(3/27) With health care bill dead for now and perhaps moving to the Wall and border issue next, will the trade just ignore the failure? Cycles for stocks are still pretty weak next week and probably the following week so our guess is that things will get unnerved. Still, with just slight new pattern completions on a lot of markets, larger retracements need to happen. Markets are very volatile for the next few sessions so expect wild moves and unexpected news so be careful!Continue reading
Still not willing to bottom-pick
FOR MONDAY: (3/27) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend and look to take more profits and tighten stops. Not willing to bottom-pick and not sure how much of a bounce we will really get next week to make it worthwhile. We do see higher prices after USDA so it will be important to look for a ledge to buy next week for the more bullish grain contracts. Meats look generally lower at least until Tuesday.Continue reading
Stocks may complete downward patterns
FOR FRIDAY: (3/24) No Health Care vote until at least Monday will at least save our weekend and anxiety levels but stocks may complete downward patterns anyway and the latest version of the bill has gotten worse and taken out some of the bill’s good previsions. The existential dilemma is that these events create horrible congestion and then an untradeable release of energy when something happens. Knowing Washington and the cycles into Monday/Tuesday, hard to imagine a positive outcome and a positive release of upward energy for stocks. This is not a huge event really but somehow it feels like another Brexit does the media just have us hooked with their stories.Continue reading
Favoring short grains into Sunday
(3/24) We can be short grains into Sunday at the latest and expect that they will rubber-band bounce next week. Will have to move stops down over the weekend. Cattle waiting on COF report and failed to break much on Thursday but cycles into Monday suggest a strong downward reaction. Cycles are very violent the next few sessions so trade with care.Continue reading
NQ has already had a sucker punch bounce
(3/23) Not sure when a final vote will come in on Health Care but these things tend to drag out and thinking the market may sell first and ask questions later. NQ has already had a sucker punch bounce which makes me think that those late to the party may be disappointed. We’re going to be patient and have watched the cavalry ride the rescue much too often.Continue reading
Wheat still has a long way to fall
FOR THURSDAY: (3/23) Cattle should pause after rallying parabolicly and fall $2-3 dollar off of opening highs. Wheat still has a long way to fall and beans need to catch up. Cold storage was bearish and we fell better selling looking for lower prices into next week.Continue reading
NQ looks like done at 5309 and SP at 2332-34
(3/22) We’ve seen too many bear traps to chase shorts. NQ looks like it would be done at 5309 and SP at 2332-34, and those were old targets that we just gave up. Only seasonal weakness has us thinking something bigger could happen but news isn’t really there although overbought conditions are. Dollar looks a bit lower overnight and gold a bit higher. Lots of markets are unraveling but we’re not going to panic. Sometimes the knee-jerk reaction at overdone situations is the worst thing to do.Continue reading
Waiting a hog rebound to sell
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/22) Grain cycles are still weak into Friday but beans are not collapsing like wheat. Cattle are also holding up better than expected but should start unraveling at Thursday the latest. Waiting a day for a hog rebound to sell by Thursday.Continue reading
Cycles still suggest recovering dollar, lower metals
(3/21) Not a lot of news this week and Fedspeak may dominate headlines with Yellen on Thursday but what can she really say after raising rates? Cycles still suggest a recovering dollar and lower metals this week and we’re working on getting set up for that scenario but are patient for patterns and key numbers to complete.Continue reading
Hogs still too iffy to sell
FOR TUESDAY: (3/21) While we were in early, our bearish orientation on the week is finally showing its colors and we feel good being short all week. Cattle continues to show signs of failing and we can jump into shorts and see how far they fall into Friday. Hogs are still too iffy to sell but should be lower.Continue reading