FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) We have a bias toward a recovery for stocks the next few days but can’t rule out that the trade war concerns won’t create weakness overnight. T-notes are set to recover into Friday but gold is failing Trade starting to look ahead to the G20 meeting next week where trade wars and Bitcoin muzzling are likely to make this meeting more crucial than usual. We’re starting to watch and project Bitcoin but more cycles to come.
JUNE E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (3/16) S & P hit 2745 overnight, which is just a bit more than max. slippage of 5 points below key numbers for futures. Three-wave rally could retest 2768.50 but market needs to get through 2772 to show some life. Congestive action is troubling but market isn’t breaking either, which is a reminder to the late bears.
NQ has held above 7000-7019 which is important. We continue to go with the premise that a pre-FOMC congestion between 2745-2793 is more likely than a meltdown. If this is a 4th wave congestion, new highs are still possible after FOMC.
The most obvious quick retracement if bullish optimism comes back in would be to 2783.50 but if the market is sluggish before FOMC, this could take into Monday. We have gotten so used to big range days, it would be shocking to see this market slow down.
Key support at 2742.75 where 3 waves would be complete off of the 2807 high. Additional support for a surprise breakdown would go to 2734.50. There is a lot of tired energy in the air and the trade is looking ahead to G-20 and FOMC next week and wondering why they would commit to new buying. Still we not like to ignore broader market signals that we have seen in NQ.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Recovering into Friday.