, which could hurt crop development. Corn closed higher, although gains were pared late, on lingering support from Tuesday when USDA raised this year’s exports, partly because of an expected smaller crop in Brazil. Soft red winter wheat finished about 2 cents higher and hard red winter near unchanged. USDA confirmed on Tuesday there will be plenty of wheat in the world, with the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine all expected to harvest more.

Still, much of corn pollination should be done by the time the heat arrives but concerns still remain that a stretch of above-normal heat with dry conditions could still affect yields. Cycles aren’t giving us too many clues. We have had a bias toward a bearish reaction by Monday but those forecasts flip so easily it’s hard to gamble on unless you get in at good levels with big pockets.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/13) Not sure what we learned from the reaction to Tuesdays reports other than the funds will buy overbought conditions if they think there is any hint of prices going up. We’re open to higher prices into Friday and if the weather changes it looks like the market could dump early next week. If not, beans might get carried along  the path of least resistance.

Cattle are still a sale on bounces and hogs may need to be higher for 1-2 days. Soybeans were helped by new forecasts showing hot weather moving into the Midwest.

FOR TUESDAY: (7/12) The 6- to 10-day forecast (July 16-20) shows hot, but seasonal moisture for the Midwest. Soybeans last week rated 71% good/excellent. On Tuesday, the USDA releases the monthly WASDE report with the trade largely expecting an increase in 2016/2017 corn ending stocks.

Tuesday’s WASDE report is expected to raise 2016/2017 soybean ending stocks from June’s 260 million. While rain has slowed the winter wheat harvest, custom harvesters continue to report big yields. There has been some slippage in test weights because of the rain, they said. The harvest moves into Nebraska and South Dakota next week.

Excess rain has hurt the crop in France, Europe’s key producer. Harvest starts there this month, with forecasts showing more rain. Last week, the EU estimated the wheat harvest at 144.6 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 145.1 million.