Wednesday looks lower

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/18) Looking like we missed shorts, as Wednesday looks lower but the next few days could get volatile if we get any unexpected events. Not sure what to do given incomplete upward patterns so we’ll wait for the morning.Continue reading

Bias toward higher dollars until Wednesday

FOR TUESDAY: (10/17) The news that Jack Taylor might be the next Fed chairman upset the dollar, bond and gold markets near the close took away some of our profits. We have a bias toward higher dollars now until Wednesday and lower metals in general and except for another Communist Celebration day for North Korea on Thursday, we might not have any worries. Still, cycles are dicey until Nov. 3 and the chances of world tensions rising has to be kept in the back of one’s mind.Continue reading

Cycles get more intense the next few weeks

FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes that started Friday that will continue into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway. New saber-rattling with Iran is of course something else we don’t need on top of North Korea flak. Cycles get more intense the next few weeks for confrontation. We also ran two new cycles for Wednesday/Thursday and they’re giving us more information on the coming week.Continue reading

Not sure if harvest pressure will mean much

FOR MONDAY: (10/16) Not sure if harvest pressure will mean much but markets are oversold for grains but still look higher a few more days. Key numbers of 1007 for Nov. beans and 444 for Dec. Chicago wheat are close and corn will go for the ride. We should be selling these rallies on wheat and be patient with beans but will have to be more aggressive by Tuesday in terms of selling. New research on cattle suggests lower prices into Thursday now and hogs may hold up into then.Continue reading

Stock market is tiring

FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Stock market is tiring and there are a number of larger cycle changes happening starting Friday and into the coming weeks that may give this market pause to go much higher. We’re not into top-picking stocks but will be alert. Not sure people want to go home long again before North Korea red letter day on Oct. 18. We found a bunch of minor cycle inversions and end of the week profit-taking may set in for sideways congestion anyway.Continue reading

Grains likely to consolidate on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (10/13) Thinking the trade will consolidate gains in beans and corn on Friday but we still see higher prices early next week. Cattle look lower on Friday and a dominant cycle into Oct. 26 may push the market lower the rest of the month, and we probably will stick with shorts. Hogs should be higher one more day and we will evaluate them later.Continue reading

Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar

FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Latest projection on N. Korea missile launches is Oct. 18 in celebration of a Communist Party event. That may give another week breather in the tensions. Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading

Corn, wheat very oversold

FOR THURSDAY: (10/12): Trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles the next few days are more bearish than bullish but corn and wheat are very oversold and hit key support patterns, so we have to assume they buy the news on Thursday and retrace Friday and then be higher early next week. Grains are too oversold to chase at current levels. Cattle looks lower the next few days and hogs still should recover.Continue reading

Focus on cycle lows into Monday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Not sure FOMC minutes will mean much but they always cause the computer Algos to trigger. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading