FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) We have the sense of the other shoe dropping and concerns about wild things happening and find it hard to put on positions overnight now. Will see what develops in the morning and take more stances here. Tuesday was a bit of a surprise day and still shaking off the dust.Continue reading
Chart action suggests start of a climax for grains
FOR WEDNESDAY: (6/20) Chart action suggests the start of a climax, as fundamental value was hit and exceeded. Some key numbers were hit and big bounces off the lows happened. Grains look higher on Wednesday but secondary lows are likely into Monday and then short-covering before USDA stocks report next week.Continue reading
Stocks should be lower all week
FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) Dollar starting to look lower into Sunday with 1-day to rally this week on Wednesday. Stocks should be lower all week. Oil still has a few days before we can sell again. There’s a volatile cycle on Tuesday/Wednesday so watch for whippy action.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) We suggested first exits on shorts at 2761 and the market hit 2761.25 so using our 5-minute rule on close numbers, we’re assuming that you went to the market and got some positions off. Not happy with the rebound to 2780 but we had noted that upper channel resistance was at 2784.50, and that’s probably the next overnight sell area. Market may hold up the first few hours of trading and then sell-off so we’ll be patient about new sales. Key support is at 2740 and once that comes out the trade will jump on shorts and more massive erosion will surface.
It’s hard to project where a first early summer fall will go to but the 2590 region is calling out for a number of reasons, and a key Andrew’s line is there as well as a retest of the May 3 low. For now, we’re focusing on cycle lows into June 25 and will evaluate cycles more closely for the summer soon. Seasonally, we’ve seen falls into early July be scooped up for secondary highs.
We’re seeing volatile political and war-like cycles this summer but how much they will impact the US and whether the market will care remains to be seen.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering Tuesday; generally lower into Friday; lower into June 25.
Grain cycles suggest a bounce for a few days
FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) There’s slight improvement in the U.S. corn crop. As of Sunday, the USDA National Ag Statistics Service says the crop is 78 percent good to excellent. That’s a percentage point better than a week ago. The condition of the soybean crop is down a percentage point from last week at 73 percent good to excellent. Ninety-five percent of U.S. winter wheat is headed; 27 percent is harvested. Winter wheat is 39 percent good to excellent, while the SPRING wheat crop is 78 good to excellent.
JULY CORN
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (6/19) Corn closed under the key 360 area and it will be difficult to close above it now even if we get a 2-day bounce. Will the trade buy the fact of an improved crop? Cycles suggest a bounce here for a few days before a move to 349.75 and 343. A 3-wave bounce now projects 368. Not trusting this market but the worst may be over for a few days. If you’re still bearish, need to sell bounces to 368- 372. We will keep some corn hedges. A pollination scare is going to be needed to save this market but eventually this should be a wet year and the crop should be fine. We’re going to switch to Dec. corn soon and it’s 21.5 over so start watching it.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Retracing higher Tuesday/Wednesday; lower Thursday; mixed Friday; lower into June 25.
Crude not done until 6087
FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Stocks cycles look lower next week; gold looks like it could have a 2-3-day bounce from lower levels and the dollar and euro need to retrace those huge moves from Thursday for a few days. Crude not done until 6087 but short-covering likely to start soon before contract expiration.Continue reading
Grains oversold, due for a 2-3-day bounce
FOR MONDAY: (6/18) Will Chicago traders trade the experience of 90’s over the weekend or look ahead to a break in the weather mid-week? Markets are oversold and due for a 2-3-day bounce but then looks lower into June 25. Hogs may retrace a day but look higher much of next week, as does cattle.Continue reading
New highs on NQ suggest no deeper break
FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) We didn’t get dramatic reversals like we had expected except for the dollar and the euro, and new highs on NQ don’t bode well for this market. If China tariffs aren’t as bad as expected, the market could celebrate and do what it does best and buy Netflix and Amazon.Continue reading
Corn close to 360 key support
FOR FRIDAY: (6/15) If you wait long enough, your numbers will come, and we all got faked out by Tuesday’s report action that triggered buy signals and then they flushed everyone down the drain. Absurd target from earlier in the week came on beans at 923 and corn is close to 360 key support and secondary low.Continue reading
Cycles turn more volatile Thursday afternoon
FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) Cycles turn more volatile on Thursday afternoon and thinking a cycle low into Monday for stocks. ECB craziness is often worse than FOMC craziness so we’re a bit gun shy and have to focus on key patterns and numbers and cycles. We have gold lower for a few days, which means that the euro may come off.Continue reading
Beans in a death spiral
FOR THURSDAY: (6/14) We have looked for a recovery into Monday but it may be in 3 waves. Not sure stocks numbers are good enough to negate excellent corn but oversold conditions will allow a bounce. Wheat retraced much more than makes us happy and beans are in a death spiral but closer to extended target of 923.Continue reading