FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) We were wrong in expecting lower grains on Monday, as weather trumped all other factors. Now thinking that grains are higher on Tuesday into Wednesday. Upward momentum with weather seems rather strong and we think it will continue into the end of the week.Continue reading
Could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday
FOR MONDAY: (2/12) We could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday and if they hold, we would expect a recovery next week from oversold conditions for stocks. Metals look lower next week and the dollar higher. Crude may be too oversold to hold now.
OVERALL: Rand Paul’s heroics could not pull-off fiscal responsibility and in the long run, it will hurt the perception of the US but since we are dealing with unbacked phony printed money and illusion that our nation works, who cares if we can drink the Kool-Aid for another 2 years and pretend that our economy really works? In the meantime, Amazon announced they are competing with Fed-Ex and UPS with a new delivery and pick-up service so we wonder when corporate America will start yelling anti-trust? Those companies are tanking.
Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday
FOR MONDAY: (2/12) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday. We think markets are overdone and due for some kind of correction for at least 2-3 days but if the move isn’t impulsive, we’ll have to get out and expect a recovery to new highs for wheat, and corn may get dragged along. Cattle should have short-covering next week.Continue reading
Concerned that key numbers for stocks are already in
FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) There’s a certain amount of chaos that makes us rather gun shy. We’re concerned that key numbers for stocks came in already with two more days of possible movement lower but without a decent risk/reward, hard to play now. These markets will get back to normal at some point but we’ll continue to be cautious unless cycles and patterns are crystal clear.Continue reading
Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday
FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) Grain cycles look lower into Tuesday, with Friday having the best chance of a move up if weather changes. We think markets are overdone and due for some kind of correction for at least 2-3 days–but if it’s not impulsive, we’ll have to get out and expect a recovery to new highs for wheat, and corn may get dragged. Cattle should be lower at least one more day before short-covering hits early next week.Continue reading
Trade not liking the bond auction
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) Trade not liking the bond auction or the fiscal irresponsibility of the budget but the House will probably pass and probably a lame end of years of kicking the can. In the meantime, stocks are in complicated congestion pattern, and that means you get these big waves and bounces. Can’t touch overnight.Continue reading
Wheat hit key target
FOR THURSDAY: (2/8) USDA report on Thursday has the market a bit overbought on weather, and the reality of fundamentals could send it spinning lower into Friday. Wheat hit key target also but funds may push it much higher, and we hate chasing these markets around reports. Upper targets starting to come in.Continue reading
Still on high-volatility alert
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) Still on high-volatility alert for a few more weeks but the lowest and most extreme numbers should be in for a while and may not even come out into the March low. If the budget deal looks promising, they may quickly take the market up to 2802. Fun trading now if you have nerves of steel.Continue reading
SA weather markets are back.
FOR WEDNESDAY: (2/7) SA weather markets are back. Argentina weather continues to be a key grain market mover this winter, as a fresh set of slightly drier forecasts handed out double-digit gains for soybean futures, with corn prices seeing a moderate bounce as well. Wheat prices also finished higher on U.S. weather woes – namely, drought conditions that persist in the High Plains and other key production areas. Luckily we took partial profits on beans but did not get out of corn. Our work had suggested weather problems in SA in Feb. and we had see cycle lows into Friday, but that may come after March corn hits 368 and March beans 998. Weather is fickle but we have to get out at this point.
FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Panic cycles can alter everything so we have to trade off of pattern. We can’t jump on the media’s panic energy or discussion of record DOW point falls, and of course we have to look at the percentage fall–and today’s fall was nothing like Oct. 1987. The Dow is only 30 stocks and we have stopped covering it for that reason. Still, we’re open for something deeper into Friday or maybe a bit longer but Tuesday may be the best day of the week for a bounce. Foreign overnight panic momentum can always feed this market so their markets are more likely to lay big eggs overnight.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (2/6) Computer models at the close point to support at 2584 with a bounce target of 2651 and 2688. Daily and weekly chart key targets now come in at 2520 and 2500. We should note that monthly chart parabolic support is at 2569, and it will take a monthly chart close below there for us to re-evaluate. Lower weekly chart support is all the way to 2290 if 2500 comes out. Timing suggests pressure until at least Feb. 9 but these big moves are often followed by huge congestive triangles, and the chance of a 78% bounce happening at some point. We’re more open to a bounce on Tuesday than any other day of the week and so hard to chase this market. Bounces on Tuesday suggest 2652 and 2689.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Feb. 9.