FOR MONDAY: (5/21) We’re moving into a pre-holiday week and the trade may be going home after Wednesday. Monday morning looks lower for stocks so we’re open to a pullback but it may end up being a buy into Tuesday. Gold and silver look higher much of next week as does crude, and the dollar should pullback next week.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (5/21) Market didn’t fall much but is still vulnerable to 2696.50 on Monday. Cycles for early Monday seem brittle and emotional, and any difficult news may lead to lower prices. S & P above 2723 would look friendlier and then above 2727.50 would be helpful. Once 2732 comes out, we may not see the lower action. Hard to take a position on Monday. If 2696.50-2700 come in, we have a bias toward buying at least into Tuesday.
OVERALL: We’re not expecting any major fallout and a new high to 2779 or more is possible into June if the market behaves. Lately, seasonal trends have extended later in June rather than May, and often this occurs after the 2nd week of June. Cash closed at 2720 and that will be a balance point early this morning. Cash support at 2699-2700 may be all that we see in the worst-case scenario.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Bottoming Monday; higher into Tuesday.
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