FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Lots of reports and month-end position squaring onFriday. Many of the trends we have had in place look like they will continue into Tuesday of next week before the official July 4th holiday. In reality, many people will take all of next week off and many will disappear already on Friday. Stocks could be wild on Friday but not sure who wants to go home with anything.Continue reading
Mixed grain cycles ahead
FOR FRIDAY: (6/29) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into Sunday/Monday, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday. Minor cycles are weak but the larger cycles are supportive and may allow a recovery if we get any movement lower on bearish numbers. Usually hard to survive the meat grinder here. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas. Hogs and Pigs report was bearish but maybe only one-limit down move and it then will bounce next week.Continue reading
Stock market may do another sucker punch
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Frustrating day in that the market ended lower but had a wild early morning spike that took out our protective stops. We at least expect new lows overnight but the market may do another sucker punch if the trade decides to head for the exits early.Continue reading
Favoring long grains into July 10
FOR THURSDAY: (6/28) Trade gearing up to a long holiday week and Friday’s USDA report. While we favor longs into July 10, we could get lots of craziness first on Friday and Monday and won’t position ourselves. So far, it’s a great crop except for too much rain in some areas.Continue reading
Open to a break in stocks on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) We’re concerned that the markets will turn into a ghost town the week of July 2-6 with the 4th falling on a Wednesday. May seem a lot like the week of Christmas with everyone traveling. That often leaves us with congestive patterns and no clues. Still enough volume for a few days but could thin into Friday. We’re open to a break in stocks on Wednesday but then wonder if we will get short-covering for a while and that seems to be the case.Continue reading
Nothing bullish in the forecasts
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/27) Nothing bullish in the forecasts. We think grains will short-cover before the USDA but will be hard to hold anything into the weekend. We have a bias for higher prices next week but the seasonal odds are usually against us. Cattle continues to look weak but as pre-holiday conditions thin, anything can happen.Continue reading
Should still be able to safely sell stocks on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (6/25) Cycle lows for stocks dominate into at least Wednesday, and end-of- the-month unraveling may not help into the end of the week if anyone is left before a 1-week 4th of July holiday. We should still be able to safely sell stocks on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the verdict is out on gold, the dollar and oil, as Monday’s action wasn’t definitive.Continue reading
Not seeing a huge downside potential for corn
FOR TUESDAY: (6/26) Grains look lower 1 more day followed by short covering into Friday. New research on cattle suggests lower into Wednesday if not into early next week. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower into Sunday
FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Trade is processing the aftermath of Friday’s OPEC meeting so may have wild action on Sunday. Stocks getting more serious about shorts and metals running out of time for new lows by Sunday night or early Monday. Dollar looks lower into Sunday.Continue reading
Grains look lower Monday/Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Some hope for grain bulls if we get hotter temperatures in July and weird weather patterns. Markets are so beat up they really have to factor in pollination so the path of least resistance is up. Market looks lower Monday/Tuesday but the should come to life. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could even be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading