FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) A string of inside days didn’t reveal much. We continue to suggest cycle highs for gold on Thursday and cycle lows for the dollar and stocks, and how much they fall will be key. Month-end position squaring by funds will hit by Friday and be a factor. We do want to sell gold and silver in case they come off sharply for the end of the month.Continue reading
Grain patterns suggest one more low
FOR THURSDAY: (3/30) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Will it happen on Friday at the report announcement? Starting to seem that way. Stats often have the market lower after the March acreage report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Dollar and crude are starting to recover, with the latter a positive for grains.Continue reading
Weak cycles for stocks
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Some markets are looking like they’re reversing but key numbers we discussed on Monday night have come in and now the weak cycles for stocks have to kick in the next few days to support all the positions we anticipate. We’ll wait for the morning to take new position. If we get weak retracements, then the market will start being more convincing for gold bugs and bears in the stock market.Continue reading
Hogs look almost done
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/29) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Unclear whether it will happen. Rallies were not very strong or meaningful on Tuesday. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.Continue reading
Gold may have a last buy setting up
FOR TUESDAY: (3/28) Continued 2-day retracement likely for all overdone markets and then new thrusts into Wednesday/Thursday. S & P patterns are fairly clear as are T-notes. We still like the short side of crude if we see a big enough bounce. Gold may have a last buy setting up but minimum target is in.Continue reading
Short-covering into USDA report
FOR TUESDAY: (3/28) Patterns on all the grains suggest one more low and then short-covering into the end of the week and the USDA report. Continue to take profits on shorts and scalpers can do a light long, and market does look higher after the report into early next week. Cattle may have 1-2 more days to fall and hogs look almost done.
JULY CORN (electronic ok)
TODAY’S COMMENTS: (3/28) We are out of short corn. We see short-covering this week and it continues into next week and in case it turns into something bigger, we’ll have a light long position in place. Key support at 350 and 343 next if bounces are week and we break down later in April.
SHORT-TERM (3/13) Daily stochastics have crossed over issuing a sell signal. Pullbacks could easily to go key weekly chart support at 350-1 and if that goes, 336. Daily chart patterns suggest 321 into late April and early May if South American exports weigh on the market. Weekly chart support for May corn is key at 346.50. Cycle lows dominate into March 26-27. Usually the weeks before the March 31 USDA report are choppy. The market does seem to recover into the USDA report into mid-April but the late winter and early spring trade is still boring. We’ve seen so many conflicting weather forecasts for the spring that we’re not sure what to think. Given worldwide abnormalities this winter, some growing areas are likely to get impacted this year and support higher prices. Our own weather work had seen dry prices in June. Some forecasts are calling for a colder summer than normal, which is not a supportive factor. The chance for higher prices in June is pretty strong and we can probably do a typical hedge or cash sale there. We’re watching mid-June for now.
CYCLES OVERVIEW: Higher into March 30-31.
Markets very volatile for the next few sessions
(3/27) With health care bill dead for now and perhaps moving to the Wall and border issue next, will the trade just ignore the failure? Cycles for stocks are still pretty weak next week and probably the following week so our guess is that things will get unnerved. Still, with just slight new pattern completions on a lot of markets, larger retracements need to happen. Markets are very volatile for the next few sessions so expect wild moves and unexpected news so be careful!Continue reading
Still not willing to bottom-pick
FOR MONDAY: (3/27) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend and look to take more profits and tighten stops. Not willing to bottom-pick and not sure how much of a bounce we will really get next week to make it worthwhile. We do see higher prices after USDA so it will be important to look for a ledge to buy next week for the more bullish grain contracts. Meats look generally lower at least until Tuesday.Continue reading
Stocks may complete downward patterns
FOR FRIDAY: (3/24) No Health Care vote until at least Monday will at least save our weekend and anxiety levels but stocks may complete downward patterns anyway and the latest version of the bill has gotten worse and taken out some of the bill’s good previsions. The existential dilemma is that these events create horrible congestion and then an untradeable release of energy when something happens. Knowing Washington and the cycles into Monday/Tuesday, hard to imagine a positive outcome and a positive release of upward energy for stocks. This is not a huge event really but somehow it feels like another Brexit does the media just have us hooked with their stories.Continue reading
Favoring short grains into Sunday
(3/24) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend. Cattle waiting on COF report and failed to break much on Thursday but cycles into Monday suggest a strong downward reaction. Cycles are very violent the next few sessions so trade with care.Continue reading