Hogs may bounce for a day

FOR WEDNESDAY: (1/4) The dollar reversed to the downside today sharply but crude did also so another mixed bag day. Grains cycles are often lower the first week of the year and patterns and cycles suggest weakness. Cattle should recover but are a bit overdone and a minor pullback is healthy so far. Hogs may bounce for a day to set up a sale on Thursday.Continue reading

Meats look firm this week on cold weather

FOR TUESDAY: (1/3) First of the year trading for grains is often crazy. Weather gaps up are possible and chances are they will be sold for the rest of the week and that is our strategy. Meats look firm this week on cold weather but it’s relative and not as bad as early January can be. Off to the races. Wishing you a successful trading year!Continue reading

Favoring long stocks, dollar next week

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Not expecting much going into a quiet holiday weekend. If there are no violent shocks over the weekend, we do want to be long and stocks and the dollar next week and they should be oversold enough for better risk/rewards. Crude looks lower next week and gold and silver are topping on Friday and lower into next week.Continue reading

Lower grains next week

FOR FRIDAY: (12/30) Final day of the year may have funds doing position squaring and hopefully cattle are lower because they have been higher all week and not pulling back. We do see lower grains next week and will exit longs and look to get short on Monday night or Tuesday if we can get a decent risk/reward.Continue reading

Higher grains into Friday

FOR THURSDAY: (12/29) Thin market conditions are not making for fun trade and we might normally just sit back but there were some clear patterns and cycles, and we still think that is the case. We will go with higher grains into Friday and then lower next week and still looking for pullbacks on cattle the next few days and rallies on hogs.Continue reading

More position squaring in play

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/28) The Brits and Canadians are back from Boxer Day on Wednesday so volume should increase a bit on Wednesday. The world seemed to survive terrorist threats over the weekend and that may still allow a last-week final bounce. Still may not get much of anything this week but year-end book-squaring and we’re starting to think a lot of sideways action going nowhere in all the markets until volume returns after vacation. We are inclined to expect end-of-the-week position squaring and then completions of key patterns in early January.Continue reading

OK buying pullbacks on grains

FOR WEDNESDAY: (12/28) We had higher grains this week but never like to play the first day of three-day weekends although funds do and they got a bit crazy. Grain cycles look higher into the New Year and we’re OK buying pullbacks and exiting by Friday or near the open of next Tuesday. Cattle may hold up on Wednesday but look lower into the end of the year and hogs look higher all week.Continue reading

Year-end bounce possible

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Post-holiday markets are hard to trade because of the release of pent-up energy from lack of trading. Given closed European markets, that may not be an issue this week. The Brits and Canadians take an extra day off for Boxers Day so that keeps volume lighter. The world seemed to survive terrorist threats over the weekend and that may still allow a last-week final bounce. Still may not get much of anything this week but year-end book-squaring.Continue reading

May get short-covering on grains into Tuesday’s low

FOR TUESDAY: (12/27) Grains may be done to the downside by Tuesday and recover next week. We usually like to favor shorts into the end of the year but it may be that we get short-covering from oversold conditions into Tuesday’s low. The Dec. 1 cattle on-feed report looked neutral to a bit negative: on feed, 99%; placed in November, 115%; marketed in November, 117%. The Dec. 1 Hogs & Pigs report was a bearish surprise: total hogs, 104%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for market, 104%. Cattle look lower all week and hogs may have a wash-out day on Tuesday and then have nowhere to go the rest of the week.Continue reading