FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) The monthly USDA report is often a cycle turn, and it came in as a high for beans and wheat. Patterns to the upside aren’t quite done for beans, and the wheat fundamentals are too good to fade. Normally we would project cycle lows for grains into Sunday/Monday based on our work, and that leaves us unable to pull the trigger. If pullbacks do come and they are minor, I suspect the grain markets will be a buy thereafter. We did have a bias for higher cattle the next few days and would like to buy. We don’t trust hogs but never sell on Wednesdays.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (4/9) Too much news over the weekend to put in too many orders. USDA report on Tuesday will get position squaring going. The USDA report is often a turn for the month, and grain cycles look lower from Wednesday into April 16-17. Cattle are still on the ropes until Tuesday but might bounce off of limit down on Monday. Rallies on hogs for Monday should be sold.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) More trade wars announced tonight are likely to unnerve overbought grains and meats now, so chances are they’re a sale and then we’ll see where we are on Monday. If grains pull back a few days and haven’t hit upper targets, then there might be a buy if you want to gamble before the USDA report on Tuesday. We have a bias for a positive reaction and continue to look at pullbacks into April 16 as providing the best possible entry. We’re completing research and this will be anything but a normal weather year, and that means grains will stay bid. Late plantings are a concern but it’s still too early to worry and hot and dry problems this summer may finally create a weather market—the double-edged sword.

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Knee-jerk reactions on very bad news can create major lows and buying opportunities and the smart money was buying the dip last night and the movement was exaggerated. While grains may retrace a few days now into Friday, they look higher early next week and then we have the USDA report coming. Cattle hit key numbers that we had projected the last few days very closely and they also look done and hogs recovered also so the worst may be over.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/4) Cycles are complicated for Wednesday and patterns are mixed enough that we will leave the markets alone. Cattle clearly have at least one more rung to go but harder to chase. Cycles into Wednesday/Thursday have often been dramatically bearish but once in a while they invert, and the 29/30-day cycles for grains are higher the next few days so we’re feeling confused as to how to take new positions. We can’t totally ignore the USDA report and yet the market is often vulnerable in April with competition from South America. Only cold and snow weather delays for planting are a plus.