(3/20) We looked at cycles for Sunday and they seem more negative than positive overall if people want to be selling. That might mean weaker dollars and higher metals and lower stocks from what we could tell. Cycles turn more positive after 9 am on Monday so whatever negative impact comes, it could be retraced on Monday. We have had a bias toward lower metals and higher dollars much of next week but Sunday/Monday is still a transition time. With no major reports if G-20 or Korea don’t spur any movement, then it could also be a typical “dud” day.Continue reading
Bearish cycle for meats and grains
FOR MONDAY: (3/20) There’s a bearish cycle for meats and grains from Monday into March 25. The issue will be how much more they go up Sunday/Monday before turning. Will feel better selling more of a confirmed reversal rather than top-picking but the end of this run seems near.Continue reading
Cattle still very strong
FOR FRIDAY: (3/17) Cattle still very strong at least one more session so no hedges or sales can wait until Monday. Grains have had relatively weak bounces and we expect them to turn lower next week.Continue reading
Dollar low/gold high into Friday
(3/16) We had been looking for a dollar low into Friday and a metals high and we should get it, and then next week looks sharply higher for dollar and lower for metals and lower for stocks. We’re not clear on T-note patterns and cycles for now and will leave them alone.Continue reading
Ready to sell more grains
FOR THURSDAY: (3/16) We are ready to sell more grains if we get another push up over the next few days and also cattle if we can get in higher and use strength to continue hedging cattle the next few days.Continue reading
FOMC surprise?
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/15) No change from this morning. Everything centers around Wednesday with the Dutch election, the FOMC rate hike (no biggie), the debt ceiling expiration and five other reports. Should be interesting. For now we can get positioned in the direction we expect things to go but these markets are always full of surprises. Keeps life interesting.Continue reading
Cattle and hog cycles very weak
FOR WEDNESDAY: (3/15) We would sell any minor bounces in grains the next day as we see pressure into March 26-27. Cattle and hog cycles are very weak and bearish also starting March 20-30 and we’ll have to load up on shorts on hedges on bounces. May be too late without a bounce there.Continue reading
Everything centers around Wednesday
(3/14) Everything centers around Wednesday with the Dutch election, the FOMC rate hike (no biggie), the debt ceiling expiration and five other reports. Should be interesting. For now we can get positioned in the direction we expect things to go but these markets are always full of surprises. Keeps life interesting.Continue reading
Tuesday best day for grains bounce
FOR TUESDAY: (3/14) Tuesday seems the best day for a bounce in grains and if it happens, we need to be selling. Still thinking the major cycle low for grains is March 26-27 but wondering if they are too oversold now. Still can get away with shorts this week. Cattle and hogs should be higher with winter snows. Continue reading
Cycles turn intense into Tuesday
(3/13) Not sure the FOMC meeting matters given a 100% chance for rate hike now and 50% even for June. The big elephant in the room remains the Debt Ceiling and I have not seen any rhetoric out of the White House to address it. Cycles turn intense into Tuesday and a number of markets point lower like crude and stocks and the dollar with gold being higher.Continue reading