FOR FRIDAY: (1/19) We have very little to add from the morning report, as everyone is waiting on the budget ceiling, and markets are close to breaking down but good news and they will go to upper targets that haven’t come in like 1348 on gold or 2820 on the S & P or 8964 or 8936 on the dollar. If there’s no agreement by late Friday, then all craziness will happen on Sunday night and it won’t be very tradable.

Government is good to at waiting to the last minute but we do sense they will come up with something before the markets’ up on Sunday night but who wants to gamble on these gaps? At publication, it appears that the House will pass but that the Senate will not.

FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Basically, the market remains invincible although Bitcoin is starting to live up to its worry model. Starting to believe more in the dollar–and if Congress comes through they will confirm our cycles and punch through 9100, and that will confirm the break on gold needed to 1292. Markets still in a holding pattern and even the double-top on stocks isn’t as strong as a new high.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (1/18) Sucker-punch day and the move to 2809 should easily generate 2820 next. Patterns are projecting 2856 but we’re not quite ready to embrace that. Proportions for a double-top don’t quite look right so a quick push up to 2818-20 is more likely to happen. Market may have a dip near the open on Thursday but have to assume it will continue on its merry way higher. The budget deficit is the only albatross out there hanging on the market and it hasn’t been a huge game changer. The feeling is that Congress will pass a one-month budget and kick the can down the road to have more time to iron things out.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) While it looks like we got the post-3-day weekend reversal for stocks, not confirmed yet for gold and the dollar or crude although they are stalling. We do have the budget deficit and Bitcoin falling out of bed on Asian crackdowns on Bitcoin action. Cycles remain a bit volatile still but given buy energy for stocks we wouldn’t be shocked to get a rubber band bounce by the morning.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/17) Our day-trade update sold 2806 and took nice profits but had suggested that the market needed to go to key MA support near 2770. Are we starting the 70-point pullback? A sale near 2800 was a natural think to do and cycle had pointed lower this week but we’re so jaded on expecting pullbacks. Daily chart patterns point to 2692 if acceleration now happens through 2665. Have seen so many suck punches that even if want to sell we need to wait for a 62% retracement up toward 2793.
NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up.
SHORT-TERM: (1/15) We think the market will pause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It then seems like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) Our cycle and pattern work shows major completions on Monday but without a key trigger and reversal, we can’t fight these trending situations that funds are eating up. It’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (1/16) The S & P is closer to 2800 but the parabolic rise of the market continues to be astounding and latest projection of 2983 originally might have come in toward June but seems like it could happen well before then. If we get a 70-point pullback, and some cycles would allow it, it may not mean much and bears should stop trying to top pick because bull markets make fools out of top-pickers. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing into Jan. 19.

FOR MONDAY: (1/15) The trade likes these trending situations and the computers eat them up and accelerate them. Between the good news for the euro and trending stocks, it’s easy just to throw money at them and make money. Long weekends can reverse situations. Topping energy for gold and bottoming for the dollar by Sunday and then a reversal there until Jan. 24. Stocks should stall at 2800 and get jitters before the budget ceiling. Starting to run out of time for the exuberance cycles but S & P projecting 2980 on the SP, and we originally thought that might take until June but easily will come in sooner.

MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S & P ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY: (1/15) Market very close to key pattern completion at 2793 but if 2805 comes out the extended target is up to 2828.25. There’s a five-count complete from the Chinese rumor fall but not sure we can count on a 70-point pullback. Much above 2800 and the market is projecting 2989 on the daily chart. Greed has not restraints. No point in top-picking. Market couldn’t fall today during the weakest cycle of the week. Open to seeing it come off on Sunday night but not sure it will mean much without a lot of news.

NEAR TERM: Patterns suggest the need for 70-100 point pullback and that could start soon but it will be inconsequential with such a strong start to the year. The most bullish pattern would allow only a 30-point pullback and then a 100+plus point move up. We exited with nice profits on our ETF position.

SHORT-TERM: (1/05) We think the market will cause near 2800 and at least congest sideways with some cycles suggesting a pullback into Jan. 19th. Not sure what will happen but we do have the debt ceiling coming up again for Jan. 19. It does then seem like a correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.

CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Topping and lower Sunday; retracing into Jan. 19.