Stocks look higher; dollar, metals, oil lower lower

FOR TUESDAY: (7/11) Trade waiting on Yellen testimony on Wednesday but not expecting much shocking news. Stocks look higher and metals lower and oil lower and dollar lower a few days in congestive downward action.

SEPT. E-MINI S & P 500
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Wait for morning comments.

S&P ANALYSIS FOR TUESDAY: (7/11)The most likely movement up this week is toward at least 2440 if not 2450 in the more bullish case. S & P couldn’t get through 2430 and will probably hold 2420 overnight. Market may be higher overnight and sideway on Tuesday. Still we have a bias toward higher and slosh prices.

WEEKLY CHART: We ran cycles through August and they are mixed. We are not thinking that the market will fall apart dramatically in July, but we doubt that there’s enough time and room for 2520 to come in this summer before things get complicated August-October. The market does seem like it will hold up into July 5, retrace into mid-July and probably hold up into July 25. Seeing lots of congestive action and it may not fall apart until after August 5.

CYCLES OVERVIEW: Bottoming/recovering Tuesday; sideways to lower Wednesday; higher Thursday; sideways Friday.

Corn needs at least one more high to 424-425

FOR TUESDAY: (7/11) Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. We watch patterns to keep us out of trouble and corn needs at least one more high to 424-5 on Dec. and beans to 1092-6. Wheat might get dragged to 590-600 and has the worst fundamentals. Cattle not happy with higher feed prices for now.Continue reading

Sunday could be explosive with a key cycles hitting

FOR MONDAY: (7/10) Could be an explosive Sunday with a key cycles hitting. Could trigger earthquake activity or just fall-out from G-20 as not sure Trump will hold his tongue well with Merkel and others by the time the weekend is over. Still, stock market setting up another sucker punch to the upside but maybe not too much.Continue reading

Cycles look lower into Monday

FOR MONDAY: (7/10) Trade waiting on USDA report for Wednesday but may not mean much if weather shifts. Usually by the 2nd week of July you have to be short corn. Beans hit minimum weekly chart target so we have to get some sold. Cycles look lower into Monday but then volatile on Tuesday and probably a recovery. Concerned about a wash-out and wheat had issued a sell signal already earlier in the week. Have to get some positions on market on open in case we have a waterfall day.Continue reading

Seeing higher bonds, lower gold Friday

(7/7) Employment report is always one of the more volatile events of the month and the surprise may be higher than expected based on positive dollar cycles and yet stocks look lower. Seeing higher bonds and lower gold on Friday.Continue reading

Use strength to get into Nov. bean puts, Dec. corn puts

FOR FRIDAY: (7/7) Wheat has been leading the market higher and hit a sell signal yesterday and the trade continued liquidation today. Wheat has pulled the corn and beans up and we have to wonder if it will now pull the grains lower and it is a big yellow flag. Beans didn’t allow us to get filled but we still feel better buying beans. You may want to lighten up on some of your corn if you are nervous and we suggest being out of ½ of longs by the close of Friday. Continue to use strength to get into Nov. bean puts and Dec. corn puts.Continue reading

Stocks cycles look lower

FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) Trade waiting on the employment report on Friday. Cycles for stocks look lower and higher for the dollar and higher for T-notes and lower for gold. We need to position ourselves if we are going to take a stand into the report.Continue reading

Still seeing higher grain prices into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (7/6) The weekly crop condition report suggests a dip for corn and higher bean prices and wheat is on fire—literally. We hate weather markets but can see buying corn if we can buy near 400 and doubt we’ll get a retest of 980 to buy beans but will try. Still seeing higher prices into Friday but then concerned about next week. Feeders in trouble on Thursday and hogs still higher for a few more days.Continue reading

Stocks look higher on Tuesday/Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/5) Post-holiday volatility is always a bit crazy and even if we have idea of what’s going to happen we often have to let the dust settle with surprises. Stocks look higher on Tuesday/Wednesday but then lower into the employment report. Gold may have a 1-day bounce but in trouble the rest of the week and the dollar looks higher into Friday before the G-10 meeting.

NOTE: The new issue of Financial Visions into the future Summer Sneak Preview issue is out with a special long-term article and what we see for the world economy going into a crisis period into 2019-2020. Summer sale subscription available for 395.00 for 1 year with special price until July 5.Continue reading

Cattle look higher on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/5) We dread the 4th of July weekend. Weather going in is bullish and some cycles point higher into Friday but usually if you get something on by July 4th you do well in the long run. Buy Dec. 400 puts or Nov. 950 puts may be one way to play it and withstand the craziness. Cattle look higher on Wednesday and hogs also higher into Friday so not sure there’s any point in getting too bearish anything. Markets don’t reopen until Wednesday at 8:30 am and that’s when our next report will be.Continue reading