Crude looks lower into Monday

FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We’re still a bit in paralysis mode and expecting that people will want to be flat going into the weekend but many are thinking that any North Korean nuclear test won’t happen until early May and ships heading for that area may take a week to get there. We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower so if we trade technically and with cycles, we have to go that way.Continue reading

Seasonals, weather weigh on grains

FOR FRIDAY: (4/21) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Still, seasonals are against this market and there’s nothing in the news but a concerns about fewer corn plantings. Thirty-day outlook for rains are normal so is there anything to save corn?Continue reading

Dollar looks higher into Sunday/Monday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We ran cycles into Sunday/Monday and the dollar looks higher now and gold and silver lower and crude lower. Stocks should recover from a lower open on Thursday and should be a day-trade long. Still, world aggression and violence cycles are strong into Tuesday and we remain concerned about trigger-happy generals reacting to North Korea, which may not be ready for a nuclear test until May based on some reports. Hard to assume that gold will go up and the dollar lower if violence breaks out. With our new cycle work, we’ll go with those bets rather than speculation about the world.Continue reading

Cattle looks lower on Thursday

FOR THURSDAY: (4/20) We feel good being short grains into Friday but could get a bounce early next week if weather changes or the market fails to breakdown enough. Cattle looks lower on Thursday but if no break happens, we still might get new highs on Friday. Hogs had a technical breakdown and weak cycles are into Monday, and we should be selling rallies if we can get.Continue reading

Whippy action likely to continue

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) Whippy action on Tuesday with the UK call for June 8 elections causing a lot of unwindings in currency positions, as short pounds were suddenly not the place to be. Whippy action likely to continue for a week based on cycles, more saber-rattling and war cycles with North Korea and the “forgotten” debt ceiling crisis that has a deadline for April 28. Will be hard to put in too many orders overnight but we have to on some level.Continue reading

Cattle still could be up on Wednesday

FOR WEDNESDAY: (4/19) We were wrong about grains turning around this week but Wednesday is often the safest day for them to go higher and they are a bit beat up and looks like minor 4th-wave bounces are due. Still, seasonals often turn down in late April and we probably were too optimistic. Not panicking yet but grains are in trouble. Cattle still could be up on Wednesday and we’ll buy oversold conditions for hogs.Continue reading

Dollar higher into Thursday

FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) While the markets went to the edges in terms of bounce and retracement, the writing on the wall suggests higher dollars into Thursday and it won’t take much to pull stocks up. Basically the market is rebalancing last week’s conditions and waiting on news. Our sense is that cycles into Friday-Tuesday of next week support battle conditions and guns will go off. We don’t see nuclear war but cycles are hitting the US and Trump very exactly that he will be aggressive. I suspect even though we want to dump our positions from last week, we may have to get back into them on Thursday.Continue reading

Grain cycles supportive into Thursday

FOR TUESDAY: (4/18) We looked at cycles for grains into Thursday and they seem supportive so a light buy is favored. Cattle cook missed and hogs higher now into Thursday. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first. The dollar may recover into Wednesday from oversold conditions.Continue reading

Fear cycles still strong into Tuesday

FOR MONDAY: (4/17) Markets are closed on Friday but economic cycles continue to come out. Fear cycles are still strong into Tuesday so we suspect that whatever happens over the weekend, it won’t be roses and lollypops. Sometimes extreme moves on Sunday night have no place to go by early Monday and if we get huge gaps on Sunday, you have to expect that is possible. Still, the market may be in trouble into Tuesday and maybe much of next week. We’ll put out an update on Sunday night if geo-political bombings and war cycles create too much potential energy but hopefully we can enjoy our holiday weekend and you can also. Three-day weekends are difficult to trade under normal circumstances so be careful out there.Continue reading

Looking to add more grains on pullbacks on Sunday night

FOR MONDAY: (4/17 no change) We looked at cycles next week and they look friendly for grains and cattle but lower for hogs. We’ll probably want to add more grain on pullbacks on Sunday night. Not sure if the geopolitical tensions will impact these markets much. Crude looks lower next week although any nasty surprises could push it up to 5500 first.Continue reading