FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/23) We’re concerned about thinning holiday conditions already in the cattle markets, and it’s always difficult to take a grain position out over a long holiday weekend. We have a bias toward lower grains into Thursday with Friday maybe being position squaring. Cattle are already looking ahead toward the COF report on Friday. It looks like cattle could be up into the report and be lower after Memorial Day. Grains may also be up on Friday and have some follow-through into Monday night but it’s always the hardest day to play.Continue reading
Stocks cycles positive
FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Still should be an active day before it thins out before the holidays. Cycles are positive and we see a good chance for stocks to spurt. Willing to buy pullbacks on gold and silver for countertrend plays, and we like crude into Thursday if we can get a pullback.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Market was strongly higher and had nowhere to go. At worst, probably a pullback to 2723.50 but still could see 2765.50 this week. Will look for a buy in the morning. What is promising is the fact that our fears for a retest of 2700 or lower to 2694 never manifested last Friday during the weakest day of the run. If the market can’t decisively take out 2641-2 Tuesday, the hopes for 2765-74 may be delayed or they just may drag out into early June as the trade gets ready for Memorial Day.
OVERALL: We’re not expecting any major fallout and a new high to 2779 or more is possible into June if the market behaves. Lately, seasonal trends have extended later in June rather than May, and often this occurs after the 2nd week of June.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher Tuesday; topping Wednesday; lower into Friday.
Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (5/22) Despite the strong Sunday rallies, the smart trade knew to sell. Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday. Crop plantings were better than expected and not likely to provide much relief. The issue may be how much more corn get in Michigan and Wisconsin.Continue reading
Gold, silver look higher next week
FOR MONDAY: (5/21) We’re moving into a pre-holiday week and the trade may be going home after Wednesday. Monday morning looks lower for stocks so we’re open to a pullback but it may end up being a buy into Tuesday. Gold and silver look higher much of next week as does crude, and the dollar should pullback next week.Continue reading
Beans seem safest to sell
FOR MONDAY: (5/21) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday and probably Wednesday, and they may not have far to go after strong rallies. Beans seem safest to sell but corn failed to issue a buy signal. Can wheat carry the rest of the complex higher or will the forecasts change over the weekend and overbought conditions lead to a pullback? Not going to sell wheat but can get away with beans shorts. Meats look higher this week, but Monday can be volatile, and it’s always hard to buy this early-week dips.Continue reading
Crude fundamentals, trend remain strong
FOR FRIDAY: (5/18) Traders aren’t taking too much home for the weekend lately so end-of- the-week position squaring may hit for stocks and crude. Trend and fundamentals remain strong for crude, and our target for crude continues to be 7900 this summer. S &P not likely to fall dramatically, and chances are it will be a buy on Sunday night.Continue reading
Grain cycles point lower on Friday
FOR FRIDAY: (5/18) Starting to sense that grain cycles are more likely to be lower on Friday, but we could get a surprise over the weekend. Have to get short in case something bigger happens to the market. Cattle should continue short-covering.Continue reading
S & P still looks higher into next week
FOR THURSDAY: (5/17): We had a reversal due for currencies for Wednesday, and it may have come in with Italy getting their act together. Still, a fall in the dollar may not be more than 2-3 more days and not be very much. S & P still looks higher into next week with Thursday higher. Gold may retrace overdone conditions now.Continue reading
Grains, meats too oversold to sell
FOR THURSDAY (5/17): Thursdays aren’t usually kind to grains or meats but there‘s a friendly cycle into mid-day that may allow a recovery. Meats and grains are too oversold to sell and if new lows come early, the trade may short-cover.Continue reading
No major sell signal yet for stocks
FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/16): Trade a bit on edge with war game exercises spooking the North Korean President. Higher interest rates make 3-year bills a win over stock dividends and 10-year note over 3% is a bit of a take-the-money-in-May-and-run play. Stocks haven’t put in a major sell signal yet but are on the edge. Patterns on bonds look deeper into next week so the writings on the wall there.Continue reading