FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Tuesday is the best day of the week for a stock market recovery but new lows are coming so will have to get short any absurd bounce that happens and be ready for the rest of the week. That should give gold a pause and the dollar has a 5th wave high to do and crude needs a bounce.Continue reading
Cycles mixed this week
FOR TUESDAY: (4/3) Mixed data. Spillover from the stock market was ugly, and that may hurt the market into mid-week. Cycles are mixed enough and action erratic that we have a low-confidence trade but will hang on. Cattle may bounce 1-2 days and set up new shorts, and hogs are in trouble for at least two more days but hard to play limit down moves.Continue reading
Finding places for new shorts on stocks a tricky proposition
FOR MONDAY: (4/2) The long weekend can’t come soon enough for traders, as initial Tweets about hurting Amazon were taken back and techs soared 2% to erase losses. Trade was horribly thin on Thursday and may not mean much but finding places for new shorts on stocks is tricky.Continue reading
3-day weekend volatility always exaggerated
FOR MONDAY: (4/2) First-of-the-month fund buying is always an issue and 3-day weekend volatility is always exaggerated. We have learned to avoid trading these post holidays and let the dust settle.Continue reading
Beans may not take out 1035-36 before the report
FOR THURSDAY: (3/29) Not planning a lot of trading before or after the reports on Thursday or into Monday. Three-day weekends are very volatile. We have outlined patterns and cycles below and you are welcome to trade but time for a rest with the Easter/Passover holiday.Continue reading
Stocks going to break the first few weeks of April
FINANCIAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
FOR THURSDAY: There‘s so much background noise going into the weekend and coming out of the weekend that it’s hard to imagine anything positive happening. Action on Thursday was wild both ways with position squaring and did not make much sense, particularly in the dollar. What is clear is that stocks are going to break the first few weeks of April and we have to get short and survive the computer trading. Not sure we have to or want to take much home but it will be difficult to position without better risk/rewards if you’re brave.Continue reading
S&P may do 3-wave bounce on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: We got busy and when we looked up the market had suddenly returned to levels seen at Monday’s lows. Tough to pin a catalyst in this flush – which has pushed S&P red and Nasdaq down hard – but a combination of NVDA’s drop, TSLA’s tumble, 5Y auction tail, and FB comments, seems to be stalling the bounce. Cycles are particularly bad for NQ through mid-April and between Facebook, and soon to be Twitter and TSLA, and there’s big trouble in River City and more is likely come. We stayed short stocks on our ETF timer with SDS, as we knew the other shoe would drop into mid-April but we had thought we had another day to nibble at shorts.Continue reading
Grains headed for short-covering
FOR WEDNESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading
War and terrorism cycles are strong
FOR TUESDAY: Sucker-punch Monday and suddenly everything is wonderful! May last another day but something bizarre will happen late in the week and into the long weekend. War and terrorism cycles are strong and it is something we do not want to predict but it’s edgy out there. Stocks will get spooked again quickly probably after early Wednesday.Continue reading
Minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday
FOR TUESDAY: Grain cycles are complicated and USDA report on Thursday before the end of the week may lead to a lot of short-covering. Strong closes on Friday were from key pattern completions so minor pullbacks may lead to additional short-covering into Wednesday. We usually don’ like to play this congestive week before the report.Continue reading