Monday a transition day

FOR MONDAY: (7/16) Weekends have been treacherous around China announcements so we are more on the sidelines. By Tuesday, we have Powell testimony and think that we’ll get reversals on most markets until at least July 25 so metals should short-cover, dollars should be lower with crude higher and stocks lower. Monday is a transition day so we’ll be patient.Continue reading

Rains could slam grain prices

FOR MONDAY: (7/16) Only wheat held up on Friday, and beans and corn didn’t go high enough to let us in. Rains in the forecast suggest that these markets could be down hard so you may need to protect yourself early Sunday as 817-21 or 800 may quickly be in for Nov. beans and 340 for Dec. corn. Not sure what to do with erratic trading on meats and will leave them alone over the troubled weekend when China is like to suggest new retaliation measures.Continue reading

Powerful upside cycles ahead

FOR FRIDAY: (7/13) Retaliation from China over the weekend could keep the market on edge so the trade may be reluctant to push too much higher. We’ve had a lot of surprises by China announced over the weekend in past weekends. Cycles look positive in the morning but to be concerned about weekend profit-taking. In an ideal world, we would love for the S & P to reach up quickly to 2820. Trade waiting on Tuesday’s Powell testimony, and it appears it won’t go well, as many markets turn after it.Continue reading

Grains’ bounce healthy

FOR FRIDAY: (7/13) Grains’ bounce was healthy but not thinking that it will last very long and it should be easy to get pattern completions to 338 on Dec. corn and 817-20 on Nov. beans if we are patient. Use rallies to hedge.Continue reading

Reversal coming next week

FOR THURSDAY: (7/12) Watching overnight carefully but inclined to think that stocks will be higher and not done until 2820 comes on the S & P. Metals look lower for a few more days and oil should be done within a day. Reversal coming next week but not sure why.Continue reading

S & P could break 30 points

FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Stock traders are on steroids now so don’t be surprised if they just run things up for fun because there is no other game in town. Can’t ignore technical breakouts and the look of charts. S & P could break 30 points but if it comes from 2820, it won’t mean much. Summer fun is here!

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Hard to imagine the S & P running much through 2798-2800 quickly but if it does, then 2820 will come in more quickly than we’ve imagined. One pattern projects a 30-point correction before higher prices but it seems more likely to come on Wednesday. Cycles are still positive with the cycle inversion over the next few days pointing higher. We’ll assume positive movement until at least July 18. Watching 7597 on NQ futures as a potential July target.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Topping Tuesday then 30-point pullback; higher Thursday; generally higher into July 18.

Erratic grains difficult to play

FOR TUESDAY: (7/10) Grains are erratic and difficult to play for specs but if we get bounces, we have to hedge. Cattle should recover now also and hogs need another new low before it may be safe to buy.Continue reading

Cycles point lower for Sunday/Monday

FOR MONDAY: (7/9) Lately, we get Chinese surprises over the weekend and if retaliatory efforts are worse than expected, the market could tank sharply on Sunday. Cycles suggest as much for Sunday/Monday. We have a number of turns due over the weekend or at the latest into Tuesday/Wednesday for financials so will see what develops.Continue reading

Cycles suggest higher grain prices into Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (7/9) Lately, weekends have yielded more severe China saber-rattling so that is the problem but cycles suggest higher prices into Tuesday and we can buy pullbacks for a few days on grains for scalpers and bulls but would use rallies to hedge. Seasonally, if we get recoveries into the 2nd week of July, the trade often comes off.Continue reading