FOR TUESDAY: (7/24) Crop conditions came in better than expected and beans may continue to come off as will corn. We had Tuesday lower and wonder if the trade will do their late July sell-off. We probably have to get something short if you are not in as we never go to 875 for beans. Wheat may get dragged lower.Continue reading
Reversals in metals, currencies may drag on
FOR MONDAY: (7/23) Funny reversals in metals and currencies may drag on until at least next Friday, with Tuesday being a pullback day to get in. Assuming that stocks are mostly lower into the end of the month with very few time windows to rally. Trade already looking ahead to the next FOMC meeting announcement on Aug. 1.Continue reading
Grains getting overbought
FOR MONDAY: (7/23) Grains are getting a bit overbought now after being up 5 days and cycles turn weaker into Tuesday, and weather isn’t really friendly but too much rain in some areas isn’t welcome. Cattle on Feed report was neutral but the market was a bit overbought. Open to buying cattle by Tuesday if it holds up well on Monday.Continue reading
Key numbers reached on many fronts
FOR FRIDAY: (7/20) Markets were a bit crazy today but key numbers were reached on many fronts and reversals happened. We’ve been in a time window for topping action for stocks and bottoming action for metals, and it look like it happened.Continue reading
Some key numbers hit for corn
FOR FRIDAY: (7/20) Some key numbers hit for corn but more room for upside for wheat and beans. Cattle on Feed report on Friday should lead to a pullback but reaction into Tuesday’s high looks friendly.Continue reading
Stock indices getting toppy
FOR THURSDAY: (7/19) Not sure we learned much on Wednesday and not seeing anything dire on the horizon for Friday, so the Powell breakouts for the dollar and stocks could continue without some shocking news. More likely to get reversal energy by Sunday. Vulnerable surprises are potential out there, with some cycles but probably less so for Friday.Continue reading
Hard to press longs after recent short-covering
FOR THURSDAY: (7/19) Cool and dry forecasts into the end of the month may continue to put a floor on this market. We almost never get rallies during this part of the 29/30-day forecast so it will be hard to press longs after short-covering the last few days. Thursdays tend to be lower in Chicago so we’ll give it a chance to pull back and not chase.Continue reading
Monday a transition day
FOR MONDAY: (7/16) Weekends have been treacherous around China announcements so we are more on the sidelines. By Tuesday, we have Powell testimony and think that we’ll get reversals on most markets until at least July 25 so metals should short-cover, dollars should be lower with crude higher and stocks lower. Monday is a transition day so we’ll be patient.Continue reading
Rains could slam grain prices
FOR MONDAY: (7/16) Only wheat held up on Friday, and beans and corn didn’t go high enough to let us in. Rains in the forecast suggest that these markets could be down hard so you may need to protect yourself early Sunday as 817-21 or 800 may quickly be in for Nov. beans and 340 for Dec. corn. Not sure what to do with erratic trading on meats and will leave them alone over the troubled weekend when China is like to suggest new retaliation measures.Continue reading
Powerful upside cycles ahead
FOR FRIDAY: (7/13) Retaliation from China over the weekend could keep the market on edge so the trade may be reluctant to push too much higher. We’ve had a lot of surprises by China announced over the weekend in past weekends. Cycles look positive in the morning but to be concerned about weekend profit-taking. In an ideal world, we would love for the S & P to reach up quickly to 2820. Trade waiting on Tuesday’s Powell testimony, and it appears it won’t go well, as many markets turn after it.Continue reading