Grain cycles weak a few more days

FOR TUESDAY: (1/09) Trade waiting on USDA report at the end of the week. Still, cycles are weak a few more days before short-covering starts. Cattle also seems in trouble for a few more days.

MARCH CHICAGO WHEAT (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/9) Patterns suggest a bounce to 433 and 424 has held. That still would allow 447 or higher to manifest if new weather threats come. We do not like to be short wheat with threatening weather and will continue to stay out of it. Much above 435 and you need to go long. Might see 449.50 or 457 if we have weather problems next week.
NEAR TERM: The 450 region is possible in January but concerned about end of the year meltdowns.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Jan. 9; higher into January 11.

S & P close to key target zone at 2732 but…

FOR FRIDAY: (1/05) S & P close to key target zone at 2732 but will anyone be around to trade on Friday with the Bomb-Cyclone even if they trade from their homes? Natural Gas prices at record highs are not great for inflation and commodity prices have risen strongly since the US raised rates so the deflation block may finally be lifting but what happens if the economy doesn’t really pick up? Cycles highs still due into Sunday and maybe Wednesday for some of these trending markets so there’s still inflation money left.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/05) No rest for the bulls as 2731.50 is only 6 points away. Computer patterns could allow a pullback to 2716 and then a new high to 2749.50. There is still time for this to happen and we will not top-pick a bull. NQ has room to 6700 and DOW futures have closed over 25000 so what’s there to worry about. We could easily see profit-taking set in Friday as New Yorkers head for their bomb-shelters if they make it in. Let’s pray for no power outages as they could be life-threatening. The next pullback could be 70 points but that would look like nothing and it may happen from 2749.50.
SHORT-TERM: (1/2) Inclined to think that the trade will buy the market Jan. 2-5. It does then seem like a 3-week correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2. Now we have the Jan. 19 debt ceiling to deal with or will they kick it down the road again?
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Higher into Jan 5 and 7; lower into Jan. 12; lower into Jan. 19.

Cattle lower into Monday, maybe Wednesday

FOR FRIDAY: Our cycle work has grains and cattle turning lower into Monday or even Wednesday of next week. Pray for the East coast with their latest storm. Too much suffering these past few winters for them. All of this will drive energy costs up which may eventually help farmers next summer.

MARCH SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (1/05) Bearish weather has turned in SA and if you want to get short beans you may need to chase. Ideal pattern at 974 is worth waiting for but forecasts will have to turn bullish. Rallies are likely to stall at 974 where we get daily chart retracement targets but a flush down to 938 is very likely. Daily chart pattern projects 889 but we can’t wrap our head around that happening for now. Given that wheat patterns look like new highs are coming, we will assume that beans will still hold up and will confirm but under pressure at least into Monday.
OVERALL: Daily chart pattern projects 889 but we can’t wrap our head around that happening for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Lower into Jan. 8-9; higher into January 11.

Terrorism cycles still strong through next week

FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We have a larger big picture guide for the next week. Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading

Grain cycles are at odds next week

FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading

Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position

FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Our staff will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading

Higher grains much of next week after Tuesday

FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading

Patterns suggest a 3-wave rally to S&P 2690.75 or 2692 max.

FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sell the fact of the tax bill or the S & P near 2700. On top of it we’re dealing with people heading for the exits and year-end position squaring. Usually you get a lot of congestion going into the end of the year but sometimes some big moves if unwinding is going to happen. Sometimes we like to position trade but often on Dec. 26 there’s some bizarre move in thin conditions that no stop can handle– and that’s why we’re probably going to do very few short day-trades or 2-day trades the rest of the year based on morning conditions. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.Continue reading

Cycles the week after Christmas looks mostly lower

FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.

JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/21) We noted key resistance at 960-1 for today but we’re reluctant to sell such oversold conditions and a surprise bounce to 970 wouldn’t be shocking. Key support at an Andrew’s Midline has held and much deeper and a fall to 920 could develop eventually but we’re skeptical. We should see 946 and 943 easily but aren’t willing to sell until maybe Thursday if we have better levels and then we’re dealing with holiday nonsense.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Dec 21; higher Dec. 26.

Patterns suggest next push up should go to S&P 2706.75

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/20) As we move into the holidays, we always worry about trading as patterns don’t come in or they take a long time to come in. Action can be erratic and weird and we wonder if anyone is really trading. In the end we have to wind down from positions unless we’re ready to hold a while with a big stop. We do see year-end profit-taking for stocks Dec. 26-29 and fund position squaring. Always tricky. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.Continue reading