FOR FRIDAY: (7/6) Very difficult day to trade. Cycles look positive for stocks but will the trade fade any news? We continue to go with price and pattern and we’re more inclined to expect a downside resolution for stocks into the weekend. Market is currently bid on hopes for some China resolution–and if it comes, then the market may gallop and leave the bears in the dust.Continue reading
Likely cycle highs into July 10
FOR FRIDAY: (7/6) We have had a bias in cycles toward cycle highs into July 10 but the days after July 4th are always precarious, and cycles are particularly volatile. Weather forecast are warmer and drier but there appears to be enough soil moisture for a few week to prevent major damage. The verdict will still be out on beans with later pollination. With no overnight action to go on we won’t have a clear reaction for over a ½ hour. Given everything, we slight new lows in grains should be bought for buy the fact reaction to China and weather and cycles into Tuesday. Meat grinder action will have us waiting for confirmations and the dust to settle.Continue reading
S&P above 2720 isn’t great for the bears
FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) We have pre-holiday trading in thin conditions and while we understand patterns and cycles, it usually isn’t worth trading choppy action before the Friday employment report. Leave it alone and enjoy the holiday break. We can often get a lot of fake-out moves in these conditions and they seem exaggerated so we have to wait for volume to return. Continue reading
Have to get some Dec. corn hedges on
FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) Grains are doing a dead-cat bounce on Monday night on minor adjustments in crop conditions. The slam dunk on Monday caught us by surprise, as we hadn’t expected such a huge downward movement. We had cancelled long wheat and exited long corn from the Sunday night session market on Monday but failed to hedge. Lack of a perceived weather threat to U.S. crops along with generally bearish data on acreage and grain inventories last week gave traders little incentive to stick their necks out with new long positions headed in to the July 4th holiday. Have to get some Dec. corn hedges on, as we could quickly be at 340.Continue reading
Huge range possible on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We’re dealing with first-of-the-month fund buying but also have to deal with thin holiday conditions all week, although Europe and Asia won’t be as thin. The week of employment report can have a huge range on Monday and then be followed by congestion, and it usually makes for quicker and shorter trades. Given the holidays, we may be trading very thinly unless there is something very clear.Continue reading
Use rallies to hedge Dec. corn
FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We hate trading around July 4th. Usually you have to sell and hedge corn if it makes highs around there. Beans are too far from pollination. Crop has gotten enough rain that a week of heat shouldn’t be a deal killer, and there appears to be enough rain in the forecast. We would use rallies to hedge Dec. corn and be done by July 9 at the latest. Verdict is out on beans and we have to wait for better prices.Continue reading
Expecting position squaring on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Lots of reports and month-end position squaring onFriday. Many of the trends we have had in place look like they will continue into Tuesday of next week before the official July 4th holiday. In reality, many people will take all of next week off and many will disappear already on Friday. Stocks could be wild on Friday but not sure who wants to go home with anything.Continue reading
Mixed grain cycles ahead
FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into Sunday/Monday, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday. Minor cycles are weak but the larger cycles are supportive and may allow a recovery if we get any movement lower on bearish numbers. Usually hard to survive the meat grinder here. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas. Hogs and Pigs report was bearish but maybe only one-limit down move and it then will bounce next week.Continue reading
Stock market may do another sucker punch
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day in that the market ended lower but had a wild early morning spike that took out our protective stops. We at least expect new lows overnight but the market may do another sucker punch if the trade decides to head for the exits early.Continue reading
Favoring long grains into July 10
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into July 10, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday and won’t position ourselves. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas.Continue reading