Grains higher on Monday

FOR MONDAY: (5/22) Corn futures closed higher for the day and for the fourth straight week as rain and cold weather may impede the last of this year’s planting and possibly cause some fields to be replanted. Soybeans finished higher for the day but lower for the week. Investors are watching action in Brasilia, Brazil’s capitol, where President Michel Temer is being investigated for bribery. The Real on Friday recovered about half of what it lost yesterday when the allegations were first reported. Wheat had big daily gains with hard red winter wheat recovering nearly all that it lost earlier this week. Severe storms and flash flooding are expected in the plains today and in the Midwest tomorrow, where winter wheat needs dry conditions.

We can see grains higher on Monday if they react to the weather but that may be higher for the week so if you’re short, you have watch stops.

Topping action: tread carefully

FOR FRIDAY: (5/19) We‘ve seen enough of these sucker punches to know that we had to be careful–and low and behold, it came and delivered. Next week’s James Comey hearing is certainly setting up as a ‘grab yr popcorn’ moment with Democrats lining up for their 5 minutes of fame to ask the question that ‘proves’ Trump deserves impeachment. However, it appears there is no need for the hearing as Mr. Comey already confirmed – under oath – that “he has not been pressured to close an investigation for political purposes.” Testifying under oath in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on May 3rd, Comey states that he has not been pressured to close an investigation for political purposes, “not in my experience.”

So where is the truth? The press is selling copy by making up stories with evidence and there is certainly a witch hunt out there and it is not good for the economy or for getting business done and we’re all sick of it. Cycles suggest it will get much worse in July and August so get your popcorn warm ready.

We originally had a dollar high for Friday and gold low and we will assume that will continue. Still, the Times or WaPo will come up with something else to sell more copy and CNN will continue to rant. Will we ever have truth or a government interested in the people rather than battling out in the arena?

Topping action is never easy and you can see what happens when you chase so will tread carefully.

Cycle lows for grains dominate next few days

FOR FRIDAY: (5/19) Cycle lows for grains dominate the next few days and not sure the market can turn up until after May 25. We would continue to favor shorts until then. Short-covering on cattle may continue one more day but the market will probably stay under pressure through next week, and overall seasonals are lower into June.Continue reading

Stocks look higher into end of week

FOR TUESDAY: (5/16) Well, stocks survived a long-range missile test by North Korean over the weekend and just really cared about another false promise from OPEC. We’re not seeing this market run out of steam until the end of the week so we assume that it will go higher. Our cycle work is at odds with technicals this week. We often don’t pay much attention to Mondays as they are often low-volume. We have to see if the minor breakouts on silver and the Euro continue and if not our original work will be on schedule. We expect at least a retrace of Monday’s profits for most of these markets.Continue reading

Still have to continue to sell rallies in grains

FOR TUESDAY: (5/16) We have mixed cycles for grains the next few days and a low-confidence forecast. We have to take profits on short wheat with cold weather moving into Colorado and that may spook the market. It also may cause short-covering on cattle but may not be drastic enough to impact anything further East. Still have to continue to sell rallies in grains.Continue reading

Metals look lower on Friday

FOR FRIDAY: (5/12) More reports on Friday and lately Fridays have been friendly but the 29-day cycle is weak by 9-10 am and that may lead to a weekend profit-taking bout. Metals also look lower on Friday and it may be a dull pre-weekend affair.Continue reading

Grain cycles looking lower Friday, much of next week

FOR FRIDAY: (5/12) Cycles seem lower still for grains on Friday and probably much of next week. If weather forecasts stay warm and dry, the market will probably tank next week so Friday may be the last chance to get on new grain shorts or hedges for the short-term. Cattle showing signs of bottoming but we’ll be patient and hogs probably lower to sideways on Friday.Continue reading

Favor stocks bouncing on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) We have a bias toward stocks bouncing on Thursday and would love to buy a pattern completion but still looking for 40 ticks off the highs on NQ and not sure what will create that. The dollar looks higher all week and that doesn’t jive with a 2-day bounce for gold, which isn’t happening either. Luckily the news front is relatively clear compared to past weeks.Continue reading

Harvest pressure for wheat

FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) USDA report is out of the way and now it is matter if a flooding rain front pushing across the Midwest spooks traders. Given warm and dry in the 10 days, this last storm may not mean much. Can wheat really recover much given harvest pressure? While 9% of the crop is lost, there is still a lot of world wheat out there. Cattle cycles are weaker a few more days along with hogs but cattle is a bit overdone now.Continue reading

Favoring lower stocks on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/10) We have a bias toward lower stocks on Wednesday but we don’t think the move higher will be over until next week. The dollar looks higher all week and that doesn’t jive with a 2-day bounce for gold. Luckily the news front is relatively clear compared to past weeks.Continue reading