FOR TUESDAY: (7/3) Grains are doing a dead-cat bounce on Monday night on minor adjustments in crop conditions. The slam dunk on Monday caught us by surprise, as we hadn’t expected such a huge downward movement. We had cancelled long wheat and exited long corn from the Sunday night session market on Monday but failed to hedge. Lack of a perceived weather threat to U.S. crops along with generally bearish data on acreage and grain inventories last week gave traders little incentive to stick their necks out with new long positions headed in to the July 4th holiday. Have to get some Dec. corn hedges on, as we could quickly be at 340.Continue reading
Huge range possible on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We’re dealing with first-of-the-month fund buying but also have to deal with thin holiday conditions all week, although Europe and Asia won’t be as thin. The week of employment report can have a huge range on Monday and then be followed by congestion, and it usually makes for quicker and shorter trades. Given the holidays, we may be trading very thinly unless there is something very clear.Continue reading
Use rallies to hedge Dec. corn
FOR MONDAY: (7/2) We hate trading around July 4th. Usually you have to sell and hedge corn if it makes highs around there. Beans are too far from pollination. Crop has gotten enough rain that a week of heat shouldn’t be a deal killer, and there appears to be enough rain in the forecast. We would use rallies to hedge Dec. corn and be done by July 9 at the latest. Verdict is out on beans and we have to wait for better prices.Continue reading
Expecting position squaring on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Lots of reports and month-end position squaring onFriday. Many of the trends we have had in place look like they will continue into Tuesday of next week before the official July 4th holiday. In reality, many people will take all of next week off and many will disappear already on Friday. Stocks could be wild on Friday but not sure who wants to go home with anything.Continue reading
Mixed grain cycles ahead
FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into Sunday/Monday, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday. Minor cycles are weak but the larger cycles are supportive and may allow a recovery if we get any movement lower on bearish numbers. Usually hard to survive the meat grinder here. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas. Hogs and Pigs report was bearish but maybe only one-limit down move and it then will bounce next week.Continue reading
Stock market may do another sucker punch
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day in that the market ended lower but had a wild early morning spike that took out our protective stops. We at least expect new lows overnight but the market may do another sucker punch if the trade decides to head for the exits early.Continue reading
Favoring long grains into July 10
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into July 10, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday and won’t position ourselves. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas.Continue reading
Open to a break in stocks on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) We’re concerned that the markets will turn into a ghost town the week of July 2-6 with the 4th falling on a Wednesday. May seem a lot like the week of Christmas with everyone traveling. That often leaves us with congestive patterns and no clues. Still enough volume for a few days but could thin into Friday. We’re open to a break in stocks on Wednesday but then wonder if we will get short-covering for a while and that seems to be the case.Continue reading
Nothing bullish in the forecasts
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) Nothing bullish in the forecasts. We think grains will short-cover before the USDA but will be hard to hold anything into the weekend. We have a bias for higher prices next week but the seasonal odds are usually against us. Cattle continues to look weak but as pre-holiday conditions thin, anything can happen.Continue reading
Should still be able to safely sell stocks on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (6/25) Cycle lows for stocks dominate into at least Wednesday, and end-of- the-month unraveling may not help into the end of the week if anyone is left before a 1-week 4th of July holiday. We should still be able to safely sell stocks on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the verdict is out on gold, the dollar and oil, as Monday’s action wasn’t definitive.Continue reading