FOR TUESDAY: (3/13) Not sure the grains will continue much lower past Tuesday or a more congestive pattern may develop. Willing to buy hogs but mixed signals on cattle.
JULY CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/13) Wheat bounced enough that 500 isn’t likely to come out. Market may be a buy in the morning actually but we’ll see how it acts overnight. Need to do more work around the rest of the month.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Tuesday; recovering Wednesday.
FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Stock market roared back to life with huge gains in employment and lessening fear about North Korea and tariffs. Minor cycles point lower for a few days so we’ll have to see what Tweet happens over the weekend to worry the markets. Still, larger optimism cycle into Tuesday may override everything. There’s a lot of crazy optimism out there and it may not go away. Given the way patterns look on NQ, have to assume you buy the S & P until NQ futures hit 7500. Not sure what to do with weak March seasonals but they seem ore likely to be a problem the last week of March for now and then often we get a pullback into tax filings.Continue reading
FOR MONDAY: (3/12) Technicals issued strong sell signals for wheat and beans although we had noted them earlier. If we get bounces, we can still sell as a larger pullback is likely to happen now. Cattle look higher on Monday on the technically strong close and hogs are unclear.Continue reading
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) Gary Cohen resigned late in the day and the stock market sold off strongly, and there are more Tariff wars with China looming in late news. It’s going from bad to worse for globalists following the Gary Cohn resignation, as Bloomberg just reported that the Trump administration is considering a major clamp down on Chinese investments in the U.S. by slapping tariffs on a broad range of its imports in response to alleged intellectual-property theft. Some chaos already overnight and more coming.Continue reading
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/7) We looked closely at grain cycles and could see grains holding up into Friday and higher pattern completions coming in. Cattle look lower for a few days and hogs look lower into Thursday. USDA report on Thursday may create sideways action position squaring now. Wild spillover from Financial markets likely also.Continue reading
FOR TUESDAY: (3/6) We could see stocks retrace some of Monday’s gains on Tuesday before going higher into Wednesday and Thursday. Dollar looks lower now and gold higher but it’s not significant for a choppy week. Oil should recover into Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.
OVERALL: Monday can be important for taking a position on the week, but the week before employment report can be whippy and congestive and doesn’t always lend itself to trend trading. We have a bias for higher stocks this week into Thursday but the ideal buy S & P zones of 2630 or 2602 haven’t come in and have a chance early in the week. Dollar is usually congestive this week and hoping for a weak rally in gold so we can get short into March 13. We’re watching key turns on March 8 and 13 for most of these markets.
FOR TUESDAY: (3/6) We looked closely at grain cycles and could see grains holding up into Friday and higher pattern completions coming in. Cattle look lower for a few days and hogs look lower into Thursday.Continue reading
FOR MONDAY: (3/5) From what we can tell, the Italian election isn’t a big deal and no party is likely to get a majority, which will ultimately be good for a coalition government. The trade war is heating up, with Europe going to tax bourbon, Harleys and blue jeans. Studies from 2002 note that Bush’s 30% tariff on steel back then was a major factor in contributing to a 30% fall in the stock market into 2003. We’re so used to surprises that we’re not going to take a lot of positions going into Sunday. The week of employment report can be congestive with a big-range Monday but not sure big ranges mean anything anymore.Continue reading
FOR MONDAY: (3/5) We have a bias for topping grains over the next session and lower action into March 12-13. We do sense that they are very overdone and any shift in bullish weather will lead to massive selling, so be careful. Hogs look lower next week but Monday could be higher and cattle may recover a day and turn lower into Wednesday of next week.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/5) One more push higher will go to at least 397.75 with upper resistance at 401.75 unlikely. Daily chart patterns would suggest a minor fall to max. 389 or 386. Larger patterns project 413 and 422 into the spring but hard to get too excited. We have a bias toward a retracement from March 5- into March 12-13 but aren’t in a rush to sell as this market has remained bid.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Topping Sunday/Monday.
FOR FRIDAY: (3/2) We do sense a completion of bullish grain energy by Sunday or early Monday and then a pullback for at least 5-6 days. Still, this market keeps galloping and July wheat projects 544 and July beans a 1082.50 or 1088, and July corn could get pulled up to 400. Time and price targets may be complete by Monday.Continue reading
