FOR THURSDAY: (4/27) Wednesday was very volatile and some of it was tied to economic saber-rattling with Canada and Mexico and a surprise limit-up move in cattle. Soybeans were lower amid talk that delays in corn planting could possibly shift some of those acres to soybeans. Winter wheat markets closed near unchanged while spring wheat had more gains as wintry weather slowed planting in the northern states. Usually we can get away selling grains on Thursday with beans the safest of the bunch, as weather is still ugly for corn.Continue reading
NQ highs in May still on target
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/26) Not much change to last night’s general comments. No key events pending except North Korea and Trump’s tax announcement but that’s in the market already and probably will be sold. Lots of Central Bank meetings by Thursday with Bank of Japan and the ECB. We think that the cycles favor a budget deficit resolution by late Friday night, which just may mean kicking the can down the road but the market is fine with that as long as stocks go higher. Dollar needs to go to 9800 and stocks had enough of a breakdown as seen in NQ that our projection for NQ highs in May is still on target.Continue reading
Willing to sell rallies on cattle
FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/26) Grains look higher at least one more day but then may run into trouble. Still, if rains are as bad as they predict in some areas, they may not go down much. Hogs still look higher into Monday and we’re still willing to sell rallies on cattle.Continue reading
Dollar needs to go to 9800
FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Lots of Central Bank meetings by Thursday with Bank of Japan and the ECB. We think that the cycles favor a budget deficit resolution by late Friday night, which just may mean kicking the can down the road but the market is fine with that as long as stocks go higher. Dollar needs to go to 9800 and stocks had enough of a breakdown as seen in NQ that our projection for NQ highs in May is still on target.Continue reading
Wednesday could be a bounce day
FOR TUESDAY: (4/25) Plantings reports were bearish but not sure the market will go down that much and even if they do, we think Wednesday could be a bounce day. We still like the short side but have to make sure the trade does not get too upset about excessive rains in the 7-day forecast. If we get a bounce on feeders, look to sell. Hogs now should be up this week so buy pullbacks on Tuesday.Continue reading
Cycles still point towards mild recovery in stocks
FOR MONDAY: (4/24) Stocks ended softer ahead of the weekend and will turn their attention to next week’s budget talks and government funding deadline on Friday. Cycles still point towards a mild recovery in stocks and continued rebound in the dollar. Gold should be backing off after Friday’s surprise recovery. Crude may be overdone on the downside and we may adjust our cover target for our short position.Continue reading
Cattle looking overdone
FOR MONDAY: (4/24) We covered our grain shorts on Friday in corn and beans. Cycles should allow for a minor recovery with planting progress likely still below average. Cattle looking overdone and may present a sale up towards 1.18, but clearly a top pick as we move into May. Missed our hog sale on Friday’s by 15 ticks and have already fallen to our target. Will re-evaluate Monday.Continue reading
Crude looks lower into Monday
FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We’re still a bit in paralysis mode and expecting that people will want to be flat going into the weekend but many are thinking that any North Korean nuclear test won’t happen until early May and ships heading for that area may take a week to get there. We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower so if we trade technically and with cycles, we have to go that way.Continue reading
Seasonals, weather weigh on grains
FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Still, seasonals are against this market and there’s nothing in the news but a concerns about fewer corn plantings. Thirty-day outlook for rains are normal so is there anything to save corn?Continue reading
Dollar looks higher into Sunday/Monday
FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower. Stocks should recover from a lower open on Thursday and should be a day-trade long. Still, world aggression and violence cycles are strong into Tuesday and we remain concerned about trigger-happy generals reacting to North Korea, which may not be ready for a nuclear test until May based on some reports. Hard to assume that gold will go up and the dollar lower if violence breaks out. With our new cycle work, we’ll go with those bets rather than speculation about the world.Continue reading