FOR TUESDAY: (6/26) Grains look lower 1 more day followed by short covering into Friday. New research on cattle suggests lower into Wednesday if not into early next week. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower into Sunday
FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Trade is processing the aftermath of Friday’s OPEC meeting so may have wild action on Sunday. Stocks getting more serious about shorts and metals running out of time for new lows by Sunday night or early Monday. Dollar looks lower into Sunday.Continue reading
Grains look lower Monday/Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (6/25) Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Some hope for grain bulls if we get hotter temperatures in July and weird weather patterns. Markets are so beat up they really have to factor in pollination so the path of least resistance is up. Market looks lower Monday/Tuesday but the should come to life. Grains do look higher the first week of July overall so the worst may be over if the market can do secondary lows this week and offer a light hedge buy in case of pollination. Cattle on Feed was neutral to bearish and now the market could even be lower into Wednesday. Hogs are oversold and may have a chance to rally with a 5-wave pattern just about complete.Continue reading
Metals running out of time for new lows
FOR FRIDAY: (6/22) Trade waiting on Friday OPEC meeting but it bleeds into Saturday so may have wild action on Sunday. Stocks getting more serious about shorts and metals running out of time for new lows by Sunday night or early Monday. Dollar looks lower into Sunday.Continue reading
Corn most likely to bounce
FOR FRIDAY: (6/22) Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Wet weather is starting to reduce yields. Getting closer to Cattle on Feed for Friday, and that can get dicey. We hope we get enough downward momentum to make money on our shorts.Continue reading
Gold, silver look lower on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/21) Trade waiting on Friday OPEC meeting, and new highs on NQ cash mean that they will buy Amazon when everything else is starting to be in trouble. We’ll wait for the morning but the rule is not to sell after a sucker punch and new highs in a market, and NQ may bring SP up eventually. Gold and silver look lower on Thursday.Continue reading
29-day grains cycle weak on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (6/21) Thursdays are often lower for grains and the 29-day cycle is weak. There should be a day-trade sale in the morning, and it could turn into a secondary low into Monday. Corn is the most vulnerable to the upside because of pollination, and that is starting to issue a buy signal. Getting closer to Cattle on Feed for Friday, and that can get dicey. We hope we get enough downward momentum to make money on our shorts.Continue reading
Favoring lower stocks prices into Monday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) We have the sense of the other shoe dropping and concerns about wild things happening and find it hard to put on positions overnight now. Will see what develops in the morning and take more stances here. Tuesday was a bit of a surprise day and still shaking off the dust.Continue reading
Chart action suggests start of a climax for grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) Chart action suggests the start of a climax, as fundamental value was hit and exceeded. Some key numbers were hit and big bounces off the lows happened. Grains look higher on Wednesday but secondary lows are likely into Monday and then short-covering before USDA stocks report next week.Continue reading
Stocks should be lower all week
FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) Dollar starting to look lower into Sunday with 1-day to rally this week on Wednesday. Stocks should be lower all week. Oil still has a few days before we can sell again. There’s a volatile cycle on Tuesday/Wednesday so watch for whippy action.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) We suggested first exits on shorts at 2761 and the market hit 2761.25 so using our 5-minute rule on close numbers, we’re assuming that you went to the market and got some positions off. Not happy with the rebound to 2780 but we had noted that upper channel resistance was at 2784.50, and that’s probably the next overnight sell area. Market may hold up the first few hours of trading and then sell-off so we’ll be patient about new sales. Key support is at 2740 and once that comes out the trade will jump on shorts and more massive erosion will surface.
It’s hard to project where a first early summer fall will go to but the 2590 region is calling out for a number of reasons, and a key Andrew’s line is there as well as a retest of the May 3 low. For now, we’re focusing on cycle lows into June 25 and will evaluate cycles more closely for the summer soon. Seasonally, we’ve seen falls into early July be scooped up for secondary highs.
We’re seeing volatile political and war-like cycles this summer but how much they will impact the US and whether the market will care remains to be seen.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering Tuesday; generally lower into Friday; lower into June 25.