FOR MONDAY: (1/15) The trade likes these trending situations and the computers eat them up and accelerate them. Between the good news for the euro and trending stocks, it’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Topping energy for gold and bottoming for the dollar by Sunday and then a reversal there until Jan. 24. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (1/15) Market very close to key pattern completion at 2793 but if 2805 comes out the extended target is up to 2828.25. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking. Market couldn’t fall today during the weakest cycle of the week. Open to seeing it come off on Sunday night but not sure it will mean much without a lot of news.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.
SHORT-TERM: (1/05) We think the market will cause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19th. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Topping and lower Sunday; retracing into Jan. 19.
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