FOR FRIDAY: (4/20) One Fed Governor speaking on Friday and no other reports. Market close to issuing a breakdown but could do a secondary high into Monday and Tuesday. End of the week profit-taking will set in. Things not as tense as last weekend.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (4/20) Market held the key 2680 region, and even if it takes it out, we have support at 2674 and then major support at 2650. Market may have trouble getting through 2700. We didn’t get a definitive breakdown, but it seems like it’s coming. If we get a sideways day, then Sunday and Monday and maybe Tuesday look higher, and a divergent high could come but skeptical.
The market faked us out with a false breakout by 5 points but in the wild swings of this market we ‘ll have to increase our slippage factor. The 3-wave pattern was complete at 2713. The larger pattern suggests that this is a D wave in a congestion triangle that has completed but it’s not confirmed, and it would look much better if 2746-48 came in first. Friday is the more vulnerable day. If the market doesn’t break key levels, we’re open to a slight new high on Sunday/Monday. If the market is going to start an E-wave fall, it’s more likely to be between April 25-30. We haven’t measured that fall but it doesn’t have to be huge.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower Friday; higher Sunday/Monday/Tuesday; lower into April 30.

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