FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) Trade waiting on ECB for Thursday and then to FOMC for July 26. Markets will get more sluggish as we get closer to these next fulcrum points. Still nice and slow steady trading in places. Cycles are looking friendly for Thursday and remain bid for stocks going into the weekend.Continue reading
Look to take profits on long grains by morning
FOR THURSDAY: (7/20) We should see grains recover into the close of the night session but then they look like they turn lower into Friday. Hard to get away with longs in late July and they often sell the bad weather—which is very real. We would take profits on grain longs by the morning and may get short for a few days in case we get a meltdown.Continue reading
Trade waiting on ECB onThursday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) Trade waiting on ECB for Thursday and then to FOMC for July 26. Markets will get more sluggish as we get closer to these next fulcrum points. Still nice and slow steady trading in places.Continue reading
e have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday
FOR WEDNESDAY: (7/19) We hate trading grain weather markets and should give it up and now that computerized funds have taken over it’s more challenging. We have a bias for a recovery on Wednesday but any new sneezes in the wrong direction from the weather people and we could be wrong. Latest forecast adds more heat and dryness but could change at 6 am. Technically we had a grain breakdown last week for corn and wheat. This week’s recovery is a bounce and the market is almost always down the last week of July so I expect that next break will come then.Continue reading
Cycles very volatile amid thin volume
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Not expecting a lot of action this week. Reports are not that significant and summer vacations dominate. We’ll continue to go with short dollars and long gold over the next week. Cycles are very volatile and any surprises overnight could be exaggerated in thin volume.Continue reading
Cattle cycles very volatile, seasonals friendly
FOR TUESDAY: (7/18) Never quite sure how they will react to the crop reports but the market could stay bid into Thursday if there’s no major damage on Monday or Tuesday. Cattle cycles are very volatile but seasonals are on its side here. Hogs look mixed.Continue reading
Summer Mondays can have tight ranges
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Summer Mondays can just have tight ranges. Cycles are unusually volatile into Tuesday. We’re concerned about the earthquakes at Yellowstone turning into a large volcanic eruption and there’s one cycle that could cause something in the next few days. It would be a monumental event bigger than Mt. St. Helens. It’s definitely brewing for the summer sometime. Still, without a trigger, stocks should continue higher even if we get a 1-day pullback. Dollar broke key numbers and should break to 9444 now.Continue reading
Grains could be higher Sunday into early Monday
FOR MONDAY: (7/17) Lately Sundays and Mondays have had strong upward moves when weather disappoints or turns more negative. We think the market could be higher on Sunday into early Monday but then give back gain on Monday, as new selling will emerge if we get that kind of gap. The pollination threat is out there if the weather doesn’t change and that should create a head-and-shoulders top for corn if we’re patient.Continue reading
Willing to sell gold
FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Not expecting much with a summer Friday where everyone has left for the beach early and then they come back later on Monday. Willing to be short gold but not seeing much else for Friday.
OVERALL: More Yellen testimony and the 2nd day does not mean much. World stocks remain friendly and thoughts are for 2 rate hikes next year and dovish energy is supportive for the world. Would like to see the dollar make a slight new low and buying the dollar is somewhat countertrendish.
Energy is still expansive for stocks and bad news out of Washington doesn’t seem to rattle the market, as greed knows no bounds. Still room to buy T-notes and sell metals with next key target into July 18. We still would like to see lower pattern come in on the dollar to 9510 but it doesn’t have to.Continue reading
Grains look sharply lower Monday night
FOR FRIDAY: (7/14) Collapses in the grains usually can lead to cascading waterfall events as the trade heads for the exits. Still won’t rule out a head-and-shoulders bounce into Monday so chasing has to be followed by quick profits. We had suggested puts on strength and futures are crazy and will still be so. We had put out some early sales on beans and if we’re to get into corn it may be from bounce later. These markets don’t let one in easily when they fall apart. The market could congest before the weekend and be higher on Sunday into early Monday if the pollination scare happens but then looks sharply lower on Monday night after the crop report.Continue reading