FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Seems like it could be a repeat of last week with a strong Tuesday bounce and then stocks fall apart again. Have to get short stocks again and the other 1-day retracements will be followed by a continuation of the trends from Monday.Continue reading
29/30-day grain cycles higher the next few days
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Cycles are complicated for Wednesday and patterns are mixed enough that we will leave the markets alone. Cattle clearly have at least one more rung to go but harder to chase. Cycles into Wednesday/Thursday have often been dramatically bearish but once in a while they invert, and the 29/30-day cycles for grains are higher the next few days so we’re feeling confused as to how to take new positions. We can’t totally ignore the USDA report and yet the market is often vulnerable in April with competition from South America. Only cold and snow weather delays for planting are a plus.
Tuesday best chance for a stocks recovery
FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Tuesday is the best day of the week for a stock market recovery but new lows are coming so will have to get short any absurd bounce that happens and be ready for the rest of the week. That should give gold a pause and the dollar has a 5th wave high to do and crude needs a bounce.Continue reading
Cycles mixed this week
FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least two more days but hard to play limit down moves.Continue reading
Finding places for new shorts on stocks a tricky proposition
FOR MONDAY: (4/2) The long weekend can’t come soon enough for traders, as initial Tweets about hurting Amazon were taken back and techs soared 2% to erase losses. Trade was horribly thin on Thursday and may not mean much but finding places for new shorts on stocks is tricky.Continue reading
3-day weekend volatility always exaggerated
FOR MONDAY: (4/2) First-of-the-month fund buying is always an issue and 3-day weekend volatility is always exaggerated. We have learned to avoid trading these post holidays and let the dust settle.Continue reading
Beans may not take out 1035-36 before the report
FOR THURSDAY: (3/29) Not planning a lot of trading before or after the reports on Thursday or into Monday. Three-day weekends are very volatile. We have outlined patterns and cycles below and you are welcome to trade but time for a rest with the Easter/Passover holiday.Continue reading
Stocks going to break the first few weeks of April
FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
FOR THURSDAY: There‘s so much background noise going into the weekend and coming out of the weekend that it’s hard to imagine anything positive happening. Action on Thursday was wild both ways with position squaring and did not make much sense, particularly in the dollar. What is clear is that stocks are going to break the first few weeks of April and we have to get short and survive the computer trading. Not sure we have to or want to take much home but it will be difficult to position without better risk/rewards if you’re brave.Continue reading
S&P may do 3-wave bounce on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: We got busy and when we looked up the market had suddenly returned to levels seen at Monday’s lows. Tough to pin a catalyst in this flush – which has pushed S&P red and Nasdaq down hard – but a combination of NVDA’s drop, TSLA’s tumble, 5Y auction tail, and FB comments, seems to be stalling the bounce. Cycles are particularly bad for NQ through mid-April and between Facebook, and soon to be Twitter and TSLA, and there’s big trouble in River City and more is likely come. We stayed short stocks on our ETF timer with SDS, as we knew the other shoe would drop into mid-April but we had thought we had another day to nibble at shorts.Continue reading
Grains headed for short-covering
FOR WEDNESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading