FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Latest projection on N. Korea missile launches is Oct. 18 in celebration of a Communist Party event. That may give another week breather in the tensions. Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading
Corn, wheat very oversold
FOR THURSDAY: (10/12): Trade waiting on the USDA report on Thursday. Cycles the next few days are more bearish than bullish but corn and wheat are very oversold and hit key support patterns, so we have to assume they buy the news on Thursday and retrace Friday and then be higher early next week. Grains are too oversold to chase at current levels. Cattle looks lower the next few days and hogs still should recover.Continue reading
Focus on cycle lows into Monday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11) Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Not sure FOMC minutes will mean much but they always cause the computer Algos to trigger. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.Continue reading
Meats still looking strong
FOR WEDNESDAY: (10/11): Trade waiting on the USDA report Thursday. Could see quiet ranges but should see another day up in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading
S&P due for 30-point pullback
FOR TUESDAY: (10/10) Reversals in the dollar and metals remind us that we have to be alert for something on the S & P but it may not be Tuesday because upside pattern was not completed there to 2562 and NQ isn’t done either. That means long stocks today and watching for pattern completions. As noted below, a 30-point pullback on the S & P is all that we can count on this week but open to surprises given that gold needs to go to 1325 and silver to 1770 and oil is up this week. Still waiting for the apocalypse with North Korea and hopefully God has better plans that will cause less suffering.Continue reading
Could see quiet ranges for grains
FOR TUESDAY: (10/10): Trade waiting on crop conditions after the Columbus Day holiday. Grains came off a bit. Not too much to add to this morning’s comments. Could see quiet ranges but should see a 2-day recovery in hogs and cattle and congestion higher for beans.Continue reading
Surprised oil futures stayed near their lows
FOR MONDAY: (10/9) Feels like another waiting for apocalypse weekend with Trump talking about the calm before the storm and N. Korea liking to launch rockets before on their National Holiday on Tuesday. Hurricane Nate may only be Category 1 but headed for the Gulf region. Surprised that oil futures stayed near their lows. Chances are nothing will happen and the stock market will continue on its merry way higher.Continue reading
Grains look lower Sunday, may bounce Monday
FOR MONDAY: (10/9): Grains look lower Sunday but may bounce on Monday. Thinking a lot of congestive action before Thursdays USDA report. Some cycles have an upward bias next week so if grains can’t meltdown quickly from harvest pressure on Monday, we’ll want to be out of shorts. Cattle look higher a few more days and hogs are a buy on dips based on cycles.Continue reading
Stocks overbought, ripe for profit-taking
FOR FRIDAY: (10/6) Another employment report day. Market is rather overbought and end of the week profit-taking could sneak in if there are any surprises. The NFP number has been weaker with the lost jobs in Florida and Houston. Market doesn’t seem to care. Upper target on the S & P toward 2562 now.Continue reading
Waiting for volatile grain cycle to pass
FOR FRIDAY: (10/6) There are very volatile cycles that dominate the next few days. Two years ago when we saw them, they created cycle high for grains and lows for cattle. Going into harvest pressure and one would think that the market would be lower. We’re going to wait for this cycle to get out of the way.Continue reading