FOR MONDAY: (4/30) We’re moving toward pre-FOMC position squaring and congestion, and then we also have month-end profit-taking by funds on Monday. A lot of mixed signals for stock market on Monday but if it does recover, it seems like a sale on the week if we get a good set-up and confirmation. May not have many good trades and then if we do put something on, we have to deal with FOMC day ALGOS and volatility. We may end up staying patient.Continue reading
Better chance for higher grains on Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (4/30) Friday’s spurt on grains wasn’t shocking and we had suggested taking profits on short beans. Patterns had suggested that wheat needed new highs, and it appears that has a good chance. We would think that month-end profit-taking could hit on Monday and we’re not inclined to chase. We feel better about higher prices for early Tuesday but wonder if that may be it, as corn and wheat are very close to pattern completions. Buy pullbacks on cattle for Monday and should see higher prices into Wednesday.Continue reading
Not ready to top-pick stocks
FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) Could end up with week-end profit-taking and then selling by Sunday as we move into the end of the month. Not ready to top-pick stocks tonight but may be open on Friday. Gold and dollar are fractions from key target areas.Continue reading
Cattle should bounce
FOR FRIDAY: (4/27) The 29-day cycle is weak for grains and we favor lower prices into Sunday and maybe Monday. Cattle should bounce and didn’t fall much on Thursday, and hogs may hold and bounce a few days but are in trouble. Month end-position squaring by funds will distort things into Monday.Continue reading
Could see strong movement on Thursday
FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) There’s a lot of energy on Thursday and we could see strong movements, and we have a bias toward upward action for stocks but will the trade do much before FOMC which is announcing May 2? That likely means pre-FOMC congestion, and if we are lucky some pattern completions overnight for gold and silver and the dollar, they would set up trades but we’ll soon have to deal with congestion. Continue reading
Grains a bit overdone
FOR THURSDAY: (4/26) Grains are a bit overdone and we would expect prices to come off from highs into Thursday into early next week into Monday. Still, wheat might get a bit absurd despite no real news pushing it here. Cattle should pull back, and that pullback may last into Monday. Hogs are higher for a few days and in case they get wild, we should get something on.Continue reading
Stocks look lower on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Stocks look lower on Wednesday and we’re open to sell, and tech stocks look particularly bad. Still, these wash-out Tuesdays often recover overnight setting up the best new sales by 9 am. We have had a bias toward stocks into Monday and we just missed the boat by about a day.Continue reading
Grains should go up one more day
OR WEDNESDAY: (4/25) Grains should go up one more day but we’re skeptical about too much more. Cattle came off sharply with the US stock market and given that we see stocks down again on Wednesday, we won’t buy, but if they have a weak bounce, we probably will sell on Thursday.Continue reading
Stocks look higher on Tuesday
FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Stocks look higher on Tuesday but there’s an overall volatile cycle so markets could get whippy. Crude looked great and the correction may be over, and that makes us wonder if we can look for a slight new low on stocks on Wednesday. Will depend on if Tuesday’s rally is strong or not. Cycles are generally more positive.Continue reading
Beans close to key support at 1025
FOR TUESDAY: (4/24) Beans are close to key support at 1025 and corn held up well; wheat should hold 468 and do some dead-cat bounces. Cattle looks good for a few days to the upside and hogs should be down hard on Tuesday on a weak cold storage report.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (4/24) Support at 385 held and lower plantings are supportive for a dead cat bounce in the night session but will it take out 389? Support is at 380-1 if the market fails at 389 and turns back down. Hard to consider longs so we will leave it alone and may not have a sale until Thursday or Friday if bounces are weak.
OVERALL: Weekly charts are starting to look vulnerable, and it will be hard to take out 400 in the spring.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Recovering into Thursday.