FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Latest projection on N. Korea missile launches is Oct. 18 in celebration of a Communist Party event. That may give another week breather in the tensions. Still need some dire headline if the funds are to give up on their greed for stocks but still waiting for slightly higher numbers—but they don’t have to come in. Focus on cycle lows into Monday for the dollar and highs for metals and energy, and that means that stocks should give it up soon so hard to be long stocks.
DEC. E-MINI S & P 500
S & P ANALYSIS FOR THURSDAY: (10/12) Not much to add to yesterday with very small ranges. Cyclical tensions are mounting but may not break the camel’s back until next week. Market failed to break on Wednesday which was one of the better days of the week. We could see sickly upward energy that continues to push toward 2560-2 if no trigger comes out. Until 2538 come out, we are just waiting. The most bullish pattern would allow a 20-point congestion triangle between 2540-2560 and then new highs.
Natural day-trade resistance will again be the 2554-5 region with a break needed below 2538 to get the market doing something bigger. Given that funds use cheap money to buy stocks no matter what’s happening in the world, we’re wondering if the projection on the weekly chart to 2477 has a chance without North Korea firing 30 missiles, which seems to be in the works for Oct. 18 in another show of strength. .
Watch NQ 6122 for a pattern completion–and there is money to be made on the upside there for the brave.
Without a break of 2538, there’s no reason to expect this market to fall apart. We remain concerned about fear cycles increasing and North Korea and the market could easily fall at some point later in the week if news algos seem dire but for now we have to trade off of patterns and the trend.
NEAR TERM: Thinking that the market will start coming off once 2562 comes and be in trouble until about Nov. 6. I suspect we’ll have to wait until the last minute for sales.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher Thursday.
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