Cattle looking strong into Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (4/13) Going to go with longs on beans and corn if we can get good value. Will pass on wheat. Cattle took off and we can hold into Monday with weather over the weekend and the return to winter.Continue reading

Markets on edge with a potential missile strike against Syria

FOR THURSDAY: (4/12) Markets on edge with a potential missile strike against Syria within 72 hours. With a repeat of last year’s April 5 event pending, one has to look at that cycle. Last year the stock market fell 50 points over 8 days when that happened and given recent volatility swings, that’s more likely to happen in an hour this time. Gold spiked and the dollar fell.Continue reading

Going with long beans, corn

FOR THURSDAY: (4/12) Going to go with longs on beans and corn if we can get good value. Will pass on wheat. Cattle are ok but still may erode on Thursday before they take off. We probably have to go with the cycle inversion cycle into Monday, as markets are not showing too many signs of pulling back, although wheat may have a chance and that will probably make us pause.Continue reading

Bean patterns not quite done to the upside

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/11) The monthly USDA report is often a cycle turn, and it came in as a high for beans and wheat. Patterns to the upside aren’t quite done for beans, and the wheat fundamentals are too good to fade. Normally we would project cycle lows for grains into Sunday/Monday based on our work, and that leaves us unable to pull the trigger. If pullbacks do come and they are minor, I suspect the grain markets will be a buy thereafter. We did have a bias for higher cattle the next few days and would like to buy. We don’t trust hogs but never sell on Wednesdays.Continue reading

USDA report is often a turn for the month

FOR MONDAY: (4/9) Too much news over the weekend to put in too many orders. USDA report on Tuesday will get position squaring going. The USDA report is often a turn for the month, and grain cycles look lower from Wednesday into April 16-17. Cattle are still on the ropes until Tuesday but might bounce off of limit down on Monday. Rallies on hogs for Monday should be sold.Continue reading

Lower gold and higher dollars ahead

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) Too much volatility and too many surprises lately have us not in the mood to outguess the market for Friday. Thursday should have been down but it wasn’t, and does that mean a delayed impact on Friday? The sucker punch has changed the momentum. We do see lower gold and higher dollars so we have to assume the more bullish pattern for stocks.Continue reading

More trade wars announced tonight could torpedo grains, meats

FOR FRIDAY: (4/6) More trade wars announced tonight are likely to unnerve overbought grains and meats now, so chances are they’re a sale and then we’ll see where we are on Monday. If grains pull back a few days and haven’t hit upper targets, then there might be a buy if you want to gamble before the USDA report on Tuesday. We have a bias for a positive reaction and continue to look at pullbacks into April 16 as providing the best possible entry. We’re completing research and this will be anything but a normal weather year, and that means grains will stay bid. Late plantings are a concern but it’s still too early to worry and hot and dry problems this summer may finally create a weather market—the double-edged sword.

Favoring sideways to lower stocks for Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/5) Trade waiting on employment report. We have a bias toward sideways to lower stocks for Thursday and lower stocks on Friday but this market is full of surprises everyday. Gold should retrace 2 days now and the dollar is still wanting to go higher for a few days.Continue reading