FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/25) Beans may explode on continued hopes for farm aid and we did have a cycle high due on Wednesday. We still would use the rally to hedge, as the crop is in good shape—especially corn. Hogs failed to recover despite a great Cold Storage report and broke technical support.Continue reading
Some wild cycles still present
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/25) Dog days of summer and some wild cycles are still present but we think stocks will hold up another day at least but it may get dicey going into next week’s FOMC meeting, and often stocks will sell off 35-50 points before the announcement. Not sure if the best day for that to happen but on the ropes.Continue reading
Stocks look higher for Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY (7/24) The trade couldn’t break stocks so they took them up for their typical Monday romp. Tuesday looks higher for stocks so we can’t stick around and we probably have to buy in the morning, and NQ is about to breakout. Chances are a rally on the dollar is a sale on Tuesday and a dip on gold is a buy. Crude is about to break and be lower into at least next Sunday/Monday.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/24) EOur shorts were in nice profits on Sunday night when 2792.50 hit and hopefully you took some off and heeded the yellow flags with pushes above 2806 intraday. Support overnight at 2808.50 and 2806.25 with new highs to 2824.50 and 2828.50 possible. Wednesday isn’t clear but given patterns and the breakout on NQ, we have to assume that the higher numbers are possible before end of the month profit-taking hits. Stocks failed to fall apart with weak cycles, and great GOOGLE earnings helped NQ, which never issued a solid sell signal. Market looks higher on Tuesday, and we’re going to have to scramble on shorts.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher Tuesday; volatile Wednesday; lower into Friday and into July 31.
Beans may continue to come off
FOR TUESDAY: (7/24) Crop conditions came in better than expected and beans may continue to come off as will corn. We had Tuesday lower and wonder if the trade will do their late July sell-off. We probably have to get something short if you are not in as we never go to 875 for beans. Wheat may get dragged lower.Continue reading
Reversals in metals, currencies may drag on
FOR MONDAY: (7/23) Funny reversals in metals and currencies may drag on until at least next Friday, with Tuesday being a pullback day to get in. Assuming that stocks are mostly lower into the end of the month with very few time windows to rally. Trade already looking ahead to the next FOMC meeting announcement on Aug. 1.Continue reading
Grains getting overbought
FOR MONDAY: (7/23) Grains are getting a bit overbought now after being up 5 days and cycles turn weaker into Tuesday, and weather isn’t really friendly but too much rain in some areas isn’t welcome. Cattle on Feed report was neutral but the market was a bit overbought. Open to buying cattle by Tuesday if it holds up well on Monday.Continue reading
Key numbers reached on many fronts
FOR FRIDAY: (7/20) Markets were a bit crazy today but key numbers were reached on many fronts and reversals happened. We’ve been in a time window for topping action for stocks and bottoming action for metals, and it look like it happened.Continue reading
Some key numbers hit for corn
FOR FRIDAY: (7/20) Some key numbers hit for corn but more room for upside for wheat and beans. Cattle on Feed report on Friday should lead to a pullback but reaction into Tuesday’s high looks friendly.Continue reading
Stock indices getting toppy
FOR THURSDAY: (7/19) Not sure we learned much on Wednesday and not seeing anything dire on the horizon for Friday, so the Powell breakouts for the dollar and stocks could continue without some shocking news. More likely to get reversal energy by Sunday. Vulnerable surprises are potential out there, with some cycles but probably less so for Friday.Continue reading
Hard to press longs after recent short-covering
FOR THURSDAY: (7/19) Cool and dry forecasts into the end of the month may continue to put a floor on this market. We almost never get rallies during this part of the 29/30-day forecast so it will be hard to press longs after short-covering the last few days. Thursdays tend to be lower in Chicago so we’ll give it a chance to pull back and not chase.Continue reading