Major completions on Monday but…

FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) Our cycle and pattern work shows major completions on Monday but without a key trigger and reversal, we can’t fight these trending situations that funds are eating up. It’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) The S & P is closer to 2800 but the parabolic rise of the market continues to be astounding and latest projection of 2983 originally might have come in toward June but seems like it could happen well before then. If we get a 70-point pullback, and some cycles would allow it, it may not mean much and bears should stop trying to top pick because bull markets make fools out of top-pickers. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

Gold topping, dollar bottoming by Sunday

FOR MONDAY: (1/15) The trade likes these trending situations and the computers eat them up and accelerate them. Between the good news for the euro and trending stocks, it’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Topping energy for gold and bottoming for the dollar by Sunday and then a reversal there until Jan. 24. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (1/15) Market very close to key pattern completion at 2793 but if 2805 comes out the extended target is up to 2828.25. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking. Market couldn’t fall today during the weakest cycle of the week. Open to seeing it come off on Sunday night but not sure it will mean much without a lot of news.

NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.

SHORT-TERM: (1/05) We think the market will cause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19th. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.

CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Topping and lower Sunday; retracing into Jan. 19.

Oversold conditions for meats, grains should create recoveries

FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) Forecasts call for below normal temps next week and oversold conditions for meats and grains should create recoveries into next Friday. Given bearish grain reports, hard to be too aggressive buying, and beans are too much off of their lows to have a good risk/reward so we’ll see how they come in on Tuesday morning. Wheat broke enough that we can’t think buy and will need a miracle to get up to 445-50 again. Corn likely to be dull.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/16) Market didn’t get down to key support at 941.50 or 938 abut bounced enough to confirm cycle highs and a recovery into next week. Beans could easily recover to 968.50 and 976 this week. Not sure we can count on more before 928 wants to come in. Not much hope from SA weather and at some point their crop will be made and this market will tank to 880 based on current patterns.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming by Monday night/Tuesday; recovering into Jan. 22; lower into Jan. 24.

Looking to get short crude and gold

FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) We forget that we have a holiday weekend coming up and even though there’s a lot of trading in Europe, trading will be muted on Monday. We’re going to get short crude and gold, as we see trending situations now until Jan. 24. Not clear on the dollar but will wait for the long weekend to take a position.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) The push above 2760 reminds us why we should never rush to short this market. Key resistance up to 2793.25 now. We had thought that Friday was the best day be lower but will it be much or matter? Continued failing momentum suggests they will take it down the 70 points but exhaust us in the process. We had thought that the start of the move lower is more likely tonight or Friday.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.
SHORT-TERM: (1/05) Thinking that the market is lower Jan. 12 and into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a 3-week correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Jan. 12; lower into Jan. 19.

Trade willing to throw beans off a cliff as SA weather improves

FOR FRIDAY: (1/12) Not sure we learned much on Thursday except that the trade is willing to throw beans off a cliff as SA weather improves. Trade waiting on USDA report for Friday. Grain cycles look like short-covering will happen now and then next week looks higher for grains. Cattle also seems in trouble for another day. With the long holiday weekend, we have to move stops down tightly on meats and exit by the close on Friday. Pre-holiday short-covering could happen but hard to go long without key numbers coming in.Continue reading

Still favoring short stocks

FOR THURSDAY: (1/11) Did we react too quickly on the China news? Have to see what happens on Wednesday night. The rumor is now unconfirmed so will it be back to business as usual? We got caught in the knee-jerk reaction and now have all kinds of conflicting data.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/11) A 3-wave bounce for a secondary high would go to 2758.50. If you got short, have to have stops above 2753.50 and even 2752 is too much. We’re more clear that Friday is lower and so we have to think that a secondary high can come in.
OVERALL: S & P broke 2740 and 2760 was close enough to 2762 to have completed 5 waves up. That could mean that the 70-point pullback into Friday is starting to 2690. The most bullish interpretation left would be hold 2730 and matching the 30-point correction we had on the last day of the year and then going to 2790. Given our orientation toward weaker action into Friday and somewhat dire news out of China—that could change—we have to go with shorts now.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Lower into Jan. 12; lower into Jan. 19.

Hogs in trouble into Monday

FOR THURSDAY: (1/11) Trade waiting on USDA reports at the end of the week. Grain cycles look like short-covering will happen now and then next week looks higher for grains. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days into Friday or part of Monday. Hogs also in trouble into Monday.Continue reading

Breakout on crude today a game changer

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/10) Breakout on crude today is a game changer but we do have a cycle high due by Thursday and a 2-week correction coming but inflation is back. S & P has its best opening for the year in 30 years and we’re not going to throw cold water on this wonderful event. Our work had suggested a pullback is due but will it be much and matter if 2780 comes in first?Continue reading

Cattle showing some short-covering life

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/10) Trade waiting on USDA report at the end of the week. Still, cycles are weak a few more days before short-covering starts. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days into Friday but showing some short-covering life and we’ll have to move stops lower.Continue reading

Two very energetic cycles due on Tuesday

FOR TUESDAY: (1/09) Not sure we learned much from Monday’s action and the NE is still digging out from its storms. There are two very energetic cycles on Tuesday and they may bring surprises, so do not get too complacent. In the past these cycles have been bad for gold so continue to move stops up and take profits there.Continue reading