FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) The 29-day cycle is weak for grains and we favor lower prices into Sunday and maybe Monday. Cattle should bounce and didn’t fall much on Thursday, and hogs may hold and bounce a few days but are in trouble. Month end-position squaring by funds will distort things into Monday.Continue reading
Could see strong movement on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) There’s a lot of energy on Thursday and we could see strong movements, and we have a bias toward upward action for stocks but will the trade do much before FOMC which is announcing May 2? That likely means pre-FOMC congestion, and if we are lucky some pattern completions overnight for gold and silver and the dollar, they would set up trades but we’ll soon have to deal with congestion. Continue reading
Grains a bit overdone
FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) Grains are a bit overdone and we would expect prices to come off from highs into Thursday into early next week into Monday. Still, wheat might get a bit absurd despite no real news pushing it here. Cattle should pull back, and that pullback may last into Monday. Hogs are higher for a few days and in case they get wild, we should get something on.Continue reading
Stocks look lower on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Stocks look lower on Wednesday and we’re open to sell, and tech stocks look particularly bad. Still, these wash-out Tuesdays often recover overnight setting up the best new sales by 9 am. We have had a bias toward stocks into Monday and we just missed the boat by about a day.Continue reading
Grains should go up one more day
OR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Grains should go up one more day but we’re skeptical about too much more. Cattle came off sharply with the US stock market and given that we see stocks down again on Wednesday, we won’t buy, but if they have a weak bounce, we probably will sell on Thursday.Continue reading
Stocks look higher on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Stocks look higher on Tuesday but there’s an overall volatile cycle so markets could get whippy. Crude looked great and the correction may be over, and that makes us wonder if we can look for a slight new low on stocks on Wednesday. Will depend on if Tuesday’s rally is strong or not. Cycles are generally more positive.Continue reading
Beans close to key support at 1025
FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Beans are close to key support at 1025 and corn held up well; wheat should hold 468 and do some dead-cat bounces. Cattle looks good for a few days to the upside and hogs should be down hard on Tuesday on a weak cold storage report.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/24) Support at 385 held and lower plantings are supportive for a dead cat bounce in the night session but will it take out 389? Support is at 380-1 if the market fails at 389 and turns back down. Hard to consider longs so we will leave it alone and may not have a sale until Thursday or Friday if bounces are weak.
OVERALL: Weekly charts are starting to look vulnerable, and it will be hard to take out 400 in the spring.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Thursday.
Minor technical damage for stocks
FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Not sure what to expect over the weekend. The trade was not happy with the Democratic Party suing Trump and company and the insanity of it just seems another way of keeping negative press energy going. The inside scoop appears that Putin and Trump want to reconcile so there has to be a new media daze to keep people glued to their TVs. Some minor technical damage for stocks, and we’re bearish into the end of the month but need a good bounce to sell, and it should be there for a few days.Continue reading
Hard to get friendly toward grains
FOR MONDAY: (4/23) Hard to get friendly toward grains. We saw Friday sharply down but didn’t chase and now we may get weak bounces for a few days. Beans have a weak cycle on Monday and aren’t the one to bottom pick. Cattle on Feed report was considered neutral, but numbers seem negative and a 1-day wash-out would be good.Continue reading
Stock market close to issuing a breakdown
FOR FRIDAY: (4/20) One Fed Governor speaking on Friday and no other reports. Market close to issuing a breakdown but could do a secondary high into Monday and Tuesday. End of the week profit-taking will set in. Things not as tense as last weekend.Continue reading