FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We have a larger big picture guide for the next week. Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading
Grain cycles are at odds next week
FOR TUESDAY: (12/26) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading
Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position
FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) Very difficult to go into the weekend with a position, as there are often reversals with these holidays and conditions are thin and exaggerated. Three-day weekends are notorious for reversals and we always worry about weekend terrorism over Christmas, and those cycles are likely still through next week. Our staff will advise Tuesday about plays next week but if we get a bunch of gaps and no completed patterns, then it will be difficult to play.Continue reading
Higher grains much of next week after Tuesday
FOR FRIDAY: (12/22) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.Continue reading
Patterns suggest a 3-wave rally to S&P 2690.75 or 2692 max.
FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sell the fact of the tax bill or the S & P near 2700. On top of it we’re dealing with people heading for the exits and year-end position squaring. Usually you get a lot of congestion going into the end of the year but sometimes some big moves if unwinding is going to happen. Sometimes we like to position trade but often on Dec. 26 there’s some bizarre move in thin conditions that no stop can handle– and that’s why we’re probably going to do very few short day-trades or 2-day trades the rest of the year based on morning conditions. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.Continue reading
Cycles the week after Christmas looks mostly lower
FOR THURSDAY: (12/21) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/21) We noted key resistance at 960-1 for today but we’re reluctant to sell such oversold conditions and a surprise bounce to 970 wouldn’t be shocking. Key support at an Andrew’s Midline has held and much deeper and a fall to 920 could develop eventually but we’re skeptical. We should see 946 and 943 easily but aren’t willing to sell until maybe Thursday if we have better levels and then we’re dealing with holiday nonsense.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Generally lower into Dec 21; higher Dec. 26.
Patterns suggest next push up should go to S&P 2706.75
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/20) As we move into the holidays, we always worry about trading as patterns don’t come in or they take a long time to come in. Action can be erratic and weird and we wonder if anyone is really trading. In the end we have to wind down from positions unless we’re ready to hold a while with a big stop. We do see year-end profit-taking for stocks Dec. 26-29 and fund position squaring. Always tricky. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.Continue reading
Still favoring shorts
FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/20) We looked closely at cycles and they are rather complicated and intense and we would rather trade off of patterns. We do still favor shorts. Beans are rather oversold and wheat is the clearest sale if you need to do something. We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions in a few days.Continue reading
Still favor S&P 2732-40 by Jan. 5
FOR TUESDAY: (12/19) We always worry about people heading for the exits and expect them to clear out by Wednesday. We do see year-end profit-taking for stocks Dec. 26-29 and fund position squaring. Always tricky. We have completed Part 1 of our Yearly Forecast issue of Fortucast and it’s available. Working on covering Bitcoin futures but may take a month to really get a handle on it.
MARCH E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.
S & P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (12/19) Almost at 2700. Support at 2688.50 and 2682.75. Resistance at 2712. Stocks failed to go down during the more difficult cycle of the week and not sure what will stop this market. Taxaphoria likely to continue but what happens when it passes—of course sell the fact which is why we have a sell-off next week into the end of the year.
We still favor 2732-40 by Jan. 5. The trade is pricing in a tax bill passage before Christmas and an easy resolution to the budget ceiling extension but cycles aren’t that promising for it happening so we wonder if the market will turn lower the week of Dec. 26 if either of those fail to happen.
In the end, bears will be frustrated top-picking and what are we going to get in January anyway: 70 or 110 points?
SHORT-TERM: (12/15) We looked closely at patterns and cycles and we’re still expecting 2 more highs to 2705 and 2732-40 before a dip to 2595-2600. Given that the market should hold up into Jan. 5, upper targets of 2732 and 2740 are very possible and likely. The week of Dec. 26-29 looks like year-end profit taking but at most that might be 70 points and the trade would recover it Jan. 2-5. It does then seem like a 3-week correction into Jan. 24-25 is likely with a recovery into Feb. 2.
CYCLE SYNTHESIS: Retracing Tuesday, higher into Friday; lower Dec. 26-29; higher into Jan 5 and 7.
Will wind down positions
FOR TUESDAY: (12/19) We always worry about people heading for the exits and conditions turning thin this week. The later in the week it gets, the more difficult it will get to keep stops in place or deal with huge orders that can move the market wildly. We tend not to trade much during the holidays and will wind down positions in a few days.
JAN. SOYBEANS (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (12/19) Market got close to key support at 956.50 and not sure what to do because we never got decent rally. Market is really oversold and might reach 970-2 if we are lucky but it’s hard to sell an oversold condition. Key support at an Andrew’s Midline has held and much deeper and a fall to 920 could develop but we’re skeptical.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Monday/Tuesday; lower Dec. 20-22; higher Dec. 26.