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FOR THURSDAY: (5/11) USDA report is out of the way and now it is matter if a flooding rain front pushing across the Midwest spooks traders. Given warm and dry in the 10 days, this last storm may not mean much. Can wheat really recover much given harvest pressure? While 9% of the crop is lost, there is still a lot of world wheat out there. Cattle cycles are weaker a few more days along with hogs but cattle is a bit overdone now.Continue reading

FOR WEDNESDAY: (5/10) Not sure the USDA report means anything in May and the bounces for beans and corn today were healthy short-covering. We still see weaker cycles overall this week and would use any rallies to continue to add shorts. Soybeans closed higher to recover yesterday’s losses amid reports of slow planting in the Midwest and the likelihood of more delays as storms move from the Rockies to the Atlantic this week. We’ll have some strategies in the morning based on overnight action but it’s likely to be short-covering.Continue reading

FOR TUESDAY: (5/9) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way at the report. If we get short-covering, it may allow new sales or reentries as key numbers were triggered on Monday for a sale on beans and won’t not take much to do so on corn. Cattle are due for a 1-day bounce but look weaker into Friday now and hogs look lower on Tuesday and are getting too strong to sell now.Continue reading

FOR MONDAY: (5/8) Grain cycles are weak the next few days and much of next week so it’s hard to imagine anything that would push them up in a crazy way. Cattle may find a bottom by Monday and recover and not sure they’re done. We’re doing a countertrend trade in hogs and will hold into Tuesday.Continue reading

FOR FRIDAY: (5/5) We exited long grains before the meltdown but didn’t reverse, as the market was too high off of the recent highs. We see weakness into early next week so there’s still time and room but will have to pick our spots carefully. Winter wheat futures posted double-digit losses on Thursday to wipe out nearly all of this week’s post-storm gains, as a crop tour forecast an average Kansas yield above the five-year average. The selling in wheat likely helped pull down corn and soybeans, but the latter two crops may have been pressured by forecasts for drier planting weather this weekend and next week. Flooding along rivers and streams in the Midwest will remain a concern for a few days. Despite the wheat yield forecasts, agronomists on the tour and elsewhere in the state said it will be a week or more before crop damage from the storm can assessed.