Author: admin

FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/20) We warned you how these bullish forecasts can quickly change. The NWS’s latest weekly and 6- to 10-day (July 24-28) outlooks indicate this week’s hot weather of 90 and 100-degree highs will be brief, likely lasting through Friday, with next week’s highs expected in the 80s.

Also, rain last week and through the weekend put crops in good position to weather this week’s heat. Patterns suggest very oversold conditions for Dec wheat at 438 and Nov. beans at 1021 and Dec. corn to max. 342 so that some short-covering may develop and maybe the reality of the heat in Chicago will get those traders short-covering. Meats are moving toward congestion ahead of monthly reports.

FOR TUESDAY: (7/19) I suspect that markets are oversold enough that we’ll get a bounce if we can get in from lower levels at pattern completions. Corn, soybean and wheat closed higher on Monday as traders await the severity and duration of this week’s Midwest heat wave.

For the Midwest, forecasts put 100-degree highs from the Mississippi River and west and 90-plus east of there. The 6- to 10-day outlook (July 23-27) has above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and Plains then, plus dry conditions for the western Midwest. Reports from the field say Midwest corn made it through pollination in good shape and widespread weekend rain should help the crops make it through this week’s hot weather. Winter wheat moved higher with corn and soybeans despite harvesters reporting good yields as the winter wheat harvest moves into Nebraska and South Dakota. Protein content has slipped with readings of about 10% common versus the normal 12%.

FOR MONDAY: (7/18) Rains last week focused south of I-80. That’s expected to change into early next week, according to maps for the next seven days, as milder temperatures begin to give way to heat from the Southwest. Official 6- to 10 and 8- to 14-day forecasts out yesterday show the warmer and drier pattern extending into the last week of the month, though the latest updates this morning dial back the extreme conditions some. Lately the more bearish forecasts tend to manifest over the weekend and cycles suggest as much going into Monday.

Still, we’re open one more recovery but at the moment we think the market will be lower the next few sessions. Gaps on Sunday night are very difficult to trade.

FOR FRIDAY: (7/15) We warned you how fickle these forecasts are how they can quickly turn. Soybeans made a sharp turn lower at midday and closed sharply lower as new forecasts apparently favor rain next week for the Midwest crop and indicated the heat wave then may not last long.

Previous hot, dry forecasts for the Midwest helped drive corn and soybeans higher this week with some help from Tuesday’s USDA report that increased exports for corn and soybeans and lowered Brazil’s corn crop.

FOR THURSDAY:  (7/14) Forecasts put 90 to 100 degree temperatures in key soybean areas next week, which could hurt crop development. Corn closed higher, although gains were pared late, on lingering support from Tuesday when USDA raised this year’s exports, partly because of an expected smaller crop in Brazil. Soft red winter wheat finished about 2 cents higher and hard red winter near unchanged. USDA confirmed on Tuesday there will be plenty of wheat in the world, with the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine all expected to harvest more.

Still, much of corn pollination should be done by the time the heat arrives but concerns still remain that a stretch of above-normal heat with dry conditions could still affect yields. Cycles aren’t giving us too many clues. We have had a bias toward a bearish reaction by Monday but those forecasts flip so easily it’s hard to gamble on unless you get in at good levels with big pockets.