FOR TUESDAY: (3/20) Grains fell hard and we missed shorts on beans and it’s late to chase wheat, and corn got dragged under the bus with the two of them. Rains in the U.S. Plains and in Argentina triggered sharp cuts in grain prices to start the week, with winter wheat, spring wheat, soybeans and soymeal all taking double-digit losses. Corn futures were also down nearly 2% on “spillover weakness,” despite another positive round of export data from UDSA.Continue reading
G-20 rhetoric on Monday/Tuesday may impact markets
FOR MONDAY: (3/19) G-20 rhetoric on Monday/Tuesday may impact trade fears with China. Cycles are suggesting lower prices for grains for a few days. Cattle is due for a 1-2 day bounce but probably lower into the end of the week. Hogs are oversold but patterns suggest lower prices.Continue reading
News-flow may be more dynamic before FOMC
FOR MONDAY: (3/19) The G-20 finance meeting is Monday and Tuesday, and rhetoric is likely to fly, and news-flow may be more dynamic before FOMC release on Wednesday. Given the recent trade-war rhetoric and tensions with UK and Russia, it would seem that this meeting may be more significant than normal. Still, they usually find a way to keep rhetoric tight and professional.Continue reading
Congestive action is troubling
FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) We have a bias toward a recovery for stocks the next few days but can’t rule out that the trade war concerns won’t create weakness overnight. T-notes are set to recover into Friday but gold is failing Trade starting to look ahead to the G20 meeting next week where trade wars and Bitcoin muzzling are likely to make this meeting more crucial than usual. We’re starting to watch and project Bitcoin but more cycles to come.Continue reading
Not pressing grain sales
FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) Grains continue to be whippy with Chinese trade fears and other craziness happening. Soybean prices saw a double-digit drop Wednesday amid expectations for a huge 2018 U.S. crop, and corn also trended lower, but wheat hung on for some small gains as traders contemplated export data, weather trends, South American crops and more. We’re working on our spring and summer forecasts and hope to publish longer-term overview soon.Continue reading
T-notes set to recover into Friday
FOR THURSDAY: (3/15) We have a bias toward a recovery for stocks the next few days but can’t rule out that the trade war concerns won’t create weakness overnight. T-notes are set to recover into Friday, as is gold. Trade starting to look ahead to the G20 meeting next week where trade wars and Bitcoin muzzling are likely to make this meeting more crucial than usual.Continue reading
Grains continue to be whippy
FOR THURSDAY: (3/15) Grains continue to be whippy with Chinese trade fears and other craziness happening. Soybean prices saw a double-digit drop Wednesday amid expectations for a huge 2018 U.S. crop, and corn also trended lower, but wheat hung on for some small gains as traders contemplated export data, weather trends, South American crops and more.Continue reading
Next cluster of key cycles into March 18
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) There was a huge cluster of positive cycles peaking into March 12-13–and given a number of reversals, we have to assume that something bigger is happening until the next cluster into March 18, and then the trade is on hold into the FOMC announcement. On the fundamental level, trade war against China is not a help for the market and the momentum that started Tuesday, may continue. Reuters is reporting that Trump is planning to impose tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese imports. The tariffs will primarily target technology and telecommunications imports – but would not be expressly limited to these sectors, according to one source. Politico reported earlier that Trump rejected a plan for imposing $30 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, saying they weren’t big enough. Just when investors thought President Trump might be easing up on his protectionist push following the uproar caused by his decision to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Politico is reporting that Trump’s next trade salvo will be explicitly directed at China.
Getting out of short grains and going long.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/14) We looked closely at grain cycles and the most bearish cycles ended last night and most of the cycles into Friday and next Sunday seem friendly. Patterns aren’t done to the downside with beans but definitely getting a bit late to push shorts, and they probably have bottomed already. Getting out of short grains and going long.
MAY FEEDER CATTLE (electronic session ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Stand aside.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/14) Not enough of a recovery here but you would think they’ll follow live cattle higher. Resistance at 145.50 is minimum target. Small chance for 141.65 first. We will leave it alone but we do expect a recovery to Monday even if there’s a new low on the current move on Wednesday.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming Wednesday; higher into Monday.
Will watch the 2771 region
FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) CPI is key here but market not likely to crash with new highs in NQ and likely to come in SP. Will watch the 2771 region for a place to be a buyer.Continue reading