FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) There’s a certain amount of chaos that makes us rather gun shy. We’re concerned that key numbers for stocks came in already with two more days of possible movement lower but without a decent risk/reward, hard to play now. These markets will get back to normal at some point but we’ll continue to be cautious unless cycles and patterns are crystal clear.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (2/9) The market went beyond our lowest number of 2591 and we had thought that might take until Monday to happen–and with cycles more bearish on Friday, we have to worry and think a double-bottom will be next or a divergent low. Moving average resistance is all the way up to 2646 and parabolic resistance at 2651. Hard to take a position overnight. Given that we are more bearish for Friday and Monday than we were for Thursday, it may be easier to get short if we can find a decent risk/reward. Cash closed at 2581 so futures are ahead overnight.
OVERALL: We continue to see wild congestion and not thinking new lows will come in February. The chances of lower action on Friday and Monday is greater than today. The market much below 2580 will quickly set up new lows.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Friday and probably Monday.
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