FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) Cycles look positive but we may have everyone heading early for the exits for a much-needed holiday. Assuming profit-taking will set in by 9 am on trending situations, which means gold and silver coming off and short-covering for the dollar. Best entries may be Monday during the holiday for new longs on metals and shorts on the dollar.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/16) The close above 2727 means we won’t get much of a pullback, if any. Cycles are strong the next few trading days and not thinking there are too many major scares out there to keep the trade from buying before the long weekend. We assume that the 78% retracement up to 2802 will come in. We have a cycle high into Monday and a pullback for 2-3 days next week. Basically, we are in sucker-punch mode where the late bears may get punched out if they are not careful. In the end the chances of seeing a 78% retracement up to 2802 could happen by Monday if the trade is open to pre-holiday and holiday buying on Monday in Europe and Asia.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Friday; topping into Monday.

FOR THURSDAY: (2/15) Insane day on Wednesday and not sure anyone survived. Hard to be able to dip your toe into the water now. Seems like momentum from Wednesday will peak early Thursday and then turn into Monday. Hard to chase anything, as a bit more will happen and then profit-taking will set in before the 3-day weekend.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (2/13) Volatility if back for those who have been tired with straight up but it does require full-time attention; you have to be on guard, and it negates taking much home overnight. Mondays sometimes are throw-away days so we have to see if any of the trends that start with gold and the dollar and oil today mean anything in the morning.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (2/12) We could see secondary lows for stocks on Monday and if they hold, we would expect a recovery next week from oversold conditions for stocks. Metals look lower next week and the dollar higher. Crude may be too oversold to hold now.
OVERALL: Rand Paul’s heroics could not pull-off fiscal responsibility and in the long run, it will hurt the perception of the US but since we are dealing with unbacked phony printed money and illusion that our nation works, who cares if we can drink the Kool-Aid for another 2 years and pretend that our economy really works? In the meantime, Amazon announced they are competing with Fed-Ex and UPS with a new delivery and pick-up service so we wonder when corporate America will start yelling anti-trust? Those companies are tanking.

FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) There’s a certain amount of chaos that makes us rather gun shy. We’re concerned that key numbers for stocks came in already with two more days of possible movement lower but without a decent risk/reward, hard to play now. These markets will get back to normal at some point but we’ll continue to be cautious unless cycles and patterns are crystal clear.Continue reading