FOR MONDAY: (6/4) Cooler weather the next few days may dampen drought fears even if temperatures are scheduled to go up later. Still, traders go with what they tangibly feel so the market should keep eroding but reach a climax low in the next few days for grains.Continue reading
Dollar looks lower into Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/1) Trade waiting on employment report. Stocks look friendly into at least June 7; the dollar looks lower into Friday and gold higher and crude higher for Friday. T-notes look lower into next week. Always surprises with these reports so it’s always difficult to get too exposed before a report. We’re starting to see lower dollars all of next week and that will keep us out of shorting gold too early. One has to wonder if stocks can come back given background noise.Continue reading
Grain cycles look higher on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (6/1) Grain cycles look higher on Friday with lower action into Tuesday of next week. Downward patterns didn’t complete and we’ll hold shorts a few more days. Going to leave markets alone before the next wild weather report emerges – or not. First of the month fund buying should kick in and lift cattle for a few days but too hard to play after we got beat up on Thursday.Continue reading
Stocks look higher into at least June 7
FOR THURSDAY: (5/31) Trade waiting on employment report. Stocks look higher into at least June 7; the dollar looks lower into Friday and gold higher and crude higher. T-notes look lower into next week. Always surprises with these reports so it’s always difficult to get too exposed before a report.Continue reading
Grains still look lower on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (5/31) Grains still look lower on Thursday with short-covering possible o Friday. We still have to do research on next week but the market looks like it could have a sharp rebound if new weather comes into play so stay on guard.Continue reading
FOR THURSDAY: (5/24) The trade is leaving for the holidays and we rarely do well holiday trading or post-holiday trading. Usually the day after a holiday is filled with head fakes and double head fakes, and the wise trader waits for the noise to settle down to play. Moreover, we’re moving into the end of the month next week. We are lightening up on trading and with our travel schedule, we will have few reports until Tuesday but will cover key news events if we see something you should be aware.Continue reading
Cattle looking up into COF
FOR THURSDAY: (5/24 no change) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play. We see any rallies on Monday night followed by massive selling when the trade comes back from the holidays. Between the China ping-pong trade match and weather markets, we just have to be as flat as possible.Continue reading
Bias toward stock market pullback into Friday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) Have to be concerned about thinning conditions as traders head toward the exits ahead of Memorial Day. We have a bias for a stock market pullback into Friday, and Tuesday’s failure supports it. Wednesday is still a transition day. We hate pre-holiday trading and have to hold back and then wait for huge release on Tuesday when everyone comes back.Continue reading
Bias toward lower grains into Thursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play.Continue reading
Stocks cycles positive
FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Still should be an active day before it thins out before the holidays. Cycles are positive and we see a good chance for stocks to spurt. Willing to buy pullbacks on gold and silver for countertrend plays, and we like crude into Thursday if we can get a pullback.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Market was strongly higher and had nowhere to go. At worst, probably a pullback to 2723.50 but still could see 2765.50 this week. Will look for a buy in the morning. What is promising is the fact that our fears for a retest of 2700 or lower to 2694 never manifested last Friday during the weakest day of the run. If the market can’t decisively take out 2641-2 Tuesday, the hopes for 2765-74 may be delayed or they just may drag out into early June as the trade gets ready for Memorial Day.
OVERALL: We’re not expecting any major fallout and a new high to 2779 or more is possible into June if the market behaves. Lately, seasonal trends have extended later in June rather than May, and often this occurs after the 2nd week of June.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher Tuesday; topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.