FOR FRIDAY: (8/3) The 29-day cycle is usually weak for grains on Friday but without a deep break, we’ll be concerned about higher prices for Sunday/Monday. Wheat hasn’t finished upward patterns and corn hasn’t broken enough to discount 391.50. Sometimes the action is quiet before a weekend break. We may exit by the open of Sunday if the market can’t collapse on Friday.Continue reading
Continue to wait for pattern completion
FOR THURSDAY: (8/2) Not sure we missed much with FOMC. Statement was hawkish but markets weren’t too volatile and stayed within some key ranges we had seen earlier in the day. Some patterns weren’t completed to the downside, as was the case with gold and silver. Odd day. We’ll continue to wait for patterns to be completed.Continue reading
Doubt that corn will get to 391
FOR THURSDAY: (8/2) After the close, Trump gave a one-week extension to China on more tariffs and wondering if that will allow a bit of a relief rally for beans overnight. If we are to sell more beans overnight, we have to wait and see what develops. They just missed the major breakdown point of 897. Doubt that corn will get to 391 and wheat is its own weather market. Getting really tired of trade war news with China and its jerky connection to grains.Continue reading
One more new low on stocks
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/1) Another FOMC day. Our cycle works points to a negative reaction for stocks but always a gamble as there are often surprises. Gold and silver may make divergent lows and set up buys and T-notes look higher into Friday even if we get a spike low first. One more new low on stocks Wednesday, might set up a 3 wave bounce on Thursday from oversold conditions.Continue reading
Upper targets complete on grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (8/1) Cycles still point lower into the end of the week and upper targets are complete although corn would hit 391.50. We have three cycles that should turn this market weaker into the end of the week.Continue reading
Stocks should start short-covering
FOR TUESDAY: (7/31) Trade waiting on FOMC but should stocks should start short-covering here and sometimes you get 20-30 points on these short-covering moves. Still, buying is countertrend. Starting to work on set-ups for August but have to deal with first of the month craziness and knee-jerk reactions on Wednesday as well as profit-taking and positioning at the end July and first of August.Continue reading
Grain cycles still point lower
FOR TUESDAY: (7/31) Beans held Sunday highs all day but wheat and corn made new highs on the day. Nothing in the weekly crop report is bullish so it’s hard to imagine this market holding up anymore.Continue reading
Monday before FOMC often a cycle low for stocks
FOR MONDAY: (7/30) The Monday before FOMC is often a cycle low for stocks and then they short-cover to be flat or long into the announcement. While we expect a bearish reaction to FOMC on Wednesday, we’re not likely to be able to handle the huge bounces that often happen around FOMC and will have to stay short. We completed most of our Aug. and Sept. research and it is included below. Hard to see time and patterns that will allow a new high on the S & P until we get through Sept. seasonal lows.Continue reading
Lower cycles for most of next week
FOR MONDAY: (7/30) Our original work suggested a recovery on Sunday but if it happens, it would be a chance to sell, as cycles for most of next week seem lower and we’re probably at a point where selling pressure will increase unless there’s some wildly good news. Use any strength to take more protection. Wheat had issued a sell signal on Friday by printing 528 so it’s in trouble, and only corn is holding up decently.Continue reading
Grain cycles bearish for Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/27) Cycles are bearish for grains on Friday and we think the bears will win but if weather changes over the weekend, they may come back. You often have to be short beans and corn into the last week of July when they trash them so glad we have something on. Cattle look lower 1 more day but may recover early next week if the meltdown isn’t bad.Continue reading