(3/23) Not sure when a final vote will come in on Health Care but these things tend to drag out and thinking the market may sell first and ask questions later. NQ has already had a sucker punch bounce which makes me think that those late to the party may be disappointed. We’re going to be patient and have watched the cavalry ride the rescue much too often.Continue reading
Wheat still has a long way to fall
FOR THURSDAY: (3/23) Cattle should pause after rallying parabolicly and fall $2-3 dollar off of opening highs. Wheat still has a long way to fall and beans need to catch up. Cold storage was bearish and we fell better selling looking for lower prices into next week.Continue reading
NQ looks like done at 5309 and SP at 2332-34
(3/22) We’ve seen too many bear traps to chase shorts. NQ looks like it would be done at 5309 and SP at 2332-34, and those were old targets that we just gave up. Only seasonal weakness has us thinking something bigger could happen but news isn’t really there although overbought conditions are. Dollar looks a bit lower overnight and gold a bit higher. Lots of markets are unraveling but we’re not going to panic. Sometimes the knee-jerk reaction at overdone situations is the worst thing to do.Continue reading
Waiting a hog rebound to sell
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/22) Grain cycles are still weak into Friday but beans are not collapsing like wheat. Cattle are also holding up better than expected but should start unraveling at Thursday the latest. Waiting a day for a hog rebound to sell by Thursday.Continue reading
Cycles still suggest recovering dollar, lower metals
(3/21) Not a lot of news this week and Fedspeak may dominate headlines with Yellen on Thursday but what can she really say after raising rates? Cycles still suggest a recovering dollar and lower metals this week and we’re working on getting set up for that scenario but are patient for patterns and key numbers to complete.Continue reading
Hogs still too iffy to sell
FOR TUESDAY: (3/21) While we were in early, our bearish orientation on the week is finally showing its colors and we feel good being short all week. Cattle continues to show signs of failing and we can jump into shorts and see how far they fall into Friday. Hogs are still too iffy to sell but should be lower.Continue reading
Weaker dollars, higher metals, lower stocks
(3/20) We looked at cycles for Sunday and they seem more negative than positive overall if people want to be selling. That might mean weaker dollars and higher metals and lower stocks from what we could tell. Cycles turn more positive after 9 am on Monday so whatever negative impact comes, it could be retraced on Monday. We have had a bias toward lower metals and higher dollars much of next week but Sunday/Monday is still a transition time. With no major reports if G-20 or Korea don’t spur any movement, then it could also be a typical “dud” day.Continue reading
Bearish cycle for meats and grains
FOR MONDAY: (3/20) There’s a bearish cycle for meats and grains from Monday into March 25. The issue will be how much more they go up Sunday/Monday before turning. Will feel better selling more of a confirmed reversal rather than top-picking but the end of this run seems near.Continue reading
Cattle still very strong
FOR FRIDAY: (3/17) Cattle still very strong at least one more session so no hedges or sales can wait until Monday. Grains have had relatively weak bounces and we expect them to turn lower next week.Continue reading
Dollar low/gold high into Friday
(3/16) We had been looking for a dollar low into Friday and a metals high and we should get it, and then next week looks sharply higher for dollar and lower for metals and lower for stocks. We’re not clear on T-note patterns and cycles for now and will leave them alone.Continue reading