FOR TUESDAY: (3/20) Too much news this week with the G-20 finishing, FOMC on Wednesday, new Chinese tariffs on Friday and fighting over the next budget going into the end of the week. Add saber-rattling with the UK and Russia and political punches from both sides still trying to take down or protect the President, and it’s a bit of a mess. Tension cycles not done until April 2-4 so I suspect we have a lot more noise coming. Will favor logical trades here which means long gold, short dollars and short stocks but we have to tread carefully.

TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (3/20) We missed getting short this morning by about 4 points, and the market retraced 66% of the recent range. Usually the Monday is a low and then the market recovers into FOMC but there are a lot of ugly events hanging out there, including new China tariffs coming on Friday, budget wrangling, FOMC, a dump in Facebook of 8%–not to mention political rhetoric with both sides going for blood. The 78% retracement at 2672 wouldn’t be shocking in this congestion triangle scenario but we’re starting to wonder if the news-flow is dark enough that this market will go to the 2500 area that never came in on the first dip in February. The market bounced to parabolic resistance. Would need the market to take out 2728 to issue a minor buy signal, and the background noise inspires selling for now. Will the trade go sideways before FOMC? Not chancing anything overnight but a sale is inviting.

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