FOR TUESDAY: (7/31) Trade waiting on FOMC but should stocks should start short-covering here and sometimes you get 20-30 points on these short-covering moves. Still, buying is countertrend. Starting to work on set-ups for August but have to deal with first of the month craziness and knee-jerk reactions on Wednesday as well as profit-taking and positioning at the end July and first of August.Continue reading
Grain cycles still point lower
FOR TUESDAY: (7/31) Beans held Sunday highs all day but wheat and corn made new highs on the day. Nothing in the weekly crop report is bullish so it’s hard to imagine this market holding up anymore.Continue reading
Monday before FOMC often a cycle low for stocks
FOR MONDAY: (7/30) The Monday before FOMC is often a cycle low for stocks and then they short-cover to be flat or long into the announcement. While we expect a bearish reaction to FOMC on Wednesday, we’re not likely to be able to handle the huge bounces that often happen around FOMC and will have to stay short. We completed most of our Aug. and Sept. research and it is included below. Hard to see time and patterns that will allow a new high on the S & P until we get through Sept. seasonal lows.Continue reading
Lower cycles for most of next week
FOR MONDAY: (7/30) Our original work suggested a recovery on Sunday but if it happens, it would be a chance to sell, as cycles for most of next week seem lower and we’re probably at a point where selling pressure will increase unless there’s some wildly good news. Use any strength to take more protection. Wheat had issued a sell signal on Friday by printing 528 so it’s in trouble, and only corn is holding up decently.Continue reading
Grain cycles bearish for Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/27) Cycles are bearish for grains on Friday and we think the bears will win but if weather changes over the weekend, they may come back. You often have to be short beans and corn into the last week of July when they trash them so glad we have something on. Cattle look lower 1 more day but may recover early next week if the meltdown isn’t bad.Continue reading
GDP a big deal on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (7/27) GDP is a big deal on Friday, as some estimates are for 5.2% based on recent stats. Will the market think overheating or get exciting? This market is on steroids so we have to be cautious.Continue reading
Have to get short stocks on recovery highs
FOR THURSDAY: (7/26) The EU caved to Trump’s demands and produced another leg up. Now we have ECB and GDP, and the market is often vulnerable a week before FOMC so hard to press longs. Facebook is tanking after hours, pulling NQ sharply lower, and it will spill into the broader market so a top may be in. Have to get short on recovery highs for stocks.Continue reading
Friday should be a climax and reversal
FOR THURSDAY: (7/26) $12 Billion in new farm aid to combat tariffs helped markets on Wednesday, and they’re higher overnight. Usually grains are lower on Thursday but we do have two opposing cycles into Friday. If the market holds up an extra day, Friday should be a climax and reversal. Cycles and patterns seem close but could overshoot on fund zeal but 384 on Dec. corn should be the max. fantasy and 907 on Nov. beans. Wheat is in a whole different world.Continue reading
Beans may explode
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/25) Beans may explode on continued hopes for farm aid and we did have a cycle high due on Wednesday. We still would use the rally to hedge, as the crop is in good shape—especially corn. Hogs failed to recover despite a great Cold Storage report and broke technical support.Continue reading
Some wild cycles still present
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/25) Dog days of summer and some wild cycles are still present but we think stocks will hold up another day at least but it may get dicey going into next week’s FOMC meeting, and often stocks will sell off 35-50 points before the announcement. Not sure if the best day for that to happen but on the ropes.Continue reading