FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) Dollar starting to look lower into Sunday with 1-day to rally this week on Wednesday. Stocks should be lower all week. Oil still has a few days before we can sell again. There’s a volatile cycle on Tuesday/Wednesday so watch for whippy action.
SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (6/19) We suggested first exits on shorts at 2761 and the market hit 2761.25 so using our 5-minute rule on close numbers, we’re assuming that you went to the market and got some positions off. Not happy with the rebound to 2780 but we had noted that upper channel resistance was at 2784.50, and that’s probably the next overnight sell area. Market may hold up the first few hours of trading and then sell-off so we’ll be patient about new sales. Key support is at 2740 and once that comes out the trade will jump on shorts and more massive erosion will surface.
It’s hard to project where a first early summer fall will go to but the 2590 region is calling out for a number of reasons, and a key Andrew’s line is there as well as a retest of the May 3 low. For now, we’re focusing on cycle lows into June 25 and will evaluate cycles more closely for the summer soon. Seasonally, we’ve seen falls into early July be scooped up for secondary highs.
We’re seeing volatile political and war-like cycles this summer but how much they will impact the US and whether the market will care remains to be seen.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering Tuesday; generally lower into Friday; lower into June 25.
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